EastonSN+

Took a look at the LR guidance and it still looks good as we head into mid/late month. Only December 6, a long way before the solstice. I will say if the LR guidance overnight is correct (and we all know that's a big IF), then 2012/2013 looks like a better analog (east half of sub forum benefits more). Does anyone have the 12/13 snowfall totals for central park? SW CT ended up approx. 129% of average annual snowfall.

Thanks Don! I tend to think it's 75% natural cyclical warming, 25% human induced. What is odd is it seems that April has been colder than average the last 10 years. May be a statistical anomaly.

It's over, I was amped up and holding steady until I saw the 18z GFS. Next year may hold promise.

AO approaching -4

Check over Alaska and Greenland. That's a massive ror change.

12z

6z

I mean the run over run change is massive. NAO block sinks SE, but the EPO completely flips from positive to negative

Now THIS is a change in the GEFS. The Atlantic goes to crap in the LR but the PAC improves. GEPS remains unchanged.

Window 1

Toss the GFS far, 18z yesterday showed two snowstorms. Go with a CMC EURO blend until the GFS calms down.

Yeah, I also appreciate that this forum covers a vast region and what coastal NJ needs is far different than the 84 inland corridor.

Correct in that before mid month we need colder air. If this pattern holds to late month we MAY score.

CORRECT. It's actually great that this is getting delayed. Get this pattern in late December and January. Also, we were only 8 inches below seasonal average last year and that was just 3 weeks. This December looks MUCH better that RNA was a beast.

We scored 4 inches in 2012 where the PAC was worse. What's wrong with the CURRENT pattern? This pattern we are in right now will work in late December and January. Let the models punt all day will will cash in.

I don't see a full punt but more of a correction in the medium term. This current pattern will work late month where Forky/Brooklynwx99/NE thread METS/MA forum are saying. Hey - if Forky/Brooklynwx99 reply here and say it looks hopeless I will follow their opinion 100%, but until that happens I see nothing that goes against the mid to late month forecast from them.

In coastal CT we had 4 inches from that storm. Not sure how far off that was from giving NYC the same but can't imagine it was that far off. So thinking if this pattern is slightly better NYC sees 4 in the same event. What's bothering me is I feel that the board is split to extremes. Either blocking is great so we are gonna get slammed or we have an RNA so all hope is lost and we are looking at 01/02. I think the safe thought process for is something in between until the ensembles lock into something. You are far better educated than me in this field so your opinion holds far more weight, however I do not think the PAC is nearly as bad as what 2012 was (I may be off here of course) - would pay to see what the EPS and GEFS showed in early December.

Correct. We may not get an epic stretch, but I do not see a shut out pattern in any of the ensembles OR THE OPS.

The PAC is better than it was in 2012 and we got snow.

Keep in mind we scored in 2012 with a PAC worse than what is forecasted.

GEFS pattern looks fine once we get to late month.

City east including LI did ok here in December 2012, not a terrible outcome given the crappy PAC.

Yeah that will only work late December and Jan. However I believe that late December and January were always the focus. Don't forget we had a snowstorm in our neck of the woods in December 2012.

GEPS

2nd window.