gymengineer
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Posts posted by gymengineer
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20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
Other than strong ninas, I don't mind cold enso. Not my fave but most weak/mods pull off at least one compressed stretch of cold with chances. Some can be busy. I like having a cold Canada. Seems to be becoming more important as the years go by.
09-10 killed off part of this hobby unfortunately. Recency + the absurd nature of the storms makes everyone want a repeat. Big storm or bust attitude ever since. Nobody seems to really like our typical/avg events anymore. It gets treated like a consolation prize or criticized to death. I enjoy small events. We used to have fun with, take pics of, and celebrate car toppers here. Those days seem like another lifetime ago now.
I still enjoy small events too. I took pictures of pavement being covered Friday evening. And I really enjoyed the 2” we got on the scraps of another Boston blizzard on 1/26/2015. Comparing to what’s happening in other locations only limits the ability to actually enjoy falling snow.
And comparing to 09/10, as you said, is bonkers. Just simply on a return period way of thinking, it took about 110 years to have a return on 1898/1899. The fact that DCA was the site for beating 54” vs. in NW DC, and you can add in even more years. (BWI and IAD clearing 70”- even more absurd!) I gladly regard that winter as the winter of a lifetime snow-wise, but even there, other more recent winters have produced extremes in ways 2009/2010 didn’t.
Like, mid-February through early March 2015, with the extreme cold that never happened during 09/10, plus multiple moderate to major snow events and the top March freezing rain event, sits very high on my enjoyment list.
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1 minute ago, Swiscaster said:
So I’ve lived here forever and I don’t ever remember a similar scenario to what is being forecast (let’s say 1-2”). It seems we either get snow from the coastal or we get totally shut out. When is the last time we got snow in a setup like this (assuming we miss all from the coastal)? I’m legit asking, not being negative or anything. I just can’t recall.
We got in the scraps of the storm that this one has been compared to many times because of the Euro/NAM failure in NYC. Boston did get crushed to start their record snow blitz: 1/26/2015.
1-3” started falling in the evening in our area as the coastal was deepening too far east to deliver 20-30” for NYC.-
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I don’t understand how someone with so little control over his temper, reverting back to a toddler-like mindset, thinks telling other people to “grow up” makes any sense.
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6 minutes ago, KAOS said:
Really don't understand the confusion. I thought this was the mid-atlantic forum... not the lower mid-atlantic forum. Maybe it is just me? Judging from the models and climo I would say that the vast majority of people in the mid-atlantic forum will not see much... if anything. Hence my comment "grasping at straws".
There is no confusion actually when people are just posting around your posts. You’re the one who’s confused about the importance your sequence of posts.
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Anyone else seeing blue flashes every ten minutes or so? Power is flickering here in North Bethesda, but in the flicker off moments, the blue flashing is pretty eerie.
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15 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:
Charlottesville: maybe 6” of snow, some ice, less rain, back at college a few days early
Arlington: maybe 3” (okay 1” probably) of snow, maybe some ice, rain, maybe a Monday snow shower, home cooked meals
Tough call.You’ve seen enough moderate snowstorms (6-8”) that I don’t know if it’s worth it to travel just for another one. I get you may want to be back early, but home cooked meals also are a luxury you’ll probably miss one day in the future.
Maybe that would be an interesting poll question- what threshold of snow would it be worth it to travel for?
The way I see it, I’ve already experienced five 20”+ snowstorms so far in southeast Montgomery County. So to travel, it would have to be for something extraordinary. Like if I would only get 5” while somewhere relatively close is getting 45”.
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17 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:
Like what?
Oh, his Annapolis tornado antics is just one example. And his response to other meteorologists’ criticism of him for that reinforced a pattern.
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11 minutes ago, WinterFire said:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2022/01/13/winter-storm-east-coast-snow/
CWG’s write up, nothing new or terribly revelatory. My wish for 2022 is that the Post springs for an editor for this specific author. His writing is just *awful* and it drives me crazy that’s he’s become somehow the lead communicator for CWG…
He’s certainly ruffled a lot of feathers lately for a bunch of other reasons.
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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
He probably got them here
Fun fact for the newer posters: Ray Martin worked at LWX and would post here. After the 2016 Blizzard, he participated in the heated discussions on here about DCA’s snow total for the storm.
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24 minutes ago, mattie g said:
Nuts that I can't recall it.
It’s probably because you had to stay up overnight to see the peak of it. It started when most people would be going to bed. By the time I walked outside at 9 am, my street was already plowed. We (weatherboard folks) spent the rest of the day waiting for the ULL backside snow. The RGEM spit out an insane solution on one run of like 15”+ with the ULL passage.
