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EastonSN+

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Everything posted by EastonSN+

  1. EastonSN+
    I know it's the CFS however look at that Aleutian ridge! Go through each week and that Ridge is completely static. No way we can get a favorable pattern with that. Aleutian ridge goes up, PNA goes down, SE ridge goes up like waves in a pool. This static Aleutian ridge HAS to be la Nina driven.
  2. EastonSN+
    Great post by CAPE. So, it seems the catalyst for the SE ridge/RNA is really the Aleutian ridge, not the Atlantic (Aleutian ridge rises creating the RNA and therefore the SE ridge). Now my question is, is the Aleutian ridge due to the La Nina (cold anomaly south of the ridge)? If so, this explains the persistence of the SE ridge and amazing wester have of USA winter. Have THAT powerful of an RNA would also explain the NAO/SE ridge linkage. I tend to believe the above since we are downstream of the PAC, and as we all know the PAC drives the bus. If the RNA was a little weaker, the results would likely be better for March. Strong La Ninas are terrible (except I do enjoy the warmth).
  3. EastonSN+
    FWIW, the MJO on both the ECMWF and GEFS now loop 7 and 8. Not sure what, if any effects will be realized. This year the RNA was just too powerful and persistent, so not sure how that changes other than shortening wavelengths. 97/98 with it's hail Mary late March fluke is the only thing standing in the way of the record. I think if you play out 97/98 10 times, 8 times the March event does not happen and CPK stays at 0.5. History repeating itself.
  4. EastonSN+
    I would say not in our lifetimes if ever. Very unique track and progression. Storms like 1888, 1899, 1948, 1978 and 2010 have only occurred once. I would have added 2013, however 1922 had a very similar setup and track (both had a storm NW merge with a strengthening offshore low, even the snowfall distro was close just a bit displaced south from 2013).
  5. EastonSN+
    I am talking about the screen snip he provided, not what may or may not change that look. In that look, the east based NAO keeps the 50/50 long enough to start as snow. Whether or not something moves or changes on the next run is not what I am referring to.
  6. EastonSN+
    The east based NAO would keep in the 50/50 long enough for the overrunning to occur in that screen snip. East Based NAO = overrunning West based NAO = coastal/all snow
  7. EastonSN+
    If the depiction occured as shown, the 50/50 would allow for an overrunning event to occur. A west based NAO would allow for a coastal.
  8. EastonSN+
    Agreed, I think we will be waiting a few years before our next 13/14, 02/03, 95/96 etc
  9. EastonSN+
    00/01 feels like 20/21 in that both were above average snowfall in a sea of bad years.
  10. EastonSN+
    16 IMBY for PD2 11.5 for 2016
  11. EastonSN+
    Mine was 1996 27 inches 2013 22 inches 2006 20.5 2011 18
  12. EastonSN+
    The record will all come down to the last few days of the month. If the cold push is a couple days earlier we lose the record. If it's a couple days later we get it. It all comes down to timing.
  13. EastonSN+
    I think your further north. I believe we are reverting back to the pre 2000 pattern setup, which was more west coast trough east coast ridging. Now, that can work quite favorably for your area as you can get more coastal huggers, boundary setups. Coastal areas will be the opposite with more rain.
  14. EastonSN+
    Yeah the further SE the better last year. I was over 8 inches below normal up here.
  15. EastonSN+
    Also, this is why 2019 to now has not shaken me. I lived through so many 5 plus year snowless periods that 2000 through 2018 is an outlier to me while the past 5 years, 2 ratters, 2 below average and one above average snowfall winter feels normal to me.
  16. EastonSN+
    Don't sleep on 2000/2001, solidly above average snowfall year with a December blizzard.
  17. EastonSN+
    Yeah I grew up in the 80s and 90s and it was horrific.
  18. EastonSN+
    Seems like the super Nino flipped the switch. Do you think the 97/98 super Nino did the same in ushering in the snowy 2000/2010s? Or perhaps another event?
  19. EastonSN+
    If we did not have so much rain in 97 98, I feel that it would have also been at the top. Although hard to get this level of sunshine in a strong Nino.
  20. EastonSN+
    I think this is the year to do it. We have a perfect setup. Triple dip la Nina creating a deep/static trough out west and the late/potentially not till spring change to Blocking in the arctic. My gut says the cold push gets delayed a few days and the record is ours. Really shows how everything has to lineup right to break records. If that cold push happened a few days earlier we lose the record. Timing is everything as they say.
  21. EastonSN+
    I agree. However, and this is a question, wouldn't the shorter wavelengths lessen the impact of the RNA as we head to late February and March?
  22. EastonSN+
    Gonna be a real close call for temps to beat out 02 and 32 with the cooler temps expected next week. I hope we can break the record but may be a nail biter at the end.
  23. EastonSN+
    Except the west. Incredible winter out there with snow in Vegas and Tuscan. Ridge here trough there. Records warmth here opposite there. 1990s style!
  24. EastonSN+
    Ha 100%. I think the young ones are getting exposure to what we experienced in the early 90s! Only way this would be nicer is if it was the weekend.
  25. EastonSN+
    We get the good weather during our usual nasty weather month, while the usually warm SW gets our snow!
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