qg_omega

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

For us (maybe not E Suffolk) it looks like it's becoming more of a heavy rain vs wind threat. The front and developing low are trending east which means the resulting wind east of the front doesn't get going until later and after the front is past. But the rain is still very much a threat and there could be training heavy rain for a while as the low gets going. And the developing low could keep precip going well behind the front which means snow mixes in NW and especially in the higher elevations. Just about at our latitude a 700mb low closes off on the NAM/GFS which will help precip persist behind the low. 

Winds look only for SNE, NAM is tame until it gets to the forks to SNE, whole system has shifted, slightly better chance of a flip to snow but will see

33 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I still have the access!  

However I haven’t checked that site out in forever. Way better free tools out there now. I also obsessed over JB back then, haven’t cared what he’s had to say in the same just about forever. 

Golden age of Accu pro and the JB videos, his and the count pointer count show 

15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

QQtrollmega just quit the board…

We laugh

So easy to torch these days vs going below normal, sad times

No signs of any pattern change as we head into Jan

What a terrible pattern for the rest of the month 

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

This needs to improve before anyone can start talking snow 

 This 

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is going to be a rinse and repeat forecast right up to the Solstice and Christmas. We get a mix of days closer to normal and +5 to +10 days. So the back and forth between normal and days well above normal should keep us in the +2.5 to 5.0 temperature departure range. All the Arctic air will be on the other side of the globe for the foreseeable future.

 

 

Really ugly look for us

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The MJO is slowing in 4-7 and nobody said this month would be +13. So not sure where you are reading from. The bias corrected  Euro RMM is matching the GFS and Euro VP anomalies.
 

Huge change and kudos to you for understanding the impact of the very warm waters in 4 5 6 slowing down the convection 

57 minutes ago, bluewave said:

What do you consider a torch? To me any December over 40° in NYC is warm. 

40s are normal and cold for NYC in December, multiple 50s to 60s have become the new normal and we likely see that this weekend and very likely additional days this month

9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

there will always be Pacific air in Ninos. they aren't super cold or anything, just stormy

Agreed, but cold and stormy hype pays the bills

https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1730904418617352518?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg

Winter severe season looks to get going this weekend

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What would you like to see in order to feel optimistic about winter prospects?

MJO spending sufficient time outside of the warm phases, not seeing any evidence of that yet.  Cold moving to our side of the globe (currently opposite) and an improved PAC.  Basically the opposite of what we will have for December

51 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Lost a few birches. Let’s melt it all this weekend. 

You scored on the early season “cold” pattern, unfortunately that looks to change now for the next 4 to 6 weeks

We winter

Mid month torch, can call these years out at this point

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Those RMMs are chasing convection to the east. The actual VP anomaly charts from Euro and GEFS never get the actual forcing past 4-7 for the next few weeks.  But this is to be expected with the record +30C SSTs from near the Dateline to the Maritime Continent. Strong forcing near the Dateline is still in the warmer phase 7. 

 

 

Spot on, incredible analysis as usual from you

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

GEFS look pretty awful through the 19th and at least a few days after that.  Things definitely trending lights out til at least Christmas week. Hopefully we sneak in a snow event somewhere in there. No reason to freak out as most expected this. Hopefully the pattern progresses to what we want and think will happen by Christmas week. 

Yup most expected this December to be awful, most

59 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

For NYC (Central Park):

December 1961-1990: 36.6° mean temperature

December 1991-2020 (AO -1 or below): 36.4° mean temperature

December 1991-2020 (AO < 0): 37.6 mean temperature

I read what you said wrong, this shows even an AO under 1 now just gets us back to what we had without it

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today (1991-20), December days with an AO of -1 or below are as cold as all December days were during 1961-90 in NYC.

Unfortunately, this is not correct

Decent looking as expected, above normal.  Only question is +4 vs +8

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the TPV with this -NAO shifted over to Eurasia leaving a mild Pacific air mass in place across North America. As we found out in recent years, -NAO and -AO patterns can be very mild for us. This isn’t like the old days around 2010 when big -AO and -NAO drops meant cold. I think Don had a great post a while back on how the -AO and -NAO has become warmer for us. 

 

with the block we are +2 to +4, without it we would be +6 to +8

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I never "abandon" or change the final outlook product....graded as is. However, the tone of the update  is to simply imply a slightly cooler risk due to more blocking. But I also stated it will still be fairly mild until the PAC jet slows down. The most important note was the implication of this early blocking for later in the season.

Cold air will be in the other side of the pole all month, we are blocking PAC air, go warm 

We delay

Very impressive Super Nino