snowman19

It’s also one hell of a -PMM developing. Would not surprise me if we go weak La Niña. Cold-neutral is pretty much guaranteed

That’s southern hemisphere late winter or spring Ray. So our late summer or fall. BOM is Australia. They are in winter now

No not really. There is strong consensus. See @CP_WinterStorm post above this

BOM http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/?ninoIndex=nino3.4&index=nino34&period=weekly

We now have model consensus on a -IOD developing during the summer and fall

Interesting. Could definitely be playing a role in the strong +NAO winter tendency we’ve been seeing for years now. Besides the +AMO, I also think arctic sea ice and climate change have a hand in it too

Those cold SSTs off the California coast and Baja are -PMM. This -PDO regime has been nothing short of astounding

Just eyeballing the latest PAC SSTs, the PDO has gone severely negative again

Up to this point in time, I’m not seeing a ton of similarities with 2013

I really don’t like even looking at winter at this point in time, that said, at this extremely early stage, I think we can assume a few things going into fall at least…. -PDO, -ENSO (either cold-neutral or weak La Niña; possibly a Modoki, central-based event?, -IOD, -PMM, +AMO, -QBO, still active sun; high solar/geomag, but descending from the solar max peak of last winter, *possible* average to below average Atlantic hurricane season; along with either average to below average ACE, very likely below to well below average arctic sea ice again. Other than that, I wouldn’t venture into guessing the possible oscillation (PNA, EPO, WPO, AO, NAO) states until we are into fall

I would have to say I agree. It would probably take a classic (sulfate aerosol) tropical volcanic eruption of a Mount Tambora, VEI 7 scale, to have a profound effect on global temperatures at this point

We are getting multi-model consensus now on a -IOD developing this summer. If so, that will be the final nail in the coffin for any chance of a +ENSO forming…..

The current thinking is that this is going to be a central-based/Modoki -ENSO (be it cold-neutral or weak La Niña)

IMO we are at least a year away (maybe longer) from any substantial PDO change

The same repeating pattern year after year. Same background state. Different night, same ending

JB is going for a high ACE Atlantic season with above average storms as he normally does. Wants an excuse to predict a -NAO winter

2013 was not very quiet and below average, it was exactly average. There were 14 named storms and 15 tropical depressions. 14 named storms is average

I know there’s a few forecasts out there calling for a hyperactive/high ACE Atlantic season (namely JB…surprise, surprise), but this should lend some big pause:

K

The summer of 1980 was an epic furnace, start to finish. Let’s hope not….

We have been in a very rainy, cool pattern since the last week of March. That looks to come to a real abrupt end next week as the pattern does a 180

I’ve seen some musings that the very low arctic sea ice of the last decade may be playing some role in the wintertime +NAO/+AO states we’ve been seeing

A “recent” Niña with a very wet summer that comes to mind was 2011. Tropical related rains back then of course

Looks like the hurricane season forecasts are going with La Niña analogs:

I saw a theory a few years back that the PDO was tied to the solar/geomag cycles, that’s obviously a bunk theory….we are starting to descend off a solar/geomag max peak and it’s made no difference in the PDO @40/70 Benchmark “Potential Link between PDO and Solar Cycles: Some studies suggest a possible connection between the PDO and solar activity on decadal timescales. The 11-year solar cycle may modulate the PDO, influencing its effect on atmospheric circulation. Research suggests that the PDO phase can amplify or dampen the atmospheric response to solar variability. For example, a study found that the intensification of the polar vortex during solar maximum conditions is significantly stronger in the negative phase of the PDO.”