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qg_omega

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Posts posted by qg_omega

  1. Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

    It was a Dec 1992 repeat more or less.  The gradient was just that strong.  I’m not sure we effectively mixed down max winds from aloft in that scenario given time of year and direction of wind.  This event like that one the strongest winds should be near the coast but the high gusts will probably be more sporadic  depending how effectively they mix down.  This event is more similar to an 11/11/95 or 10/14/03.  Both of those setups were different in regards to proximity of the surface lows/upper trof but they both had crazy 850 winds S winds with areas gusting 50-70.  The 2003 event was somewhat short duration though.  This will be a good 6-12 hours 

    Usually best winds in this situation is after the morning rains but before the low topped line

  2. 40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

    When the Euro indicates sustained winds at the coast near 50 mph, it’s not a stretch to see peak gusts of 70 mph or greater. The LLJ maxes out near +6 SD. Synoptic wind gusts would be 60-70 mph and any convective enhancement 70+.

    8CCA98DF-9734-450C-8822-A82373905E41.thumb.png.a3b6be0ea40d59d90576d84d39871580.png
     

     

    619444B2-1D76-43BF-862A-913C3742289F.thumb.png.74b4382106df02be9075bb3fe4b531c8.png

    Wow near 6 SD into Long Island

  3. 19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

    Very Impressive +5SD block near Greenland. Typical spring -NAO temperature pattern. Cool inshore flow here with 80’s over the Mid-Atlantic.

    6B5A39DE-F0E1-4C85-829D-BEF80626E07E.thumb.jpeg.6c8691fa5aa86c1288894e923b8fa162.jpeg
    C0E76A34-366F-4612-9F33-E19D0193A6EE.thumb.png.83a3c378a64dafb73b3b0fa1843bc9a8.png

     

     

    90s in NC, record warmth

  4. 1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

    Here’s the north to south listing of available totals from the Vermont ski areas for Winter Storm Odell thus far.  Some resorts may have done midday updates, so those will have some of this morning’s snow included already.  There’s still moisture from the Great Lakes affecting the area, so the numbers may still change a bit in the next day or so.

     

    Jay Peak: 20”

    Smuggler’s Notch: 20”

    Stowe: 14”

    Bolton Valley: 20”

    Mad River Glen: 14”

    Sugarbush: 10”

    Middlebury: 6”

    Pico: 6”

    Killington: 6”

    Okemo: 2”

    Bromley: 6”

    Magic Mountain: 4”

    Stratton: 6”

    Mount Snow: 3”

    24 inches at Whiteface

  5. 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

    For me personally, it looks strange. The EPO is sort of cut off at AK with some lower heights hanging around there, on the EPS. However, you have NW flow into the US dumping colder air. I don’t have a good feel for this, but there isn’t really anything that sticks out as exciting for me anyways.   It doesn’t mean something can’t happen....but nothing stands out.

    It’s more false flags, nothing more than that

  6. 5 hours ago, wdrag said:

    Good Sunday morning, especially ne PA, nw NJ participants where light snow has started including here in Wantage as first flurries began ~230A. A minor event to be melted away by 11AM with snow moving out to the northeast of PA/NJ by 6 or 7am. The 00z/9 RGEM and ECMWF are best for this potential 1/2-1" event parts of ne PA and probably less than 1/2 inch event for Sussex County NJ...maybe more like 1 or 2 tenths. 00z 3KM NAM was much better than its 00z/9 12K NAM.  

    Have appended (courtesy of Pivotal Weather) what happened this Saturday afternoon in terms of measurable which can translate to a 10/1 snow ratio of even greater ratio for the high terrain, mainly SE NYS and to the N and NE of Scranton PA.  

    Looks to me that NE PA/ and NJ Sussex County high terrain (Vernon-Wantage) will pick up 1-3" between 11PM Sunday and 6AM Monday per latest ensembles and multiple models. That one has FGEN and much better dendrite growth and would not surprise to see a brief period of 1/2S up here in these parts by 4AM Monday. From what I can tell... EC/RGEM/NAM op runs all have trended slightly colder on the 00z cycle as compared to 12 hours earlier.  Again, the decent but small accums should be reserved for higher terrain.  245A/9

    Screen Shot 2020-02-08 at 11.52.43 PM.png

    Picked up a surprise 1 to 2 inches yday afternoon/evening here in Hawley PA and it’s snowing again

    • Thanks 1
  7. 32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

    This was a great tweet. I have been  saying this for a while about old analogs not matching the new climate. The expansion of the WPAC warm pool has been favoring these warmer MJO phases for us. 

     

    They really changed their tune after their horrible December forecast.  Good for them.

    • Like 2
  8. 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

    Everyone is annoyed so I don’t blame them. At this point you just sort of roll with things and hope we are on the good side. There is absolutely frigid air in Canada during the 11-15 day. 

    There was frigid air also in Canada first half of January

  9. 1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

    That not a cold dry look with a mean trough over Chicago and ridge off west coast. Even sine hints of blocking 

    Unfortunately it’s not a very cold look either despite the 500mb look.  Just slightly below normal with above normal in Canada and the northern tier.  Positive EPO has voided Canada of arctic air

  10. 40 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

    The EPS have significantly improved overnight IMHO in the 11-15. They have been showing some signs but last night’s run took it up a notch with the ridging out in the PAC domain. 

    Lets see if we can build on this and track it closer unlike the last one which vaporized about 9 days out. 

    Day 11 to 15 verification lately is worse than a coin flip

    • Weenie 1
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