
qg_omega
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Posts posted by qg_omega
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How’s 12z NAM
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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:
that looks like hurricane force wind gusts for all of long island.....might be like March 2010!
Wasn’t March 2010 a coastal where the inversion broke?
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Nice blue skies air seems very clean
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No hail but first thunderstorm of spring
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Trending toward GFS
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1 hour ago, J.Spin said:
Here’s the north to south listing of available totals from the Vermont ski areas for Winter Storm Odell thus far. Some resorts may have done midday updates, so those will have some of this morning’s snow included already. There’s still moisture from the Great Lakes affecting the area, so the numbers may still change a bit in the next day or so.
Jay Peak: 20”
Smuggler’s Notch: 20”
Stowe: 14”
Bolton Valley: 20”
Mad River Glen: 14”
Sugarbush: 10”
Middlebury: 6”
Pico: 6”
Killington: 6”
Okemo: 2”
Bromley: 6”
Magic Mountain: 4”
Stratton: 6”
Mount Snow: 3”
24 inches at Whiteface
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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:
For me personally, it looks strange. The EPO is sort of cut off at AK with some lower heights hanging around there, on the EPS. However, you have NW flow into the US dumping colder air. I don’t have a good feel for this, but there isn’t really anything that sticks out as exciting for me anyways. It doesn’t mean something can’t happen....but nothing stands out.
It’s more false flags, nothing more than that
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1 hour ago, psv88 said:
You at Woodloch?
Yes sir
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5 hours ago, wdrag said:
Good Sunday morning, especially ne PA, nw NJ participants where light snow has started including here in Wantage as first flurries began ~230A. A minor event to be melted away by 11AM with snow moving out to the northeast of PA/NJ by 6 or 7am. The 00z/9 RGEM and ECMWF are best for this potential 1/2-1" event parts of ne PA and probably less than 1/2 inch event for Sussex County NJ...maybe more like 1 or 2 tenths. 00z 3KM NAM was much better than its 00z/9 12K NAM.
Have appended (courtesy of Pivotal Weather) what happened this Saturday afternoon in terms of measurable which can translate to a 10/1 snow ratio of even greater ratio for the high terrain, mainly SE NYS and to the N and NE of Scranton PA.
Looks to me that NE PA/ and NJ Sussex County high terrain (Vernon-Wantage) will pick up 1-3" between 11PM Sunday and 6AM Monday per latest ensembles and multiple models. That one has FGEN and much better dendrite growth and would not surprise to see a brief period of 1/2S up here in these parts by 4AM Monday. From what I can tell... EC/RGEM/NAM op runs all have trended slightly colder on the 00z cycle as compared to 12 hours earlier. Again, the decent but small accums should be reserved for higher terrain. 245A/9
Picked up a surprise 1 to 2 inches yday afternoon/evening here in Hawley PA and it’s snowing again
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32 minutes ago, bluewave said:
This was a great tweet. I have been saying this for a while about old analogs not matching the new climate. The expansion of the WPAC warm pool has been favoring these warmer MJO phases for us.
They really changed their tune after their horrible December forecast. Good for them.
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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:
Everyone is annoyed so I don’t blame them. At this point you just sort of roll with things and hope we are on the good side. There is absolutely frigid air in Canada during the 11-15 day.
There was frigid air also in Canada first half of January
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Just now, Bostonseminole said:
why would you want a miss?
If he doesn’t snow, he wants no one to snow
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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:
That not a cold dry look with a mean trough over Chicago and ridge off west coast. Even sine hints of blocking
Unfortunately it’s not a very cold look either despite the 500mb look. Just slightly below normal with above normal in Canada and the northern tier. Positive EPO has voided Canada of arctic air
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Its flying
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4 inches at gore mountain last night
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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:
And the future cannot be predicted as evidenced by this winter .. mets and models. No one has a clue what will happen in February
MJO goes back into 6, we punt feb
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40 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:
The EPS have significantly improved overnight IMHO in the 11-15. They have been showing some signs but last night’s run took it up a notch with the ridging out in the PAC domain.
Lets see if we can build on this and track it closer unlike the last one which vaporized about 9 days out.
Day 11 to 15 verification lately is worse than a coin flip
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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:
All guidance was absolutely awful....but yeah, the Euro was probably the worst since it was the furthest south.
Long range NAM was actually decent
April 2020
in New York City Metro
Posted
Usually best winds in this situation is after the morning rains but before the low topped line