EastonSN+

Just your typical 971 on Long Island.

Found this when searching. It's odd when I grew up in the 1980s I always remember everybody complaining how warm the winters were and how El nino became a common phrase LOL. Global warming finally became a common topic during the eighties. "New York City's average winter temperature is characterized by daily highs that decrease from 49°F to 45°F, rarely falling below 26°F or exceeding 61°F. In January, the average daily temperature ranges from around 22°F to 38°F, but it's common for temperatures to drop below freezing, especially at night. New York's average annual temperature has warmed 3°F since 1970, and is projected to rise by another 3°F by 2080. The state is also expected to experience more days above 90°F and more heat waves in the future."

I do see what you're seeing as well, I just feel like 6 years is an extremely small sample size. If this continues then I can definitely be convinced and I am open-minded to it I just need more time and data. Living and experiencing the 1980s and 1990s have really given me pause as I remember them being very warm and snowless and that may be skewing my viewpoint now.

Looks like the axis of the trough is once again on top of us which is not good. Hoping we could potentially get an RNA to help pump the southeast ridge however with blocking that just may end up shredding any shortwave that gets up here.

Agreed, which is basically what the 1990s were, and how you pointed out that was the start of the high volatility time frame. A good sign for us though was we got a KU event just 3 years ago so not too far back in the rear view mirror and we did have a KU in 2018 and 2017 each March. My personal benchmark is 1970 through 1999 and I'm fairly confident we can beat that this decade. In any event this will be fun to watch and track.

For this decade I was using the four-year period starting with 2000 2021 which is what the table that's provided by the national weather service starts with. Seems they go from 0 for each decade instead of 9. We could start from 2018 2019 which would yield an average of 15.2667. time will tell however it is still early in the grand scheme of things.

Okay couldn't help myself I had to compare 1950 through 1969 against 2000 through 2019. I think we can all agree that 1950 through 1969 was a colder period than 2000 through 2019. Even though 1950 through 1969 was much colder 2000 through 2019 averaged more snowfall. The average snowfall for 50 through 69 was 26.62. the average snowfall for 2000 through 2019 was 32.35. again another example of how warmer and more volatility is compensating for warming temperatures. I get that at some point if we continue to warm we will reach a tipping point and drop, I just don't think we are there yet or at least I don't have enough evidence.

I just did a deep dive into the last five decades for Central Park snowfall against the last 4 years to see how our average will not drop but move toward normal. My theory is that although we will lose snow events we will compensate with more fuel from coastal storms and any storm that's cold enough to snow. One comparison would be the frigid 1970s where our average snowfall for the 10-year period was a mere 21.25 inches. Compare that to the much warmer 1990s where the snowfall average was 24.73. The warmer decade ended with more snow even though the majority fell in three seasons. The least amount fell in the '80s at 19.74 inches. The average snowfall for the 30-year period of 1970 through 1999 was a mere 21.90667 inches. So far for this decade our average is 16.575 and we have five more years to go after this year. This year is looking like a dud however in this new environment all it takes is for one coastal to drop 18 inches and it changes the landscape of the entire winter. It wouldn't take much to raise our snowfall average for this decade from 16.575 to 21.90667 of the 30-year period from 1970 through 1999. I am throwing out 2000 through 2019 as each decades average was 31.47 and 33.23. this time frame aligns better with 1950 through 1969 where there are multiple KU events just like the last two decades and that is a better comparison for those two snowfall average periods. If we want to include the last two decades from 1970 through last year the average snowfall was 25.37963. I think that it is very plausible that over a 10-year period we will average normal snowfall in the same way the 1990s which had three average to above average snowfall seasons outperformed the much colder '70s and much more average 80s. I will continue to keep track

It's not that they do not see what is going on it is more a discussion as to whether or not it will continue or abate.

Very true. That being said if the blocking was a little weaker we could have seen a good 6 to 12 from this event.

Also a warmer pattern does not mean no snow. We may end up with more snow in the warmer pattern than we get now.

Weeklies week 3. This shows our transition window well.

The mjo progression is interesting, looks like it gets stuck in phase 8 and 1 which is different than the last couple days which progressed it through 1 and 2.

Rooting for DC to have an above average snowfall winter which is looking pretty good at this point. We will get our winter, maybe next year, maybe a couple years from now, but it'll happen and we will be much more appreciative of it over the 2000 to 2018. When we expected it. Still tracking our average snowfall over this bad period starting in 2019 against the 30-year period of 1970 through 1999 so even if this winter is a dud overall I am hopeful that we get a couple of snow events.

They we'll get down to -4 after the Storm overnight.

Jim Cantori is live in Kansas City. He said they may get thunder snow with the intensity and the weather channel is predicting 14 inches for Kansas City they do caveat that's any mixed could lower.

Thanks Don, I think the most interesting aspects of this event to watch are if Richmond stops their streak and if Kansas City gets their largest snowfall since 1962, the last time they had a foot of snow.

Talking about performance with regards to percentage of average. NYC has had less than 10 inch of snow 2 years in a row and only one above average snowfall season if we were to include this season. This would give DC two. So they could be outperforming us with regards to percentage of average over the course of the time.

It feels like the Middle Atlantic has been beating us with regards to percentage of average over the last 7 years including this year.

I hope the following happens as it would likely ensure DC has an above average snowfall winter.

What will be impressive is Kansas City may have its largest snowfall since 1962 and Richmond may have up to a foot according to the euro.

That's a lot of Lows. Bluewave this is not the wave spacing we need.

On a side note on the weather channel they mentioned that if Kansas City gets a foot it would be the first time since the 1960s wow.

There is nothing wrong with looking at the h5 pattern at 300 hours. In fact multiple people stated, including myself, that the axis of the trough was right over us and too far East. The h5 pattern at 300 was absolutely correct unfortunately. Forky even stated that the period could easily be cold and dry.