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16 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:
Wrong storm. That was the Blizzard of 1996 which was its predecessor. This was afterwards. They got 6-10" at Dulles from this one according to the snow data
This was the storm that caused the panic on Wednesday after the blizzard because the ETA run showed over a foot of snow/sleet for the region. And this was after the clipper surprised everyone with 3-6” from DC eastward on Tuesday.
By later Thursday, the models had cut back QPF so the forecast was for a moderate snow to sleet storm, not another new crippling situation.-
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Since when has Roger Smith become a comedy act? His travelogue and spiritual counseling comment as the whole “Are you driving over the Blue Ridge to get to Winchester?” discussion was going on made me laugh out loud.
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3 hours ago, WVclimo said:
WxMachine ?
The best part was the predictions were often more accurate than what others in here were predicting because the totals were model blends, whereas others hoped against hope that the model with the snowiest solution would verify.
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2 hours ago, Cobalt said:
Some rudimentary research, but here's what I could figure out.
1978-01-29 Follows a sizeable MA/NE storm on the 20th and predates the New England blizzard during Feb 5-7th (which we got scraps from).
1961-01-25 Follows a decent storm from the 18th-21st and predates a sizeable one from Feb 2nd-5th. DCA had a high of 18 and a low of 8 on the 25th, so a pretty frigid timeframe.
2007-01-28 Couldn't find much until well after
Nice research! Just a couple of notes on these quoted dates:
The blizzard of 2/78 was a also a significant snowstorm from the northeast DC suburbs and northeastward, including Baltimore and especially northeastern MD. Immediate DC and west of the city did miss out.
1/26/61 was the only significant snow you missed on your entire list. 5.9” storm for DC.
The end of January 2007 was notable not for a specific storm but for marking the pattern change that brought a wintry and very cold February.
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21 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:
Just went out for a walk, pretty interesting snow depth difference from grass to pavement. Almost 1/3 when compared...wonder why the cold smoke fluffy dendrites falling at 3am didn't accumulate all that great on the pavement?
The contrast here between Monday and last night, when I woke up to watch it fall between 1:30 and 4, was pretty striking. Heavy, wet snow on Monday overcame daylight and 60’s the afternoon before to efficiently stick on roads. Fluff during the dead of night did not.
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Probability of >4” pretty high in this product:
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Fozz and BobChill
Bizarro-world with the NAM and GFS reversing roles in the QPF.
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So 12 preliminary EF2 tornadoes within a derecho. This must be unprecedented, right?
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The smaller towns in between will take longer for their stories to be told. This is Bremen:
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31 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:
Not seeing anything close to this on official guages:
Max today MHHW 3.33 ft
Isabel MHHW 5.18 ft
Also, here's LWX's Local Storm Report about the record:
000 NWUS51 KLWX 292317 LSRLWX PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 716 PM EDT FRI OCT 29 2021 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0642 PM COASTAL FLOOD SOLOMONS ISLAND 38.32N 76.45W 10/29/2021 ANZ542 MD MESONET THE NOAA TIDE GAUGE AT SOLOMONS ISLAND INDICATED THE GREATEST TIDAL CREST IN ITS RECORDED HISTORY, REACHING 4.46 FEET THIS EVENING AT 6:42 PM EDT. THE PERIOD OF RECORD INCLUDES THE PREVIOUS HIGHEST CREST, WHICH WAS RECORDED DURING HURRICANE ISABEL ON SEPTEMBER 19, 2003. && EVENT NUMBER LWX2106269 $$ LEE-
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18 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:
Not seeing anything close to this on official guages:
Max today MHHW 3.33 ft
Isabel MHHW 5.18 ft
Using this from weather.gov: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=lwx&gage=slim2
4.81 vs. 4.45
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Solomons Island, MD, easily beat their all-time record highest water level, with water still rising until 10 pm. Here are the storms tonight's water level beat, from now 2nd place on down to 7th place: Isabel, Ernesto, Ash Wednesday '62, Connie, Fran, and Juan remnants.
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Alexandria already in with the third highest water level behind Isabel and 1936, before what was supposed to be the highest peak tonight:
https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=lwx&gage=axtv2
I think that list is definitely missing some events, though, like Fran, Hazel, etc.
Cambridge, MD, is going well ahead of the forecasted curve:
https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=akq&gage=camm2
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March Banter 2022
in Mid Atlantic
Posted
After Temple’s ridiculously good premier in the EAGL Championships where they won last year, I’ve been following the program this whole season. Didn’t watch EAGL’s session 1 today, but I did look at scores and saw Temple did well to break 196 in the first session.
Congrats on your daughter being a part of a surging program!