snowman19

I honestly did not understand why some people thought a huge +PNA was going to pop like 14-15. First off, we have a moderate basin wide La Niña, we have a strong -PDO and the semi permanent Niña driven tropical convective forcing has been over the eastern IO and the Maritime Continent for months now. The -IOD only served to reinforce the background Niña state. This is why the models are dumping the -PNA trough in the west. -PNA can still work here if you have -EPO/-NAO/-AO to go along with it, but you are going to be fighting the SE ridge. We may see RNA for a very good chunk of December

It’s favorable, however, the twitterologists are sharing the wrong MJO phase 8 composites. They are sharing +ENSO composites which features +PNA, the correct composites, which is -ENSO, December, MJO 8, show the -PNA/RNA which is to be expected in the current -ENSO background state, especially with a firmly entrenched, healthy La Niña like we have now. It’s still favorable (-AO/-NAO, -EPO/-WPO), however the -PNA obviously supports the western troughing seen on the ensembles

The PNA was never supposed to be favorable

Just keep in mind that MJO 8 in December, during a La Niña features a stout -PNA. Also features -AO/-NAO and -EPO/-WPO, which is good, but there probably will be troughing over the west coast

With an entrenched La Niña this stout, you probably are not going to see any sustained +PNA. It’s going to keep defaulting back to RNA/-PNA

The Euro bombs the low and causes a wave break, without that you don’t get the stout -NAO block .

Go back to work. There’s people pooping in the streets there for heaven’s sake .

[emoji23][emoji23][emoji23] .

Twitter had it being the Blizzard of 96 last week

Twitter is hilarious right now. You have weenies in DC and Philly saying exactly that…”It’s going to bomb out and pull down its own cold air from aloft” “It’s too early to say it’s not going to be snow it could make it’s own cold” LMFAOOOO!! [emoji23][emoji23][emoji23] .

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc&rh=2022112000&fh=240&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= .

This high solar flux isn’t as bad as 2001, so I wouldn’t expect that kind of carnage .

It’s pretty ugly as depicted. The EPO floodgates would be wide open .

Normal is the new torch lol Some people aren’t happy unless it’s 10+ degrees below normal .

Those charts aren’t accurate and almost always wrong. If you look at the actual forcing (VP) it’s in phase 6 that’s why the PAC goes to garbage .

Ok JB [emoji23][emoji23] .

The models are like a pendulum….swinging back and forth between rain and rain….

That tweet chain actually mentioned the possible storm after Thanksgiving and how it ties in with the Niña forcing but good try

It looks like the La Niña is strengthening….again:

@40/70 Benchmark Thoughts on this:

@bluewave @donsutherland1

The latest GFS was a cave towards the Euro