qg_omega

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Hopefully we can get a decent period somewhere before mid March...imagine if this ends up being our only week of true winter?   LOL

thats my forecast so not crazy to think that 

On 1/17/2024 at 10:48 PM, The 4 Seasons said:

First call, will issue an update if needed.

Beer?

On 1/17/2024 at 10:08 PM, qg_omega said:

Toss the 12k, 3k being much less is a big red flag.  She gone

Shocker

5 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i do like seeing these HP continuously getting ejected into S Canada. two 1040-50mb HPs is nothing to sneeze at. can give us a chance at a WAA event even with a crap longwave pattern. the HP make sense given the ridge over AK

What a massive Bermuda high for late January

26 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Does Jay Peak really have 187” on the season? Seems ridiculous? PF?

I believe they had over 100 before the big rainstorms 

Toss the 12k, 3k being much less is a big red flag.  She gone

21 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

3k gone wild as well 

One week of winter ends Sunday for the year, no changes

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like Tuesday night is the next crack at a couple of inches, but we're onto February for anything overly impactful.

No changes

23 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

This was well modeled it will fill in between 7-8am

She’s done, pretty epic bust for most

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

I did get the general pattern correct, I just wasn't extreme enough, which I think is a more palatable error in a seasonal effort. 

You are a good forecaster, just need to account more for AGW.  Take the forecast and add 3 degrees to what the analogues suggest.

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Here is my December analog composite.

Zero below normal across CONUS, warmest December ever across large sections of the country, notice analogue chat goes to +5 while December map goes to +10 and large section of country at +10 and off the chart warmth.  

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's been warmer than I thought so far, yes.

You had 1 to 3 AN for December, average was +6?  Some spots +8, many spots warmest December ever? Jan running +6 to +8 so far, sure some cold this week but not huge below normal and we are back above normal to much above normal last 10 days of month.  No changes

@40/70 Benchmark you have been touting after 1/20 for over a month.  1/25 and 1/28.  Honestly can’t remember a winter with more rain after rain up to Montreal in a very long time.  Last winter was light years better than this one in the mountains and it’s not even close

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

some of the GEFS members are getting interesting for the end of the week

Beer?

12 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

not true in maine

Real lakes, not ponds 

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Water has been AN locally last year and this year. Boston harbor is 44 last I checked. That’s mild. That’s not helping in marginal setups which have been constant for almost 2 years now. It doesn’t have to be balls cold, but there has been virtually no cold in the northeast preceding events and storm tracks have been huggers.

It’s been a historic warm winter, almost no lake ice anywhere in the northeast and Great Lakes, don’t understand the spin by the same people

8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Fixed it for you

Almost everyone got 4+ most 12+ region wide MECS, localized HECS

38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wonder how it will look after this ...   For the record ...I suspect this 18z run is kind of bonkers overall - no trolling intended. 

I think we are headed for a reload interlude of yet unknown amplitude - but either way, I'm not sure we're sending 582 dm heights to the Del Marva to get that done.  We'll see... But just J. H. Christ here.  This also hearkens to what I've been saying ( for years really - ) that when the cold air shuts off we seem to almost spring loaded bounce into this outre warm plush across the mid latitudes - or tend to do so. It's been so reproducible over the last 10 years, regardless of whatever discrete or voodoo combination of indexes were doing corrections to unicorns, that I begin to think massive oscillatory behavior is the new norm.

Few have called this, few

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

CT got the goose egg on this . Did not see that happening 

Easy 1 to 4 inches?

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

After this week is winter over? 

Looks like it, I’m not on the February is going to be great because El Nino’s are backload.  Even this week’s cold has trended warmer.  

7 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

61 in the winter land known as Methuen..

F- grade for the winter

 

 

You had a HECS in Methuen, please stop.  Most areas  near the coast are sitting at under one inch on the year or zero 

Incredible warmth has been the story since 12/1 this winter, along with incredible amounts of rain.  Classic strong El Niño winter and more warmth just a few days away.

On 1/11/2024 at 12:16 PM, qg_omega said:

When is the pattern change for colder?  Jan 20 to 24?  Then winter is over?

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have 19.5" and I average over 60", which I haven't sniffed in 6 years, first of all...second, I need it to snow near the coast, too.

A HECS is a HECS, was a great thread the needle job in an otherwise strong Nino cutter city winter