gymengineer

20 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I think the issue with that is that Hurricanes are one solid unit.  They don't have to rely on timing, and surrounding shortwaves to form a storm.  I would think that makes things a ton easier for models.  And remember, they are using the same models as we use for winter time also.  

They also have access to HCCA and FSSE, which often are the top performers and even sometimes outperform the official forecast track. There was the whole reveal this past fall of the 2020 contract between NOAA and RenaissanceRe that keeps the HCCA forecasts, with proprietary techniques from the insurance risk firm, from the public for 5 years.

I just don't remember- what were the models showing during the "gone" period for the two January snowstorms last year that came back in under 48-hours? Did they send the snow to our north or to our south in the medium term?

1 minute ago, LVblizzard said:

Nothing will ever top March 2001. I was only 7 at the time, so I don’t remember it, but some of the anecdotes I’ve seen on here have been wild. Apparently there was a huge blizzard for I-95 predicted 2 days out, then everything shifted dramatically north at the last minute and the big cities got a brief period of snow that tuurned quickly to a mix and rain. And of course I’ve heard of the John Bolaris fiasco with that storm.

Yup, I have the Philly weather book by his former coworker which describes in detail the fiasco, including the TV crawl he put out way too early to hype up the storm.  

I feel like we'd all avoid the peaks and valleys of modeling at range if we adopted the mindset of a NWS meteorologist doing their job. Like no watches issued day 3 and beyond. Snow maps only to 72 hours. Only the range of possibilities discussed in the medium range. Use of probabilities. 

10 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

In the Philly subforum we accepted defeat yesterday, thinking okay, at least it’ll still be a decent storm for DC who hasn’t seen much in recent years. But now it looks like it’ll miss you guys too. I can’t recall another time when the models just kept trending worse and worse and worse for days at a time, to the point where there’s barely even a storm anymore. I’ve been in this hobby for nearly two decades, and while there has obviously been a fair share of storms that look great and then fizzle out, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a snowstorm threat shit the bed in such a sudden and dramatic fashion like this.

At least there was a trend in the medium term and the bust was not literally the day of, which we do regularly. 

8 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

A few days ago someone mentioned February 1989 analog showing up. We were under a Winter Storm Warning for 6-10 and never sniffed a flake. I think Eastern shore got crushed. Maybe Norfolk too.

That’s why I was puzzled when someone brought up 2/89 as an analog as if it were a good thing. 

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That analog list kind of backs up my point.  There are a few SE misses...but because they were really weak sauce waves not some 16" snowstorm.  The March 2016 storm for example...yea it missed because the wave was a pathetic pos that didn't give anyone more than 2-4".  

Some of the Spring storms are hard to apply because they happened after the thermals had deteriorated such that there isn't much we can take from what would have happened in a colder regime. 

The rest were either DMV area Jacks or storms that Jacked just north of us.  

I counted 7 that were 4”+ for parts of this sub forum- what I think you’re referring to as the DMV jackpots. 3 had 10”+ amounts (I didn’t count the 1/19 date  because it was too far in date from 1/12-13/19).

But only one, 2/06, was a megalopolis storm. That storm as most of us know was very significant, though, as it reached NESIS Category 3.

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

How about Baltimore?

6.0”

9 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Euro still keeps the HECS scenario in play. Has there ever been a storm with this kind of result, though? A storm that destroyed that specific area? Not one that comes to mind. Usually it’s either a southern slider, a region-wide hit or it’s one of those coastal scrapers in Nina’s that hit the beaches, NYC and NE.

1/1940- 21” at Richmond, 9.5” in DC, 12” in southeast DC, 24” into PG county. 

1 minute ago, Negnao said:

2/10 was definitely more than 20 at DCA and indeed they had an initial observation closer to what Dulles got. They then revised that observation but also acknowledged that they lost the snow board during the storm. Essentially they guessed. 

That was the measurement issue I was referring to. It was the 1/2016 blizzard. Here's the service assessment report where they acknowledged the snowboard issue but refused to change the result (see page 20): https://www.weather.gov/media/publications/assessments/2016_blizzard_snowfall_evaluation.pdf

And any storm since Knickerbocker that could have cleared 20" at DCA had small flaws. 2/10 was above freezing there at the start, so lost some precipitation to melted snow. 1/96 had the dry slot/sleet lull. 1/16 had the dry slot lull (and measurement failure). Of course, 2/03 was mix-y.  And just not enough precip in 2/79, 2/83 and 12/09. 

I think in terms of modeling, 1/16 had the best shot for 20", but I remember how bleak it was in here for downtown DC folks during the lull- the duration of it was unexpected.  

1 minute ago, Quasievil said:

So what time frames are we talking here?

12Z GFS looks like 18Z (1pm) Wednesday start time.
12Z CMC looks like 6Z (2am?) Thursday start time.
12Z ICON has 12z (11am) Wednesday start time.
I don't have access to the 12Z EURO.

