snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Ok. I’m not saying the NPAC hasn’t resembled a Nino. I was speaking in terms of the cold and snow so far (albeit) nothing like 10-11 snow wise to this point. There are very clearly Niña influences in this pattern and the tropical PAC is and has been very strongly into a Niña state. There’s also no guarantee that the NPAC stays in a Nino like state either
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As far as La Niña winters go, just in terms of cold, not snow so far obviously, maybe 10-11 wasn’t too horrible of an analog, 10-11 was night and day at this point with the record -NAO/-AO blocking. That winter was a classic front-loaded Niña too. If that’s the canonical Niña progression we are going to follow, the cold/blocking hangs around till mid-late January, then goes -PNA/Aleutian ridge with tropical forcing in the Maritime Continent
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We’ll see, my guess is that a -PNA takes shape mid-late January
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So much for all the non stop +TNH hype for weeks on end. If that’s correct, that’s not +TNH…..no Hudson Bay vortex
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Just saw a measurement of 2.4 in Sloatsburg. So really not that much more than NYC. I think the official city measurement is like 1.7 or something like that
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2-3. I was expecting an inch or so yesterday based on what the morning Euro was showing but it overperformed. The Euro is not what it used to be
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The NAM is total outlier garbage. Throw it in the dumpster. The EURO is the way to go. While it’s not great in the longer range sometimes, when you’re this close in, the Euro is deadly accurate
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We are and have been very strongly into La Niña mode
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Westerlies in regions 1+2 and 3 are normal in CP Niña events. Those regions stay warmer than where the event is centered in 3.4
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As classic a CP Nina as you will ever see. Surface and subsurface. I do not believe for one second that we see a sustained +PNA January. In fact, I think we go full on -PNA especially mid-late month
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New NWS forecast: https://www.weather.gov/okx/winter
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Ok
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I’m as confused as you
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Noise. Nothing has changed since yesterday, very good model consensus (minus the awful NAM) on less than an inch for NYC and 1-2 for the NW suburbs, with the 2 inch amounts being up towards Orange, Passaic, Sussex. @donsutherland1
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The NAM should have been discontinued years ago. I can’t believe NWS still bothers using it, it’s horrendous and hasn’t been updated in years. It’s as outdated and embarrassing as the NOGAPS
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IMO we go -PNA next month. The big La Niña push we’ve been seeing with the forcing/standing wave/MJO/trades/SOI is not going to be denied. And it’s taking on a very Modoki signature
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All the 12z models today are an inch or less total for Friday/Friday night
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The amount of clowns on twitter saying there’s going to be a Norlun trough in NYC and NJ right now is comical
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Remember how bad the EPS was last winter when it kept incorrectly killing off the Maritime Continent convection?
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IMO, this is a meh at best, less than an inch of snow “event” Friday night. Glorified snow showers. The 0z runs trended less impressive if anything. Wouldn’t be surprised at all if the models take another step back on today’s runs
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Agreed. There is very clearly a La Niña standing wave there. Some people have no idea what they’re talking about. You don’t have Maritime Continent convection firing while in a true MJO phase 8. And the new GEPS is already showing a -PNA at the beginning of January
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The Saturday snowstorm threat is done IMO. The models would be showing it by now. It was a totally thread the needle setup and if you look back, thread the needle setups haven’t worked for us in 10 years….since 2014. January, 2016 (blizzard), March, 2018 worked because of huge -NAO/-AO blocking and ditto for February, 2021.
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See Judah Cohen’s new blog:
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If that’s correct, even if the PAC goes favorable for cross polar flow after NYD, it’s going to take AWHILE to rebuild arctic air in Canada
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How many times since the 15-16 winter have we seen the EPS/weeklies incorrectly barrel the MJO into phase 8 in the long range? I’ve lost count @jbenedet
