snowman19

Unfortunately I can’t find HM’s blog anymore but here is Eric Webb:

HM, in the extensive blog he wrote up right after the 11-12 winter titled “GLAAMOUROUS”. Also, Eric Webb actually touched on this association a few times last fall and cited a bunch of studies on it

If we see a cold-ENSO (cold-neutral/weak La Niña), along with the almost certain -QBO, I’m not so sure we see the strong poleward ridging that we did last winter in the PAC. The +QBO/cold-ENSO we had last winter supported the poleward ridging we saw. -QBO/cold-ENSO favors a flatter, equatorial PAC ridge. As far as the arctic and Atlantic, I would agree with you. The solar/geomag states, QBO evolution and the North Atlantic SSTA profile, at this very early stage obviously, would seemingly not be very supportive of big high latitude blocking in those domains

Agree. I think we are stuck in a -PDO decadal state for at least another year

Nothing is locked in for winter on June 1st

More of the same old. The extensive high pressure across the North Pacific is indicative of a continued -PDO regime. It’s definitely taking longer to switch modes than I thought it would. My guess is that we have at least another year to go before there is a full scale decadal change….

I made the huge mistake of thinking that Nino 2 years ago was actually going to behave like an El Niño. Boy was that thought wrong…

We have been stuck in a semi-permanent, default La Niña pattern for years now, even when we’ve had an El Niño, the background Niña state has still been there. It appears (at least so far) that we are following the exact same pattern again this year….

Have you found any correlation between cold-ENSO and the QBO? I’ve read a few studies that correlate +QBO/cold-ENSO to poleward Aleutian ridging and -QBO/cold-ENSO to a flat, equatorial Aleutian ridge

Everything was primed for -AO/-NAO high latitude blocking that winter. Textbook. Solar minimum, -QBO, Modoki El Niño, Atlantic “tripole”…..

To add to this:

After a relaxation, the models are showing another big trade wind burst in June, likely leading to some more cooling next month

There’s a very huge difference between saying something is “likely” and being “confident” in a very cold and snowy winter and using 13-14 as an analog in May when the start of winter is 7 months away

You should be confident in nothing in May regarding how this upcoming winter will play out

It followed the record breaking super El Niño of 15-16. The only reason the La Niña developed was because of the very strong -IOD that formed in the summer and fall or it would have been a 2nd year El Niño. That Nino was so strong that it completely altered the normal QBO progression, instead of progressing to a -QBO, which should have happened, it flipped right back to a +QBO that fall/winter

The research shows that +QBO in combination with -ENSO supports poleward Aleutian ridging and a cold stratosphere during the cold months. On the opposite side, -QBO/-ENSO supports a flat/equatorial Aleutian ridge and a warm stratosphere during the cold months

I think last winter’s cold was driven by the the +QBO/cold-ENSO. The +QBO/cold-ENSO combo very strongly supports the poleward ridging (-EPO) we saw. The cold was all -EPO driven. That combo also strongly supports a cold stratosphere, which is something else we saw last winter. StormchaserChuck pointed this out several times

I have a feeling this is going to be a very wet and humid summer

While we certainly appear to have already reached the “peak” of this -PDO cycle, it looks like we are still in it, probably for at least another year…..

Yea, I saw your studies on it. I believe HM also touched on it in a post here many years ago….descending solar after a max is actually worse for NAO and AO blocking than it is at peak solar max

Although nothing in weather is “impossible”, I would say an El Nino, even a weak one is extremely unlikely

Obviously way too early to even begin thinking about next winter. That said, I think the only things that are obvious at this very early juncture unless something changes dramatically and unexpectedly are: 1) “cold” ENSO is a VERY good bet (question being is it going to be cold-neutral or do we see another weak La Niña?), 2) Still elevated solar and geomag 3) -QBO 4) Hedging towards another -PDO; although not severely negative like the last several 5) possible strong -IOD? 6) Likely -PMM. That’s about it for now….

It’s starting to look like we see, at minimum, a cold-neutral ENSO, with a weak La Niña becoming a distinct possibility

The -PDO aside, the tropical indicators (IOD, PMM, trade winds, SOI, surface/subsurface ENSO profiles) are supportive of a cold-neutral at the very least, with weak La Niña turning into a possibility