EastonSN+

That had to be wayyy north. We had nothing near the coast here.

Thanks for this. Yeah in reality, December 1997 was decent for a strong El nino background state temps wise (December). Comparing the maps (which I find fun lol), the difference seems to be the trough off the west coast is slightly west of this year. Also, this year most of the PV is on the other side of the globe, in 1997 it looks as though a piece of the PV is over Alaska, could have cooled that PAC air flow a bit that year with the connection due north. Finally the Poler vortex looks consolidated in the 1997 map vs this year which looks perturbed. Do you have the same map for November 1997 as well compared to this November? Actually a little snow too, I feel that December 2015 may be a closer match from an H5 perspective, would you happen to have the same map for 2015? Snow for 1997....

I personally go off of experience and living through the 80s/90s as well as the 2000s. I have vivid memories of the late 80s and 90s and the experience was just like the last 5 winters for me. Why do the last 5 winters have to be a new reality when we have seen these setups and frequencies in the past? In my opinion we have a long period of time to wait and collect data until we can know the answer. Maybe a climatologist can publish and in depth paper on the differences between that 30 year period and the last 5 years. Also, 1955 through 1969 compared to 2000 through 2018. In GUESSING, I would have to think that they would match up relatively well (and so nobody thinks I do not believe it's getting warmer out, baseline temperatures adjusted up for both periods by whatever the number is). In the meantime there will always be disagreements between the audience members, which is healthy and leads to debates and knowledge growth. My stance is per the above based on experience, and I am open to change as time goes by. At the current time, living through both periods, I am not at the point yet where I can agree we have past a point where we have shifted to new pattern regimes.

Last year was due to (b) below, a deep west coast trough. A phenomenal year for California though as the reservoirs and snow pack increases were tremendous! This year is due to (a) below. Another relatively high percentage warm setup for us. 2000 through 2018 we saw (c) ex. 13/14, 14/15 and (d) 02/03 a lot. We are in (and it makes me cringe) a 1970s through 1990s streak of winters which unfortunately happen a higher percentage of the time. The good news is we had good winters sprinkled in like 77/78, 93/94 and 95/96 in that 30 year period. In the last 5 years we had 21/22 as a really good winter sprinkled in.

For those who want to see how a vortex off the west Coast can and has (now and in the past) flood Canada with PAC air, run the loop of the latest EPS. In the image below, see that deep blue, that spin is rapidly pushing warm PAC air into Canada (like a river from SW to NE). A problem with stronger El ninos. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=nhem&pkg=z500a

I have to believe Canada looked the same w/r/t cold air as well in 97/98, as the vortex off the WC continuously flooded the continent for an extended period.

I think the other guy meant El ninos of this strength. 1982, 1997, 2015.

Although that poses an interesting question, if the world were flat what would the weather patterns be like.....

Thanks. He was born in 1906 (lived to be 99), so #3 or #4 could have had been the period. Back then they had those wooded sleds with the metal runners.

Thanks for this, Luck HAS to be a factor when comparing the two periods (90s to this one) as both were hostile background states. I really really wish we had these stats preceding 1963 as my grandfather always told the story of getting a sled for Christmas and it did not snow at all the entire year LOL.

17/18 was my snowiest March/April in my areas history, and the 5th snowiest winter in my lifetime. I loved the epic heatwave in February too which was great and had a snowstorm in the middle of the warmth lol.

Yup, at least we had 20/21 which as a good winter. Outside of that pretty bad. 18/19 was ok in that it was slightly below average snowfall largely saved by March (also an 80s 90s feature).

Here are all three for the audience. All have some RNA level, while the NAO region is the major difference.

Yeah, I saw this and it's definitely a possibility. Lol I didn't want to re live the 80s/early 90s "cutter/suppressed/cutter" pattern that dominated back then, but we have avoided it for the most part for over 25 years so I can't complain. Joking aside, I do like the fact that we are still seeing signs of blocking and strong El ninos outside of 97/98 do typically have that 2 to 4 week deep winter periods (albeit usually late January and February). Also, the suppressed look could benefit our friends in the DC region. 2 years ago the Delmarva/Virginia cashed in so they are always too far north or too far south lol.

Further to my previous post here is a great response from ORH_wxman who is one of the most knowledgeable posters I have seen.

Only the GEPS degraded. To me it looks as though the EPS more or less held while the GEFS improved. My trepidation comes from the fact that this is a strong El Nino and they are never wall to wall winters, therefore "delayed" looks may be more realistic than a moderate El Nino. Here is the EPS (middle ground between the great GEFS look and and eh GEPS look). While yes the PNA progresses to negative, the NAO is progressing to negative as well. Now, I know last December has a lot spooked that the "NEG NAO no longer works", however that was only due to the fact that we had an extreme trough off the west coast and California, if we stop the RNA here and build a Neg. NAO, then we are in business.

Yup, January looks better atm.

At the risk of experiencing the eye of the Tiger, wasn't last December's failure due to the depth and positioning of the west coast trough? I do not see how we could have realized success with that setup. Are there any examples of a similar setup resulting in a snowstorm for our area?

From the MA forum for a positive thought.

Now THIS is the COD lol.

GEFS now has the best H5 look in the LR. I know there is a bit of a split flow on the EPS, however still want less of a trough off the west coast and more heights over Greenland (to me this still looks like Canada is receiving PAC air). This is why I hate strong El ninos.

My first time hearing that GW was ending winter was 1988 and as a kid it was pretty disappointing, especially since the previous few winters were duds. Then the Thanksgiving snowstorm of 1989 hit.

Actually forgot about this biggie....

I wonder if CPK November snowfall has been higher than December over the past 5 seasons. I know there was at least one major November snowfall event.

Higher heights in Alaska would promote colder air. Higher heights in Greenland would provide blocking. Only concern is the lack of a PNA.