qg_omega

Euro is east, sell the wind threat

Euro is off the coast, not seeing a big wind threat with this outside Suffolk and NE

31 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Winds def seem to me more of a threat for more people this weekend compared to this past Sundays storm 

Need track to west of us and then yes

20 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

GEFS 10mb Anomaly

 

GEFS control 10mb anomaly 

 

 

 

PV will get pushed to the other side of the globe yet again

33 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I don't know how anyone downplays the wind.  No inversion at all.

Bag full of meh on the wind potential 

1 hour ago, Tezeta said:

Wow a 972 nor’easter. Wish I had something that powerful to track. Good luck everyone!

No high pressure to the north, general area of lower pressure.  Winds look meh

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Would be a disaster for the ski resorts 

Expected these days, really awful pattern next few weeks

17 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

28F this morning.

Dont look now, but…looks like that storm really pulls in a lot of cool air behind it. haha 

one to two days of normal and right back to well above

1 minute ago, leo2000 said:

By looking at those temperatures you would think it was an inferno nowhere close to that. 

 

Widespread 20 above normal but nothing to see here?  

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

But it’s only December 12th..And it’s(winter) already been cancelled(we’ll at least to the end of January)…these folks didn’t even wait the extra 8 days lol. 

Nothing for you next month bud

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

What? There’s been no preference on the MJO this cold season

 

Stalled in 7

On 12/6/2023 at 9:01 AM, MJO812 said:

We shall see but right now , nothing points to a stall .

I guess we have to wait and see what happens near the holidays. 

 

Also , It takes 7 days for th.e MJO to go through 4 5 6 

The slowup will be in phase 8

Nice call

On 12/4/2023 at 8:22 AM, qg_omega said:

MJO spending sufficient time outside of the warm phases, not seeing any evidence of that yet.  Cold moving to our side of the globe (currently opposite) and an improved PAC.  Basically the opposite of what we will have for December

No changes

28 minutes ago, rcostell said:

Not New England, but not far. Hope you don't mind.  About 7-8 inches of very heavy wet snow at 32 degrees almost throughout, here at 1800' near Whiteface. Power out for hours, some trees down in immediate (very rural) area. Birch bender for sure. Still snowing lightly, bit of upslope. Down in nearby WIlmington- probably 4 inches or less- elevation driven. 

Very nice, was up at Whiteface Lodge over thanksgiving weekend and had more snow in the lower elevations than at hotel elevation which is just about 2k.  Looks like normalization has resumed.

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

60 degrees at 10 pm on 12/10 crazy 

New normal, won’t be last 60 this month

No wind and under half inch so far, big bust so far

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the MJO is contributing to the more +NAO/AO late month, but I agree the PAC jet is the main cause of the warmth.

MJO stalling in 7 as predicted by many is a likely cause

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I  had +1 to +3 this month, so 1.9 would work.

Yup, I’ll take the over on +3 despite the next week of weather.  Torch will trend very impressive to end the month, warmest of the month despite temps over 60 today

Biggest mistakes a forecaster can make is observing what is actually happening and thinking A + B doesn’t equal C

https://x.com/jhomenuk/status/1733920472092356620?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg

Storm is a full bag of meh as expected

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Unfortunately ( well ... not for you but for the winter enthusiasts), the numerical teleconnection spread shuts down cold loading into North America, ~ after the 20th.  This is also in conflict with the erstwhile consensus for wintry turn at the end of the month, interestingly. 

I've been keeping track ...about 3 or 4 days ago, the WPO projection flipped sign. As of last night, all the way up to +2SD.  And then out around the 20th or so, the EPO goes positive mode.  There is a lag correlation between the two, where preferentially ... the EPO will eventually modulate toward where the sign of the WPO - given time.  So the EPO rising isn't a surprise considering -  

So, that giant Chinook generator pattern is not a terrible fit for the strengthening +WPO/+EPO  ...  state that would (also) be in conflict for the consensus idea that things would turn inimically better during the end of the month.  

None of this hugely confident.  Even relative to climo/modeling climo that is so. We've been observing wholesale hemispheric modulations that are unusual - considering the mass of the whole thing?  Definitely either a artifact of modeling (somehow) or something weird is happening...  where pattern simulacrums that no sooner, blow up and become something else entirely about ever 3 days.  So I'm not completely sold that the above Pacific scaffolding is going to become history.  

 

I’m a huge winter enthusiast, if their were encouraging sings for winter I’ll post them.  Unfortunately their are no signs of winter for most of the country, north east included for the next month

On 12/8/2023 at 9:04 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

pattern changes up after Christmas, most likely

51 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That Pacific Trough will be off the charts for the 2nd half of December.

 

 

Increasing signs of a torch Xmas to New Years

https://x.com/snewxcenter/status/1733487683895226478?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

For us (maybe not E Suffolk) it looks like it's becoming more of a heavy rain vs wind threat. The front and developing low are trending east which means the resulting wind east of the front doesn't get going until later and after the front is past. But the rain is still very much a threat and there could be training heavy rain for a while as the low gets going. And the developing low could keep precip going well behind the front which means snow mixes in NW and especially in the higher elevations. Just about at our latitude a 700mb low closes off on the NAM/GFS which will help precip persist behind the low. 

Winds look only for SNE, NAM is tame until it gets to the forks to SNE, whole system has shifted, slightly better chance of a flip to snow but will see