snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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We can keep using the persistence argument/forecast but eventually that doesn’t work anymore. Patterns are bound to change, they can’t stay the same forever, especially after almost 10 years
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Right, however, now that we have this strong El Niño event developing, coupled with a very healthy +IOD, my thinking is that this may be enough to finally break the IO and Maritime Continent MJO phases. We will have to wait and see
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Once the +IOD gets going, it’s going to produce strong subsidence over the IO and the Maritime Continent. That should effectively kill the “Niña-like” MJO wave phases
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Yes. That upcoming WWB means business. So does the developing +IOD, which is going to constructively interfere with the El Nino and you can kiss the La Niña like MJO phases goodbye
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@Gawx
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The new Euro is showing a strong +IOD developing. It’s going to constructively interfere with the El Niño. I think these MJO attempts are about to change in a big way
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The new Copernicus model run just came out today….add that to the growing list of models showing a very strong El Niño by fall
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Likely very temporary with another major -SOI onslaught and WWBs coming. Once these TC’s start forming in the Eastern Pacific, it’s only going to increase the westerlies/WWBs behind them as they move away
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The El Niño atmospheric response is increasing
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I’m not talking about him. JB said it’s turning into a Modoki
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Anything is possible and we will see. I am however very confident that this is not becoming a Modoki like some other people are wishcasting
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Region 1+2 is blazing again, up to +2.6C and climbing, region 3 is at +1.2C and also climbing. This event isn’t just east-based, it’s extremely east-based. And there’s yet another Eastern Pacific WWB/downwelling Kelvin wave
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Classic Eastern Pacific (EP) canonical El Niño. The east-based warming/WWBs/downwelling Kelvin waves just continue to get re-enforced through Bjerknes feedback:
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@Bluewave The new GEFS is showing a strong WWB in the EPAC (regions 3 and 1+2). Another big warming coming in that area? I think this event is going to be known for its WWBs and downwelling Kelvin waves in the EPAC breaking on the South American coast
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The thing is though, every Nino in history has weakened during northern hemispheric winter. Every Nino on record normally peaks in November/December then weakens in Jan, Feb, Mar. If that’s what this one does, it would be perfectly normal and expected
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ENSO region 1+2 warming again…almost up to +2.5C. Region 3 up to +1.2C and climbing…https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino3.png https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino12.png
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@Raindancewx is on board too
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The NMME is going nuclear with the Nino this summer: https://twitter.com/climate_earth20/status/1666499588201627649?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw
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The new POAMA isn’t budging. While it’s the warmest, all the other models are warming and starting to come towards a +2.0C consensus for a peak this coming fall
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Probably another round of extreme negative SOI coming in less than 2 weeks if the models are correct
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Yes, Paul Roundy said that exact same thing back at the end of April. Said we didn’t need a WWB progression like 1997 for this event to get very strong. He’s been on the very east-based El Nino migrating itself west into region 3.4 train. He still thinks this one is going to reach super
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Yes. It’s looking like the POAMA may have indeed lead the way with this one. If the models are correct and this peaks at or eclipses +2.0C in region 3.4 there will be papers written about it and it will be talked about for the next 20-30 years for the way it developed
