gymengineer

I know I haven’t posted much lately so maybe I missed something… did some other sub-forums turn to no moderation as practice? The New England sub-forum reads as a “post anything you want.”

I just popped into the New England sub-forum 

A lot of focus was on the storm surge record at Cedar Key, but it looks like Steinhatchee also easily broke its record set by Hermine. And Clearwater Beach had its highest water level as well, breaking the record set by the 1993 Superstorm. St. Petersburg was really close to its record water level as well, ending up a close second. 

What’s happening right now in SE Virginia is a bit unexpected, right? TS-force gusts and a solid rain shield…covered by wind advisories and coastal flood warnings. 

Charleston at 9+ ft above MLLW about half an hour ahead of high tide:

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/map/index.html?id=8665530
 

This event could slip between Matthew and Irma for #4. 

Time sensitive- but it’s fascinating to me that one of the planes’ sole flight pattern for the past couple of hours is to find winds- and maybe pressure, which it did find- to justify an 11 pm upgrade to Major Hurricane status.
 

Meanwhile the other one is doing “normal” geographical sweeps through quadrants. 

3 minutes ago, George BM said:

It's actually 968mb at the surface on that sonde... there's just no wind data at the very surface for some reason... so probably good for 967/966mb.

Whoops, glanced too quick. Thanks for pointing that out!

Two things that make Idalia seem ominous: 

1) The forecast track adjustments for multiple advisories in a row is heading toward the biggest population centers, not away (e.g. Irma away from Miami, and at the end, Ian away from Tampa Bay).

One more eastward adjustment brings landfall to Cedar Key, and that track change plus any increase in intensity forecast would send the 5-8’ storm surge zone to include Tampa Bay. 
 

2) There was so much more notice for Ian and especially Irma (Cat 5 monster days away). Tuesday night, Idalia will be at the latitude of Tampa Bay. We’re going to be within the ideal start of the evacuation timeframe by the end of this evening. 

It happens quite a bit… when recon is investigating but the package has to go out. The NHC isn’t shy about issuing updates whenever. 

45 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Yep.. I screwed up then reposted and screwed up again. Thx. 

Or, you could have passed it off that you were trying to convey how the earlier intensity forecasts were way underdone for Michael’s landfall….which your map does show. 

The LA 911 link above is showing multiple flooding calls, a debris flow, and a water rescue…within the past hour. 

Significant power outages extend into much of northwestern VA, so the lines did have a fairly wide footprint in impacts. It just didn’t bullseye the DC metro area. 

https://poweroutage.us/area/state/virginia

https://poweroutage.us/area/state/maryland

22 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

That's really impressive in the post tree massacre (the companies sheering off a ton of trees near power lines) era. 

Yeah, I think for the more immediate DMV region, this was a top-3 most power-disruptive event since the 2012 Derecho. (Sandy later that year was somewhat muted in outages).
 

The big wind event in March 2018 was more than today, but I don’t think there are two other greater outage events since 2012. 

So it looks like peak outage for the more immediate DMV was 150,000+ customers, and 250,000+ customers for the states of VA and MD combined. 

Two days in a row of spectacular wind burst here in N. Bethesda. This one was/is accompanied by moments of complete whiteout. Right now is complete white-out again.
 

One area across the street never got its power back before this round. 

Across from Pike and Rose in North Bethesda just now: wind gusts associated with rain just knocked roofing or siding from a construction high rise site, which hit a power line on Rockville Pike. A huge green flash and pop happened and now power is out in the neighborhood. 

I know multiple people have pointed this out toward the beginning of the season, but  watching this video just reiterates that the degree of “urgency” you may feel about this winter partly depends on whether you got flush-hit on 1/3/22. That was such a quality, high impact snowstorm for much- but of course not close to all- of this sub forum. 

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

The goalposts are moving so fast in here. Need to call in Justin tucker for the 72yd field goal into the wind.

Lol, exactly. Now this is supposed to be about cities all around the country? And the obsessive troll responses to the same post…

Ah, there it is. That’s the whole agenda, lol. 

10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Been awhile. Never got below 10 last winter. Probably 2019 since single digits. 

Thanks! I am intrigued in the “by 8 pm” part. I’m sure there’s been some calm evening after a big snow where radiative cooling allowed the temp to plummet below 10F shortly after sunset. But for a CAA scenario, I can’t remember off the top of my head the last time we (I-95 corridor and close in suburbs) managed single digits so early in the evening. 
 

Of course we did it in 1/1994, but I must be missing a couple or a few other cases since. 

32 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

9.9! Single digits!

I don’t know if you keep records so specific, but have you ever/when was the last time your current location fell under 10F by 8 pm?

This Buffalo blizzard has got to be among the most intense ever for a city of over 100,000 people in the US. The great New England ones have matched wind-wise for a period, but not as long this one is going to rage at 60+ mph. And of course, multiple instances of zero visibility is quite hard to achieve right at the official reporting station. 

This construction crane has been swaying back and forth, and the arm has swung by more than 90 degrees.

Lots of standing water in the parking lots around here. Shaded puddles are starting to freeze.

11 minutes ago, RDM said:

Curious which source you use?  From the DOM web site, they currently have 77,700+ customers out.   Albeit DOM does not provide service to all of VA.  They had about 2K out as of 0800.  

For those who don't have it already, here's the link to the DOM outage map

https://outagemap.dominionenergy.com/external/default.html   

 

 

https://poweroutage.us