I can recall multiple storms over the years show huge totals with 48 hrs out because it was the most NW and the storm ends up sliding underneath. I'm hoping the NAM is just doing NAM things.
I mean is it overamped and forcing the upper low further west than it really will end up being??? or is the NAM sniffing something out that other models don't see? Two wildly different scenarios between the NAM and RGEM.
It literally is a great track and then the low retrogrades to State College. This storm honestly might have some big surprises in store for people, good or bad.
Ukie east, GFS west, NAM west, RGEM/CMC jackpot. I'd say we are In a good spot for atleast 8-12. Fast moving so the 12+ will be tough. I'm just excited for some insane rates if they verify
From a PA met on USAwx forum
I'm assuming this is overdone, but the potential for warming aloft is definitely there.
Data assimilation will be key since a couple degrees difference will be extremely important here for any kind of mid level warm layer.
Yeah still a decent thump but man would that be a sloppy storm. The mid levels warm a lot and screw over basically all of PA. Is this the NAM being the NAM or is it on to something...
Yeah how often have we seen them adjust the totals as the storm approached. Yeah the Euro is concerning but we have seen enough now casting busts to know that it may not be the final outcome.