EastonSN+

Yeah. Here in my town only 01/02, 06/07, 07/08 and 11/12 were below average snowfall winters from 2000 through 2018, however each were way below average. Of course some pretty epic years with 17/18 being my favorite. The 90s were all or nothing as well though. 93/94 and of course the historic 95/96. 92/93 was the only average snowfall winter. The remaining 7 were well below average snowfall winters. At least IMBY. I think Eastern LI may have had better luck especially in the 80s.

Yes, and that was the 90s in a nutshell so not alarming. Also, one of the posters showed that there were 70 degree days in December in the 80s (82). I know some think the 80s were frigid however I do remember roasting a lot of times too. 80s were more volatile with temp swings than (frigid) like the years of the revolutionary war with Washington crossing the ice jammed Delaware lol. Snowfall was abismal in the 80s. 2000 through 2018 was 55 through 69 and we had a 30 year snow drought in between. I EXPECT the last 5 years of results to be around for a while before we get another great period. Hopefully I am still around for it. Good news, we had some good years sprinkled in (77/78, 93/94 and 95/96).

This is a good read too on the western warm pool https://skybrary.aero/articles/western-pacific-warm-pool

And this is TYPICAL for the 80s and 90s. A couple of good periods in a winter. 2000 through 2018 (like 55 through 69) are rare and are actually what put our average snowfall totals where they are. 70s, 80s and 90s to me ARE the norm. The last 5 years, 1 above average snowfall winter, feels like normal to me lol. Poster may have to wait a couple decades to get 2000/2018 again.

Montreal and eastern Canada were hit pretty hard last night. Is this a good source region or do we prefer Alaska and wester Canada epo/PNA reasons?

What I like seeing on the ensembles are: A. The "cold pool" moves to Alaska (not a great position however a better source position instead of the other side of the hemisphere), and B. If you play the ensembles, the ridge starts to move to the PNA position. Timing aligns with phase 8 and more importantly, an El nino background. I feel like I am reliving the 80s and 90s so something will probably go wrong, but nothing at all alarming on the ensembles. Why wouldn't one EXPECT warmth in the warm phases of the MJO? Aren't el Nino Decembers warm anyway? I think posters today would think the world was ending if they relived the 80s and 90s.

For my area in SW CT, our typical first snowfall over the past 40 years has been the 3rd week of December, so not sure why there is so much dismay. I want the warm phases of the MJO to happen now.

I may be mistaken, however haven't there been a few good la Nina years where the PDO is negative? I thought El ninos typically have a trough off the west coast helping to pump the PNA.

The AO will remain negative at this time as well.

Timing could not be better for phase 8. Will probably be delaying a couple days, however looks good. I could be mistaken, however if those outliers in 6 and 7 are correct it can "punch" the PV.

I am a little confused lol. Is the MJO making it to 8 or not.

If that's the case the EURO has it weaker in phase 4 than GEFS and quicker to 8.

Maybe, but if we have snowfall in the back half of the month the monthly temps would not matter

I am surprised to see some blue on the map. Too bad it's the west and Mexico.

Remember the EURO MJO always plays catch up to the GEFS.

MJO plot finally getting us to 8

We could be frigid too by the end of the month. MJO will be in 8 by then and the AO looks to remain negative.

What I am hoping for is a 2000/2001 type year. The first event was December 30 and we ended up above average for snowfall.

I just do not get how some feel that this somehow proves NAOs are now useless/no longer help us. An NAO itself is not enough like 97/98. I feel as though some posters are just looking at 2000 onwards and thinking something has drastically changed, when all one has to do is look at the 90s to see what is happening now is not unexpected. 2000 through 2018 was similar to 55 through 69. These periods are relatively rare and not the norm. What has happened 2019 onwards just reminds me of my childhood winters lol.

I don't see any relevant melts in that sub forum from the knowledgeable posters. Just the usual suspects like this forum and the MA forum who always melt every year that is not an all out snow blitz. Just pay attention to Ray, ORH WXman etc and you will be good. Why would anyone with knowledge melt now lol. It's 12/3 in an El nino year. We waited till mid Jan in 14/15 and had an all time year. If the METS start melting different story.

Right! I think a lot of posters mistakenly associate a neg NAO with cold. All the NAO does is block and keep the SE ridge at bay. So, while posters are saying lol neg NAO is useless, it ALWAYS WAS with a bad PAC. As 1997/1998 will show, strong blocking with a bad PAC = mild and rain. Always was and always will. What is happening now is expected with blocking and a bad PAC (especially this early in the season). PAC drives the cold. NAO is the storm traffic cop slowing down and "blocking" storms. We could lose blocking and get a favorable PAC and rack up the snow like 13/14. Or we can keep blocking and rain like 97/98.

I honestly thought the 91 through 2020 AO < 0 mean temps would be higher by now.

It's great to see cold still in the Northern hemisphere. Shows that with the right setup we can get this.

Would rather it hits 70 to be honest. Enjoy it before the colder air and potentially snow come late month.

I agree with them, they have some really good experts there. Now, it was not bad luck as in timing as much as it was the trough in the West was too deep and overpowered the block. It's that simple. It was not the beginning of the end of blocking as we know it.