Interesting we don't have a solid agreement on WHEN.

 

 

Pivotal is free for the Euro: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full

The surface depiction on the GFS at hr 144 is a complete mess with the double low structure. All the other globals have one coherent low.

It’s not about any model run, IMO. It’s that any model that catches the phasing spits out a historic East coast storm up through the northeast.
That isn’t a high probability outcome, but  the potential is still being shown on every model suite. 

I was thinking "Thank goodness the Super Bowl is literally going on right now" when wxtrix posted about her cataract appointment. 

6 hours ago, RodneyS said:

The DCA measuring gurus have helped you and a number of other folks by revising downward yesterday's snow total there from 0.5 to 0.3 inches.  It would be interesting to know how these revisions come about -- perhaps some of the gurus don't realize that you are not supposed to take snow away from the measuring location to make a snowman?   In any event, here is the slightly revised leaderboard, subject to further revisions without warning.

P.S. I have listed in red all of the unfortunates who have been eliminated . . .  whoops, that includes me. 

 

Where are you seeing this? The Daily Almanac (and monthly daily data) for 2/12 is still showing 0.5". 

4 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

 

Before my time, but record searching most spots this way were 15-22 inches from it.

It was similar to March 1958 for the I-95 corridor in that even the close-in suburbs with elevation did much better than the downtowns. 11" at Silver Spring and Falls Church, 19" at Rockville, 20" at Leesburg. Somehow, Richmond managed 15.2". 

Very strong burst of wind through here just before the special weather statement was issued at 3:38 pm. I see they've gone with an advisory now.

6 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

CIPS analog system at T+156 with a signal here.

That trajectory reminds me a lot of 2/6-7/03. 

https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2003/07-Feb-03.html

29 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

It was 96. I stopped listening to Bob Ryan after that. 

I am 100% positive it was not the blizzard of 96. This news article describes the exact Friday night broadcast where he was the first to declare that we would be seeing a top 5 storm for DC. He later described in the annual NBC4 Weather Almanac that he had seen the latest ETA run and came to that conclusion.

 https://washingtoncitypaper.com/article/454114/will-the-weather-be-the-same-without-bob-ryan/

"As the blizzard of ’96 (still the third-largest three-day snowfall in recorded D.C. weather history, despite Snowmageddon and its ilk) approached, Ryan was getting punchy. A day or two before the snow arrived, I was home from college, watching the news with some friends in one of their parents’ basements. I don’t remember exactly what Ryan said, and I haven’t been able to dig up any video online of the broadcast I have in mind, but 17 years later, I still remember marveling at the tone he struck on the air that night: One part alarmed, one part a little overwhelmed, three parts very, very, excited about the weather we were all about to experience."

4 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

Inside joke among longtimers - every so often a winter weather poster wanders into the site and only posts extreme IMBY questions and obs - the memorable ones to my aging memory in the last decade are the Short Pump person, Carbondale (who wasn’t even from our posting forum) , the “NE MD pummeled” poster (who is still around but karma has been making those obs irrelevant for six years now), and Ji.*
 

*I kid     **
 

** sorta

This made me laugh out loud. I remember those posts. 

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Washington, DC picked up 6.3" of snow. This was the second 6" or above snowstorm this winter. The last time that happened was Winter 2013-2014.

I've posted about this before- the group of winters when DCA has 2 or more 6" storms is extraordinary in terms of final seasonal totals.

13 hours ago, BlizzardNole said:

LOL at NWS still having my area at 4-6 when we barely have 2 and it's over.  Just like last time WSW for 3-5 and we got 1.5.  They should start using cm for snow forecasts

Why were you so adamant about the storm being over last night when it was clear on radar it was going to continue? You posted the same thing at 1.5" too. And now, you're reporting around 3" when the lowest report in Montgomery County in the latest PNS is 3.4" and the rest of the reports are 3.6"-6.3".

Your neighborhood must just really have a snow-shield microclimate. 

13 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Indeed.  When I was a wee lad, I used to get so mad at him

He had some terrible decisions, like downgrading 2/11/06 to 3-5" just because it was rain/snow mixed in the afternoon. That was the "RAP storm" where Zwyts and company all stayed up late to experience some of the most intense snow bands in the overnight. 

And he called for 50's and rain multiple times in ice storm/sleet storm situations where CAD was obvious leading into the event. 

The one major plus side event he nailed was buying the ETA output and declaring the Blizzard of 1996 as a top 5 event for DC on Friday night's 11 pm broadcast, before any other DC TV met did. By the next morning, the events were set in motion for a Saturday pandemonium in preparation for the storm. 

So, just based on recent reports in this thread, 5" has crossed southern Fairfax County, 4" Falls Church and up to Vienna, the NOVA airports came in at 3" for 7 pm, and Columbia and even BWI were around 2". It looks like the gradient has been more relaxed DC northeastward, and as tight as expected south of DC.