snowman19

Nice post. I know you warned about it before and have been very fair….but some people have to have to face the fact that the MJO may never makes it in to phase 8. I stated my reasoning for thinking it doesn’t a few times and you were very objective about it. You also don’t want to see IO convection start firing in mid-January, something some models are showing

The other issue is this:

No surprise there. The problem is the record PAC jet, severe -PNA and actually the -NAO block, it’s shearing everything to bits. This is going to continue unabated right through the 1st week of January, at the very least: Look how ridiculously dry The extended EPS is for the next 46 days:

RNA as far as the eye can see. And yea, it loses the -AO and also wants to lose the -NAO as well come mid-January. If that’s the case, we have a problem….

The very cold and snowy end of November and December forecasts for the east are about to go down in flames….might be one of the biggest busts of all time…..

Looks like the severe -PNA continues unabated right into early-mid January….

It is very likely the -NAO/-AO breaks down come mid-January. Also looking very likely that either the MJO dies or never makes it to phase 8. The SPV remains very strong. Also, looks like IO convection starts firing at this same time

Good luck with phase 8 lol God speed!!! The phase 8 wishcast shall live in infamy!!!!

The signals for the deep -PNA/RNA, full-latitude trough in the west this month were clear as day at the end of November, even just before Thanksgiving week, the problem is some decided to ignore those warnings. And there are more warnings for January….the models are steadfast on the tropical convective forcing moving to the IO by mid-January…..I’m sure these red flags will also be ignored by some as well….

Christmas week corrected warmer big time. Deep -PNA at work

Just trapping PAC maritime air underneath

Great post as always. At least a pro met said what I’ve been saying the last month. I can’t get accused of anything now lol

And a low in the lakes where there should be a high, but it’s very close

Good luck popping a +PNA lmaooo every attempt has been a epic fail for the last 3 months and they correct even more negative as we get closer in time, as we see for Christmas week but you go with that lol

This has been the theme for months….stronger -PNA showing up as we move closer in time. Every attempt at weakening that RNA has failed since early September. On the GEFS, you can see a very deep -PNA reloading in the opening days of January….

The question then becomes the MJO….is it really just moving super slow or is something else at cause:

Correct that phase 7 isn’t bad in January, not great but not bad, however, the concerns that it doesn’t advance into phase 8 are definitely valid

I know no one wants to hear this, but there’s a chance it doesn’t propagate into phases 8, 1 and either dies out or loops back into 6. I remember a winter not that long ago where the models kept plowing the MJO into phase 8, 1 from November until March and it didn’t happen once, it kept dying in 7 and never advanced….

That +PNA fantasy in the long range yesterday didn’t take long to disappear as expected. Back to deep -PNA as far as the eye can see…..

Any +PNA (if it even happens) will be transient IMO. There is zero support for anything other than transient +PNA this winter, BUT….when and if one pops, that’s the time for an east-coast snowstorm. We watch….

I would have to agree that the end of this month into early January is colder, assuming that the MJO wave progresses normally, into 7, 8, 1, which is a big “if” right now. The question then become post 1/10. Some models are showing IO convection flaring up by mid-January. If that’s really the case (another “if) then the pattern will start to mild up as we progress into mid-late January and February in the absence of some major SSWE. There are a lot of questions going forward and given the severely -PDO and -PMM, I would seriously doubt any extended +PNA run being shown on the models. We have been constantly defaulting back to a big -PNA/RNA since the beginning of September