EastonSN+

Thinking about it, how many accumulation snowfall events did cpk have in 10/11? The big 3. The February storm that turned to rain before the pattern flip. The forgotten March overrunning event that dropped 4.5. 5 total?

Lol North Carolina beat my town for the first accumulation of the year. Flatwood, albeit in the mountains, received 0.3 from the clipper.

While I had pretty high hopes for this year, I was not well versed enough in weather to know all El ninos are not alike. The Mets at AccuWeather never predicted a big snowfall winter (they do leave the door open for a big one). "AccuWeather is predicting 18-26 inches of snow in New York City this winter, slightly below the historical average of 29.8 inches. It might take only one storm to surpass last winter's snowfall total." "While snowfall totals are forecast to be much higher compared to last winter, the frequency of snowfall may not be that much higher. Last winter, accumulating snow fell on only four days. This upcoming winter, the number of snow days is predicted to be between four and seven."

Central park recorded 7.6. Bronx 10. Lga 7.1. JFK 5.1. I like Mitch but NYC did really well considering the ultimate track. The air mass ahead of the storm was cold enough for the results.

This storm HUGGED the coast with a worse air mass than 93 and still hammered.

100 year storm.

I thought the worst large storm track to dump a lot of snow was March of 2017. Coastal hugger and still landed 9.5 inches of snow and thunder sleet. 93 was a little further offshore but much much more intense.

Great post by TIP. YES he is in the NE forum and YES even though he is in that forum EPO and WPO affect our weather too.

Amazing memory. Norwalk through Fairfield reported 11.5 inches of snow before the flip. The flash freeze made it an absolute glacier.

It's amazing how much it takes for a good wall to wall winter, or a solidly above average snowfall winter. Shows how much of an anomaly 2000 through 2018 really was (or 55 through 69 for that matter).

The lives in Massachusetts and he's a great professional so he's not just concerned with his backyard. He encompasses all of New England including SW CT with is a stones throw from central park, so his statements carry heavy weight even for our forum.

EXACTLY. This is normal to me lol. Maybe that's why I am underlaying GW lol.

We have a choice of combating GW or accelerating the plate movement it seems.

Yup. Basically last December in a nutshell. Back then we only had the weather channel and they used the phrase "just a cold snap in the northeast, don't worry warm air is heading in"

Yeah. Here in my town only 01/02, 06/07, 07/08 and 11/12 were below average snowfall winters from 2000 through 2018, however each were way below average. Of course some pretty epic years with 17/18 being my favorite. The 90s were all or nothing as well though. 93/94 and of course the historic 95/96. 92/93 was the only average snowfall winter. The remaining 7 were well below average snowfall winters. At least IMBY. I think Eastern LI may have had better luck especially in the 80s.

Yes, and that was the 90s in a nutshell so not alarming. Also, one of the posters showed that there were 70 degree days in December in the 80s (82). I know some think the 80s were frigid however I do remember roasting a lot of times too. 80s were more volatile with temp swings than (frigid) like the years of the revolutionary war with Washington crossing the ice jammed Delaware lol. Snowfall was abismal in the 80s. 2000 through 2018 was 55 through 69 and we had a 30 year snow drought in between. I EXPECT the last 5 years of results to be around for a while before we get another great period. Hopefully I am still around for it. Good news, we had some good years sprinkled in (77/78, 93/94 and 95/96).

This is a good read too on the western warm pool https://skybrary.aero/articles/western-pacific-warm-pool

And this is TYPICAL for the 80s and 90s. A couple of good periods in a winter. 2000 through 2018 (like 55 through 69) are rare and are actually what put our average snowfall totals where they are. 70s, 80s and 90s to me ARE the norm. The last 5 years, 1 above average snowfall winter, feels like normal to me lol. Poster may have to wait a couple decades to get 2000/2018 again.

Montreal and eastern Canada were hit pretty hard last night. Is this a good source region or do we prefer Alaska and wester Canada epo/PNA reasons?

What I like seeing on the ensembles are: A. The "cold pool" moves to Alaska (not a great position however a better source position instead of the other side of the hemisphere), and B. If you play the ensembles, the ridge starts to move to the PNA position. Timing aligns with phase 8 and more importantly, an El nino background. I feel like I am reliving the 80s and 90s so something will probably go wrong, but nothing at all alarming on the ensembles. Why wouldn't one EXPECT warmth in the warm phases of the MJO? Aren't el Nino Decembers warm anyway? I think posters today would think the world was ending if they relived the 80s and 90s.

For my area in SW CT, our typical first snowfall over the past 40 years has been the 3rd week of December, so not sure why there is so much dismay. I want the warm phases of the MJO to happen now.

I may be mistaken, however haven't there been a few good la Nina years where the PDO is negative? I thought El ninos typically have a trough off the west coast helping to pump the PNA.

The AO will remain negative at this time as well.

Timing could not be better for phase 8. Will probably be delaying a couple days, however looks good. I could be mistaken, however if those outliers in 6 and 7 are correct it can "punch" the PV.