snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Something has to completely throw a monkey wrench into February or I think that month torches. If you look at the tropical models the convective forcing wants to go to the Maritime Continent and the IO at the end of this month into early February. If that happens it’s canonical Niña, -PNA/RNA, SE ridge city .
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This run almost turned it into FROPA but it’s probably wrong. It was all disjointed, energy flying all over and this solution is most likely trash .
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The new Euro is about to be rain to Quebec City .
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I figured 01-02 would be on that list too. Kind of surprised it wasn’t. That was one of the biggest ratters of all time. Worse than 11-12 and 97-98. 19-20 was pretty ugly too from late December on .
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Not sure about ORH. This morning Eric Fisher said Boston itself is still awaiting its first inch of snow. It’s pretty wild .
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Actually I stand corrected. Boston has less than an inch for the season .
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Yep, our trace so far is actually better than Philly, Baltimore and DC. They have zero and yea Boston is just barely 1 inch for the season .
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I remember January of 2011 when JB pissed the weenies off because he forecasted that all the blocking was going to break down completely by February and not come back and winter was over. Boy did he get hate for that. That was probably the only time in his entire life that he didn’t forecast cold and snow and he turned out to be right. He was one of only a couple who called that correctly. Everyone else kept saying the blocking was coming back in February and March .
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The EPS took a fairly sizable jump to the west. With a +NAO you need a strong 50-50 low or it’s going to cut .
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It lost the 50-50 low. Rain to Montreal .
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When the GFS isn’t suppressed at this range, it’s normally a bad sign. Typically it’s way south and east then trends towards the other models in our big snowstorms. Guess we’ll see .
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Turns out MJO 8 isn’t cold when there is a strong stratospheric polar vortex .
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Hi [emoji846] .
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Be careful what you wish for if there really is going to be a strong west-based -NAO block. If there is no SE ridge, it’s suppression city
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Paul Roundy said he believes MJO phases 5-8 will be dominant this winter
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Here is some great info with graphics on east-based -NAO’s vs west-based -NAO’s
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Right, for now it is not able to couple with the troposphere, which is good for cold. The strengthening SPV is fitting with the current +QBO however
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@Bluewave The QBO finally has gone back to normal 6 years after the super El Niño. Crazy how that event completely altered normal QBO progressions
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Yes.
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It would mitigate the sometime suppressive effects of strong -NAO yes .
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I know you’re going to be shocked but I think this December is most likely going to average colder and snowier than normal even with the -PNA, the only thing I doubt with the -PNA is a KU, but overall…
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No one said -EPO/-WPO/-AO/-NAO/-PNA isn’t cold either, but just keep in mind that with the RNA you are going to have a SE ridge issue. Just because there’s a -NAO, doesn’t mean there won’t be a SE ridge, they can absolutely co-exist and will, especially with a healthy -PNA
