qg_omega

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I never "abandon" or change the final outlook product....graded as is. However, the tone of the update  is to simply imply a slightly cooler risk due to more blocking. But I also stated it will still be fairly mild until the PAC jet slows down. The most important note was the implication of this early blocking for later in the season.

Cold air will be in the other side of the pole all month, we are blocking PAC air, go warm 

We delay

Very impressive Super Nino

Hello Winter

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, a mild low 50s pattern to start the month with the warmer minimums dominating. While the highs aren’t that much above normal, the fast Pacific Jet is working against the -NAO influence. We may have a shot at 55-60° by mid-December as we lose the -NAO and the Pacific Jet continues on steroids. 

 

 

A day near 70 in December fits the persistence pattern we are in 

1 hour ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Interesting-I was thinking that looking at my cam overnight. My cam doesn't pick up snow very well at night based on lighting, etc but you could see the Sierra cement really coming down. Only got 2.7" here, but more than I thought since it was mostly rain before midnight. 

Got a couple of inches even at lake level, 400ish feet.  Forecast was just rain, about 7 inches up at Gore and another storm where Gore cleaned up as Whiteface rained, second time this past week

39 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Birch in the yard is just flattened.

What an over performer.  Measuring about 7” on colder surfaces at home.

Well forecasted on the models, if you actually believed the output.  NWS dismissed for most, was a great storm for the mountains

On 11/25/2023 at 2:56 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

all major ensembles are in agreement and they all look great

11 to 16 forecasts, even if all in agreement, are very low skill

5 hours ago, powderfreak said:

17F.

Tonight looks like it could be a fairly decent elevation snow event for parts of VT and especially NH/ME.

Gore off to a fast start vs WF, another big Gore storm with rain at WF

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

You were talking about a wintery precip threat a while back for late November. I pointed out to you that we seldom see this with a piece of the trough hanging back to the SW . Any amplified short waves will pump the SE ridge which is what is happening with this storm system. So we only need a SE ridge for 1 day to result in a warmer storm track. 

Great pattern recognition here

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Nyc 30 

Nice call

9pm 14 degrees, just got out of the pool

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

I’d take even just some snow showers at this point. We used to get occasional snow showers by late November, flurries etc. Seems like it’s all or Nothing in more recent times 

Got married 10 years ago today, had a great snow squall that night that laid down some snow

NYC likely misses another freeze this weekend, but will hit next week

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Warm sector fail today 

55 and sunny is no good?

28 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Even the slightest ripple in the flow is causing mixed precip up north.  I think the terrain is playing a huge role in p-types up north.  Almost wonder if the lower or less severe elevation changes in areas south are not disrupting the marginal mid-level thermals as much?

You want to be on the SE facing side of any terrain up north right now.

4 inches near Gore already

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Steady light snow now.

Pretty interesting at how marginal it is… the ridge lines around here are showing mixed precipitation on the crests and immediately W/NW.

The Worcester Range is causing a pocket of sleet on the east side of Stowe, and the Green Mtn Spine is causing it on the west side.  Just the slightest downslope of mid-level air causing sleet.

Freezing rain at SLK and puking Snow at ALB and GFL

11 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Looks like 20s tomorrow night in the city.

What?

17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

When I think of November.  This season has been what I imagine.  Some cold days, a steady seasonable chill, and one true torch out ahead of a trough/cold front.

Today’s vibe was what I think of when I imagine the back half of November up here.  A skiff of cold snow on the ground (dusting-3” depending on elevation), frosty ridges, low sun angle, cold, and snow guns blasting away at the ski areas.

This November has gone about how climate norms would have it.  Hopefully normal carries through the winter.

November’s have been ok past few winters, it’s the mid December warmth that’s killed

NYC waits

A famous cold spot in our forecast area, Saranac
Lake, has a forecast low of around 0 degrees Fahrenheit. It`s only a
single night with this frigid cold though, as a storm system
approaching will advect in milder air and increasing clouds for the
following periods.

Classic strong Nino as we head into December

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1726680020041814171?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg

54 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Fri nite/ Saturdays’ system looks like that could coat up some places with snow showers . Thats got a chance. Tomorrow night is reserved mainly for N ORH county for a few hours