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qg_omega

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    December 2018 General Discussion & Observations

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    19 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

    One run, there was no snow at all. The next run there was 14". The former was a bleak nightmare. The latter was a wonderful dream.

    The city in question was Richmond. The model in question was the GFS. The runs were the 12/3/2018 12z and 18z runs.

    Run-to-run continuity was lacking.

    At this stage, it continues to appear that a storm will likely bring accumulating snow to portions of the Carolinas and Virginia. Cities such as Richmond and Raleigh will likely see accumulations.

    Whether the storm comes far enough north to bring at least light accumulations north of the Mason-Dixon line remains to be seen. However, even if it does not, winter 2018-19 still appears to be in line for above to much above normal snowfall across the Middle Atlantic, southern New England, and parts of the Great Lakes region. There still remains a window of opportunity for additional snow in the above region during the last week of December as the pattern becomes more volatile in the latter stages of a milder regime.

    Winter 2002-03 continues to provide insight. Much as happened then, the EPO is forecast to go positive. The latest EPS weekly forecast takes the EPO back to negative levels (ensemble mean) by around December 21. Afterward, it stays negative through mid-January (the end of the forecast period). In addition, during much of the time, the same guidance favors a negative AO. The EPO-/AO- combination was an important assumption in my expectation that winter 2018-19 will be very snowy in the Northeast. That such a combination is showing up on the EPS weekly guidance is an encouraging development.

    I disagree Don, much too early to say snow is likely for Carolinas or Virginia.

    • Like 1

    November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    6 hours ago, bluewave said:

    New coldest November minimum temperature on record for JFK. Low of 15 degrees with the previous coldest of 19 in 1987. LGA tied its coldest record at 17 degrees with 1955. The current low of 15 in NYC is the 5th coldest on record and coldest November temperature since 1930. HPN also set a new record coldest at 11 beating the previous record of 15 in 1976.

    This cold snap looks like coldest of winter relative to average

    • Haha 1

    November discussion

    in New England

    Posted

    32 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

    lol I almost chimed in earlier.  

    Discussing 100ft gradients is on another level.  Heck the house across the street is like 100ft higher than mine at 750ft vs 850ft.  But here anything under 1,200ft is the valley.  

    I keep trying to think about how much different the winter weather is on the scales discussed in the Methuen convo, and it must be that much more acute near the ocean.  I honestly don't think my neighbor 100ft higher and 100 yards away on Birch Hill Rd gets any more snowfall than my house.

    Generally need to see at least 500ft of elevation difference to really see a visible change.

    agreed, 100 vs 300 is meaningless.

    November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

    You mean how no one would see 50+ with the last storm (coast saw 60-65+). 

    Granted this is a much different setup but those forecast offices know better than most. 

    isolated to the immediate NJ shore, even JFK only gusted in the low 40s.  There were some areas that were able to mix out and got some strong winds but overall it was in the 40s:

    https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=21&glossary=0

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