It's like Lucy holding the football I'm just waiting for the moment when it gets pulled away. I guess when you are snake bit so much that until it's falling we have doubts.
Bernie think 4-8 for us unless the further west track verifies. The NAM is still out of its range but he said this kind of storm the NAM will do well on.
So EPS the west leaning members increased and the east members got further west. I'd say that's a solid trend let's just hope this doesn't wind up coming right up our neighborhood.
Yeah i saw people resharing various Facebook posts about a big storm coming. It's funny that the average person doesn't understand how difficult it is to pinpoint a storm 5 days out
If the ensembles were super amped and showed tons of hits I'd be concerned that this was gonna be a Youngstown special. I think we are in a great spot for possible warning level snow. We need everything to line up perfectly for 12+ and we know this.
What's really interesting is the GEFS continues to be a lot less amped than the GFS. However the GFS has support from the ICON and GGEM. So this is pretty wild the differences here.
Great chart. Shows how much we do not know. All I know is we need an earlier phase and closed off low. There could be wild swings depending on the speed of the vorts, the high, and how close they are to one another.