qg_omega

What does your gut tell you?  Thought it was all in on the snow for tomorrow?  This time it's different?

1 minute ago, mikem81 said:

Clearly those crazy high amplitude phase 5/6 didnt pan out in the end. Something is going on with the mJO's forecast. They all seem terrible.

 

That was the GFS not the Euro

The pattern for the first 20 days of January remains horrific for winter weather.  It can snow in bad patterns for SNE / NNE and even in the mid Atlantic in the middle of January.  That does not change the fact this pattern shows no signs of changing.  EPS remain rock solid, GEFS as usual is caving and pushing any changes back in time.

EPS is leading the way here and it's much different than the GEFS

2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I can't see the NAM stuff for the euro, but the issue has been can the stratosphere couple with the troposphere. Some of the papers I have read is that you want -NAM in the 100-300mb zone to truly couple the troposphere with the stratosphere for impacts to start occurring. Looking at the latest plot (today hasn't updated) we continue to be in a +NAM index in that zone meaning the stratosphere isn't propagating down, atleast, yet. This could certainly change as we go out further as these impacts for the east usually take weeks to occur. You definitely want to keep an eye on this though. Not all SSW's have a response on the troposphere, think I saw 40% don't. They refer to them as nSSW's. Here is a good link to SSW's.

https://simonleewx.com/2018/12/27/not-all-ssws-were-created-equal/

Best post of the year

8 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The last of my coating is melting. Heading to the mountain now. Excited for some crazy winds.

Excited for closed lifts?

SSW Vortex Split

The biggest mistake a trader can make is holding on to a losing position and trying to convince everyone else why he is still correct and the market is wrong. 

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/UNG/

28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I firmly believe most if not all of Jan is lost. The mjo is not moving , stuck in phase 5/6 . The Pacific is absolutely hideous. It’s beyond bad. Jan 20 isn’t magically going to just look good as we get closer 

Wow you now agree to what I said in November.  We are finally on the same page

28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nothing to be said about the future.

Zero. Changes absolutely zero.

You talk in absolutes about something that is far from certain.  You fail to account what is currently happen and dismiss all notion you may be wrong.  This will be a learning experience for many on here.  

Just now, bluewave said:

Don’t feel so bad. Not much in the way of cold departures anywhere in the U.S.this December.

 

Northern Maine into NNE

In this pattern it's either a cutter or surpressed, nothing changes for at least another three weeks.

Just now, uncle W said:

I'm at 1400ft...a different world up here...

Not this winter so far

March snow is the worst snow

Just now, CoastalWx said:

There are lobes over NE Europe/NW Russia and NE Siberia. 

Those are all what I consider the other side of the globe in terms of our weather.  All not good locations, sure it can snow with that in NNE but that's mid January in NNE.  Those are not good positions for the Northeast as a whole.

EPS splits PV into other side of globe and northern Europe as I have predicted since the SSW showed up on models in November.  Huge risks with this as we can go pac fast gradient flow all of January with the PV over Siberia with another piece over Northern Europe.  

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s no threading any needle. Rains to Maine’s for many more days.

How bad was the recent ice storm for you?  I'm glad you finally see what this pattern really is, January is toast.

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I definitely am leaning towards that being a southern MA event if it happens.  More inclined to believe it probably reaches DCA this time though 

Mid Atlantic winter of YORE

2 hours ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

 

It's clear by your response that you do not understand long range forecasting. It's isn't a linear A+B+C. There are multifarious factors examined pre-season, and those indicators provide a general landscape of what will transpire for the winter. The exact timing as far as progression is more guesswork. The important part is if the forecast correctly ascertains the season overall, bearing in mind the apposite indicators.

I will not be drawn into the trap of impugning the CPC's work. However, their method of forecasting is probabilistic, and they typically err warm. 

Your post is non-scientific and provides no substantiation for your claims regarding the PV split.

I disagree but maybe that is why I do not forecast extremely long range.  To me its like a trader in a bad position and trying to justify why he is correct as he loses more and more money.  Maybe it really is a case of delayed but not denied, but its clear this winter is not progressing as many thought.  Call it the SSW, MJO, Positive SOI in an El Nino....the pattern screams pac jet and fast flow for the foreseeable future.    

December was forecasted by many to be warm across the conus, CPC nailed it on their month forecast issued late November.  It was clear very early on the MJO would have a prolonged stay in phase 5.  Personally, I believe the SSW event and possible split of the PV is a game changer to most winter forecasts and not for the better.  I have a very hard time with the delayed but not denied method of forecasting.  If your forecast required A + B + C + D and A failed and B was not as expected, you can't leave C and D alone as if A and B's failure don't have an impact.

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Big model swings from run to run and only transient cold shots until the MJO becomes more favorable.

1/15

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m just asking. Maybe he’s misinformed. 

I see three PV lobes, all over Europe.  No blocking and zonal pac flow over the country.  I know it's the 18z OP GFS but I don't care what model it is, I believe it has the right idea.  Agrees with my thoughts from early December after the snowstorm in November.  November snow historically is not a good sign for the winter.  We are going to miss a good six weeks of winter with a very hostile pattern.  I hope it changes in mid January but I'm not hopeful until we see the MJO actually move into phase 7.  It's currently stalled in 5 and that's going on 15 days.  I'm not trolling here but the misinformation in this forum spread by a small few is disappointing.

On 12/18/2018 at 10:05 PM, SnoSki14 said:

More like mid January, pattern still looks like garbage before that.

 MJO still stuck in phase 5 into the new year.

MJO still stuck in phase 5, PV splitting into Europe, my thoughts from 10 days ago still remain the same despite DIT calling an end to all rain and cutters

On 12/18/2018 at 8:37 PM, qg_omega said:

It's actually meaningless at this stage, just noise and a no storm is just as likely

Just as likely as flipping a coin at that range like I said

4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We’re there. The warm cuts are all gone. All that kid qc omega had left to troll with ... gone . Gone like your Chinese food tonight 

Lol the warm cuts are only gone in your head, rain on Friday