snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Don’t even bother looking at the NAM anymore it’s been absolutely horrible since November. That said, to me Wednesday morning is a quick inch or two then over to all rain
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Tomorrow is very doubtful but definitely growing evidence the NYC snow drought ends Wednesday morning
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It looks like this failed attempt will actually cause a ++NAO in February as well with the TPV over Greenland
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Should have said 5 mets. Steve DiMartino was big into the SSWE hype for weeks too. But that’s not a surprise coming from him
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Certain weenie mets ran with it on social media and weather enthusiasts who don’t know any better fell for all the hype. IMO they are doing a disservice to meteorology and the weather community in general by wishcasting and spreading misinformation. It’s a group of 4 mets (Joe Bastardi, Mark Margavage, Henry Margusity and Tony Pann) who are really bad and have big followings on twitter. Their followers retweet and spread their voodoo far and wide
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Looks like HM was right. The SSWE fell by the wayside. The SPV restrengthens again in February
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Looks like HM was right, the SSWE fell by the wayside. The SPV restrengthens again in February
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Larry Cosgrove says winter ends with the arrival of March in his new newsletter. Don’t know how it can end when it never even started. I guess he’s finally giving up after being wrong all winter
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I’m kinda shocked Bernie Rayno isn’t doing videos on Wednesday. Usually he’s all over possible northeast snow events days in advance. I guess either he’s busy or unimpressed by it
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The HREF is probably the closest to reality. Rain to snow setups generally underperform in our area. Also, a very marginal airmass and those 10:1 ratio maps are going to be grossly overdone
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The GFS is likely overdone for both events. That said I’m still confident in NYC seeing “something” Wednesday
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Theme of this winter. NWS Upton has zero snow south of Orange County for tomorrow/Mon: https://www.weather.gov/okx/winter
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I’m trying to be optimistic lol I’ll get accused of trolling if I say what I really think lol
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Yes. It was the 1st day of astronomical spring
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The 6z and 12z GFS are clear outliers. No other models are showing what they did. Its suppressed/cold bias was very clearly at work
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I still think NYC ends up getting measurable snow
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Besides the boundary layer being marginal, the Euro is torching the midlevels very very quickly on Wednesday on this run, way faster than any of its previous runs
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^This! Especially with an Aleutian ridge/strong RNA setup. The models have been doing this for the last 3 months only to correct as we get closer. Same story with the SE ridge
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That backend Monday on the Euro in Rockland and Westchester probably isn’t even real. It is showing sleet anyway as depicted. Don’t go by the 10:1 snow maps, they count sleet as snow
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The Euro also cut back the front-end snow for Wednesday. Most likely….probably still enough for something measurable in NYC to not break the record, it looks minuscule but may be enough
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Don’t worry, it’s the operational GFS. You can rest assured nothing even close to that will verify
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The hyped “cold” period for the end of this month has turned into just a week (1/24-1/31) of near normal temperatures
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Wednesday is not going to turn into a snowstorm for the area. While I believe NYC sees enough measurable snow to not break the 1/29/73 record, that one is going over to rain after whatever brief front-end there is
