qg_omega

Euro delivers another HECS next weekend for the mid Atlantic and south east.

This storm tomorrow has quickly transformed into a HECS for VA / DC.  That's MJO phase 8 delivering the goods.  Glad DC and RIC finally getting it good, it's finally DTs winter

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Winter is here for good. No more Rainers 

Mid Atlantic winter of YORE 

On 12/28/2018 at 11:56 AM, qg_omega said:

I disagree but maybe that is why I do not forecast extremely long range.  To me its like a trader in a bad position and trying to justify why he is correct as he loses more and more money.  Maybe it really is a case of delayed but not denied, but its clear this winter is not progressing as many thought.  Call it the SSW, MJO, Positive SOI in an El Nino....the pattern screams pac jet and fast flow for the foreseeable future.    

All these points remain just important today as backn in December.  Pacific remains for at least the next ten days

Just now, powderfreak said:

Oh I'd be burning the neighborhood down right now.  I get it fully.  I lost my sh*t in January 2004 when it was cutter then suppression for long enough that I think Tamarack and I had more rainfall inches than snowfall in January while Philly enjoyed their 6th winter storm warning of the season lol.  Leon can go to hell.

I just didn't think mentioning cold temperatures tonight would be the trigger.

Triggered the melts but heck of an upslope snow event for NNE!

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Great post by Bluewave.

The MJO is REALLY starting to anger me!

MJO back into phase 5 was expected by most.  Amazing how fast it traveled from 6 to 8

30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GEFS probably will be wrong. You can get a cutter easily with that energy out west and lack of blocking. 

I guess we never learn, GEFS needs to be retired.  Just look at what it showed for the past 10 days and what is our reality

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro still looks offshore and so does eps. Congrats MA. Sorry for my streak.

Winter of Yore must translate to the winter of the southeast

Multiple rounds of thunder, awful for January.  Couldn't even get graupel which we had in a January thunderstorm a few years back.  Also, it's not coming this weekend

3 inches

18 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The old gfs did

This threat is far from over though. The ensembles show some good hits.

Not one run of the Euro or UKMET is a hit, this is the range where the Euro has by far the best scores, it's over and it never was on

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Maybe 1/2”

Great call on 2 inches south of Pike and 3 North

24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS trended flatter at 00z. Def not a good trend. Was hoping for better when the Ukie came in closer but didn't happen. We'll need to see a reversal pretty soon. 

Its over but then again it never was on

GFS should not be used for the foreseeable future

32 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

This would induce psychosis in some:

 

Looks like early December storm, almost to a tee

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He must mean that the SSW itself is fading because its peaking today...I though that he meant the impacts are fading.

It looks like Ventrice is saying that it will focus in Siberia.

That's been known since November

4 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

My car is still partially salt covered from my trip to Gore Mountain. Barely any snow OTG except past Albany.

Good mountain when we have a real winter 

15 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s 1-3” south .. Prob a lot of 2” pike south and 3” north . Pretty easy one 

56 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This one is a done deal for more than C-1" for a lot of the area and will be gone a few hours later. Congrats NNE. 

One of these is not like the other

40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What fell apart? Did I miss something? 

I think some on here are still expecting a big storm on Tuesday and then again next weekend.  Taking models verbatim 8 days plus out will do that.

12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

We Yore

Winter of Yore in full effect

1 hour ago, mreaves said:

000
NOUS41 KBTV 031426
PNSBTV
NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-040226-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
926 AM EST THU JAN 03 2019

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 25
HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION
IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS, COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS, SKYWARN
SPOTTERS, AND MEDIA PARTNERS FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO
AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON.

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS                   
                     SNOWFALL           OF 
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

NEW YORK

...CLINTON COUNTY...
   DANNEMORA              3.5   554 AM  1/03  BROADCAST MEDIA         
   PLATTSBURGH            2.7   604 AM  1/03  PUBLIC                  

...FRANKLIN COUNTY...
   DICKINSON              3.5   607 AM  1/03  PUBLIC                  

VERMONT

...CALEDONIA COUNTY...
   3 ESE EAST LYNDON      6.0   815 AM  1/03  BROADCAST MEDIA         
   HARDWICK               6.0   913 AM  1/03  BROADCAST MEDIA         

...CHITTENDEN COUNTY...
   WESTFORD               4.0   817 AM  1/03  BROADCAST MEDIA         
   2 NW BURLINGTON        2.0   640 AM  1/03  NWS EMPLOYEE            
   1 NE SOUTH BURLINGTO   1.8   644 AM  1/03  NWS OFFICE              

...FRANKLIN COUNTY...
   HIGHGATE SPRINGS       4.0   552 AM  1/03  BROADCAST MEDIA         

...LAMOILLE COUNTY...
   MORRISVILLE            6.0   751 AM  1/03  PUBLIC                  
   STOWE                  6.0   731 AM  1/03  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   EDEN                   4.0   556 AM  1/03  BROADCAST MEDIA         

...ORANGE COUNTY...
   WILLIAMSTOWN           3.8   820 AM  1/03  PUBLIC                  

...ORLEANS COUNTY...
   LOWELL                 3.0   616 AM  1/03  BROADCAST MEDIA         

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...
   WOODBURY               6.5   804 AM  1/03  PUBLIC                  
   CALAIS                 6.0   739 AM  1/03  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   WATERBURY CENTER       5.0   639 AM  1/03  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   MARSHFIELD             4.5   805 AM  1/03  PUBLIC                  
   WORCESTER              4.0   559 AM  1/03  BROADCAST MEDIA         
   MIDDLESEX              4.0   602 AM  1/03  BROADCAST MEDIA         
   EAST MONTPELIER        3.0   601 AM  1/03  BROADCAST MEDIA         

...WINDSOR COUNTY...
   SPRINGFIELD            4.0   814 AM  1/03  BROADCAST MEDIA         
   WOODSTOCK              2.5   826 AM  1/03  PUBLIC                  

Whiteface is reporting 6 inches, at least on top/

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I honestly have no clue what you mean LOL. I know people don’t want to hear it but I literally don’t know what to do. I certainly would rather be in your shoes next week. Hopefully it can come a little south.

Apparently you need to outright lie about what the EPS is doing or you are accused of "melting."  Notice hardly any posts of the EPS in this thread, many posts of the "great" 6z GEFS.  The pattern "change" keeps getting pushed back, the storm next Tuesday is a cutter with some CAD out ahead of it.  I don't expect the high to "lock" and to me any real snows look confined to the mountains.

45 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No one here expected that. You all said a 70/30 blend would happen 

I've been posting about the EPS for weeks and mostly ignored.  I don't even look at the GEFS.

7 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

I'd give it a couple more weeks, but if we see the good pattern pushing back once again, it may be time to toss in the proverbial towel as that would follow the trend of some other notable duds where the modeling always had the good pattern 10-15 days out but it never moved up in time...

Difference this time their is no good pattern modeled 10 to 15 days away.  EPS is ugly out to 360 hours.  Deep trough remains over Alaska the whole run.

What does your gut tell you?  Thought it was all in on the snow for tomorrow?  This time it's different?