qg_omega

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

I am hoping that the Euro is correct about the heavy rain potential Thursday night. We can really use the rain. Almost looks like a wannabe PRE with the tropical development in the Gulf. Not sure if the features are close enough to technically be called a PRE. But any rain after the dry last few weeks would be welcome.

 

We don't need the rain at all

Storms look SW of the area today, think most remain dry

NAM says what storms this afternoon

Need SI hail pics

A lot of shear but little instability

33 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

 when all is said and done this looks like a 2 inch job for Westchester 

 

Schools are closed… Again!

 

I never saw so many snow days in a winter that was pretty snowless

Schools aren't closed in White Plains have just under 2 inches.  Think schools were closed only one day this year.

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Storm 3 is a soaker on the NAM although still out of range

That's locked as a rain storm, best chance is tomorrow night

3 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I could be wrong (as I’ve mostly been since november) but I don’t see coastal areas seeing much snow on the Middle system of these 3 at all.  

Best shot of snow is Friday night into Saturday morning for the coast.  Monday is a rain storm.  Basically I like the exact opposite of what you posted in terms of snow

Just now, CoastalWx said:

 My guess is the GFS guidance is way too far south east. We will see more of a euro op solution. 

Agreed, wash rinse repeat

19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Weekend cutter gone.

storm gone.

Calm winds

Pattern remains the same as it has since December, one of the most persistent unfavorable patterns in many years.  It was well forecasted by some in December after the November snow and the SSW which sent the cold to the other side of the globe and helped reinforce the unfavorable MJO / strong pac jet couplet

Just now, NycStormChaser said:

It's not sleeting in midtown. 

It is I'm literally standing on the corner of 46th and 6th and it's all sleet. Do you know the difference between sleet and snow?

3 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Wtf are you talking about it’s still snowing

I am walking in midtown and it's pure sleet

46 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

4 hours later and no change over has occurred.  Think you should spend a little less time hammering Upton.

They predicted 4 inches for the park, last I saw it was 1.1 at the park and the snow is done.  That's not close, its been non accumulating sneet for hours.  We lost snow growth after the first hour.

1 minute ago, dmillz25 said:

I’m about 5 miles SE of the Park and I’m at an inch and still coming down 

yes big differences, inch already at JFK with a coating at the park and LGA.  This is the storm.

6 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

NYC is already at an inch. I guess it's suppose to stop immediately? Asking for a friend.  

Central park is not at an inch and yes, this is peak snow growth.  We loose the forcing and transition to sneet/sleet in the next hour.

10 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

NWS in Philly and NYC upped the snowfall forecasts for most of the advisory counties in CNJ, NNJ, NE NJ, NYC, and the Hudson Valley from 1-3" to 2-4".  Always thought 1-3" was too low.  Snowfall maps reflect significant increases vs. yesterday afternoon's, with many locations predicted to be right at 4" (makes me wonder why the advisories in many places aren't for 3-5").  Nice. 

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=winter weather advisory

 

That's an insane forecast for NYC, its like they have absolutely no memory and completely forgot their massive busts on every storm this winter.  This is the same pattern and another cutter.  NYC is NOT getting 4 inches of snow.  The PATTERN does not support this!  Maybe 1 inch of snow to rain and I'm worried that is high.  Very easily could be a few flakes going quickly to sleet than rain.  Last storm I went with zero snow while they had inches.  The soundings are horrid and snow growth very poor.  You have a dying band of snow/sneet which will be outrunning it's own dynamics, there is nothing good about the setup.

Not expecting more than an inch here in White Plains.  

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Based on the latest guidance through 18z, I have little changes to my thinking from yesterday.

My final estimates are as follows:

Albany: 3"-6"
Binghamton: 2"-4"
Boston: 2"-4"
Bridgeport: 1"-3"
Concord: 1"-3"
Hartford: 2"-4"
Islip: 1" or less (initial estimate was 1"-2")
New City: 1"-3"
New York City: 1" or less
Newark: 1" or less
Portland: 1" or less
Poughkeepsie: 2"-4"
Providence" 3"-6"
Scranton: 2"-4"
White Plains: 1"-3"
Worcester: 3"-6"

Nice forecast, I agree

2 minutes ago, uncle W said:

NYC needs 1.3" to reach 10" for the season...not the great winter I was expecting...I guess we were due for a clunker...the winter has some similarities with the 1936-37 winter...that winter ended up with 16" for the season...

How much in actual winter without the November storm

6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

There’s probably gonna be more snow tonight for NYC than from the storm a few days ago which is really sad.  

NYC had less than an inch last week, looks same tonight.

2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

TBH as odd as the RGEM snow distribution for tonight has been the 06Z Euro is almost as odd with 2-4 NYC west into New Jersey and also Connecticut coast but basically nothing for LI.  That shows you right there be careful with snow maps.   

It's rain NYC and Long Island it's not "odd" the boundary layer warms right up with East winds.

7 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I am glad I’m on vacation and not forecasting this one.  The thermals just aren’t that warm.  The air mass in place is fairly good and we have tons of room for evaporative cooling and only weak onshore flow off an ocean that is in late winter.  I could see anything from about 0 to 5 inches in NYC.  They will certainly go to rain even in the coldest scenario but by the time they do it could very well dry slot and be over.  I would probably go similar to Upton and say up to 2 inches of I had to  make a forecast.  This is really a difficult call for Upton and maybe the hardest one they’ve had all winter

Disagree, very straight forward brief snow to rain for NYC.  Inch of snow with a bit of rain at the end is an easy call.  

3 minutes ago, New York Blizzard said:

How about Central Park? Sorry to bother you

Rain