qg_omega

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What you think about January 

you had dec +4-6 I think

Yes verified on December

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What you think about January 

Posted in NYC thread

I dont see anything to get excited about in the long range, transient cold to start the year but pattern favors clippers or cutters unfortunately 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

This December is about as bad as can be even up there. Complete shut 'em down.

Historically bad December in terms of winter for most of the country and Canada, rivals the most epic fail starts off all time

I dont see anything to get excited about in the long range, transient cold to start the year but pattern favors clippers or cutters unfortunately 

3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is a gorgeous look

That’s a cutter pattern 

17 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

a trough undercutting a -EPO is not the same pattern as a traditional -PNA. they're two different patterns. early Jan looks more like active split flow with AN heights in northern Canada... that isn't really a -PNA

February 2023 is more of a typical -PNA

Ok

https://x.com/paulroundy1/status/1737798350517252271?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg

44 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yes, exactly. I like where we are headed. seems to be legit

Negative PNA is favored for January

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Another top ten warmest month across the region as we have had something like 20 to 30 top ten warmest months to only one coldest month since the 15-16 super El Niño.

Insane warmth this month, November was a more wintry month yet again

On 11/23/2023 at 2:53 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

hi all. figured it’s time to start a December thread given that ensembles are keying in on anomalous west-based -NAO blocking setting up during the first week of the month. we would like to see this signal strengthen over the coming week, but this is a highly conducive pattern.

also notice how much better the NPAC and PNA region is compared to last year! god bless +ENSO. hopefully we can start off hot, which would likely set us up for a great winter historically looking at previous +ENSO winters that had blocky Decembers. happy Thanksgiving!

Last years December was miles better than this month, had record cold vs record warmth across the country

Incredible warm start to winter for the country and the continent, historic warmth fueled by the super Nino.  Classic well coupled strong Nino

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Beautiful gfs run

Agreed

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

how the fuck is January 1-4 mid-month? what is going on in here. do we need to redefine dates?

@qg_omegaone of those is literally for Dec 28-Jan 2. explain to me how that isn’t around the end of December

That’s the point, ensembles have showed the better pattern 10 to 15 days away and are wrong.  Canada is a blow torch and I don’t see any changes until Canada cools down significantly.  The conus warmth this month and into YEAR END is historic.  We aren’t just going to “flip” colder without massive changes.  I see nothing for the next three weeks, maybe I’ll be wrong, lets hope.  The reasons I outlined two weeks ago have not changed.

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

pattern still looks good towards the end of the month. don’t really see any cause for angst from any of this

Toward the end of the month is mid January?  Nothing looks good for the next three weeks

23 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

luckily I think the "winning again" looks like it'll occur around the end of the month. ENS are keying in on a nice pattern as the jet retracts

Here just yesterday and many many more as we go back in time

On 12/17/2023 at 6:08 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

anecdotal. every single meteorology class in the country that teaches medium and long range forecasting stresses the importance of ensembles

if you're arguing that OP runs are more skillful than ensembles at range, every meteorologist here would disagree. it's just wrong

Can you post the good ensembles?  OP remains extremely consistent 

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

so now we're taking LR OP runs over their respective ensemble means? why?

Facepalm, did we not learn a thing from last winter?  We literally been over this topic numerous times, I can pull the thread from last year when ensembles always looked good 10 days away and OPs looked awful. 

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Too bad, the operational model looks like the worst stench of dung imaginable

Saw that last year, OPs won the day.  

Another terrible Xmas week for the resorts, multiple rain storms between now and new years with little cold in between

4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

No changes.

Close the shades indefinitely

39 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

also, the timeframe before Christmas was never supposed to look good. not sure where that expectation even came from. maybe it did a couple of weeks ago but that's old news at this point. it's been Christmas into NYE for the transition into a more favorable pattern and that is on track

Nothing looks favorable this month, we’ll see about January but need massive changes between now and then

3 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

I am going to wait until dinner time to make the call but I am leaning towards temporarily taking the Christmas decorations down from my roof,,,,I mean even if the winds verified at half as strong as depicted on those maps and they could be 35mph with higher gusts N n W of NYC and I would rather be safe than sorry. I will see what the models are showing later today to make my final call but im leaning towards caution

Keep us updated

6 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

44kt on NAM FOUS at LGA at 48hrs, strong winds.

Need these maps to show 100mph to get strong winds in reality

Just now, jbenedet said:

Kind of an irony where the simplest forecast, again, would have been the best.

All the rest is BS.

We’re tracking somewhere between 2006-2007 and 2015-2016 snowfall wise in the CONUS. 

The former was a moderate El Niño, the latter a super El Niño. We’re tracking between those El Niño conditions today; strong El Niño. Shocker! Nope not at all if you can tune out all the noise.

Take those years, average the outcome, run it from this point. That’s your best guess for high end snow/cold outcome from here. Hedge less than that baseline with +1C surface temps vs 06/07; 15/16 average.

Agreed.  But but El Niño is not coupled, it’s not strong, it’s not Super.  strong El Niño winters are terrible, end forecast

850 winds over 100knts on the NAM

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

no changes!

Agreed, rains to Montreal