qg_omega

2 inches in white plains measured on table, forecast was for zero.  Got down to 32.6, still no freeze yet

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

NG price this evening is up 4% likely due to the end of the 12Z GEFS and EPS being colder than how the late in the run 12Z runs looked Fri/BN in the E US, where NG is most heavily used in cold season. This negates the price drop of Thursday that was largely due to warmer models that day.

NG is a heavily manipulated market

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

 

 

Did either of you bother to look at ensembles for December 1st, the "start of December? " Apparently not. But it explains why qg is 5 posted. Where exactly is the record warmth?

Insane to look at anomalies, they will be wrong when the pattern verifies

This sums up last winter

Record warmth looks likely to start December 

29 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Time to unbuckle 

 

 

We unbuckle

5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Oh I have no doubt itll be an excellent snow year for the northern Lakes. For the southern Lakes there are some things I like and some things I don't like.

It won’t be

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

I agree. But it's still good for the northern US. It's what causes those nina crazy temp gradients.

Not this year

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am glad you were able to use it. The Euro seasonal that just updated continues this expanded subtropical ridge and marine heatwave pattern for the entire run. While not looking at exact temperature departures and 500 mb height anomalies, it’s noteworthy how little cold air is available in the Northern Hemisphere for the winter forecast in the means.

 

 

 

 

one of the easiest winter forecasts in a long time, look at last year and the year before and extrapolate forward.

14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm about halfway home on this year's effort...bringing a renewed perspective this year that is less ENSO saturated and more CC conscious. Hope to post early next week.

Nothing has changed, maritime heatwave if anything is strongest its ever been.  Warm and snow less winter is on its way +4 to +8.

Keep sprinklers on until December?

CC will move the winter belt north every year, it’s already moved 300 miles north in the past 15 years

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You will love my outlook.

+4 to +8, 2027 may be ok

3 hours ago, Boston Bulldog said:

I would caution against getting excited about the long range deterministic models showing some “winter-like” storm activity. Ensembles are still very hostile with the ridging through mid month, maybe we can squeeze out a cool shot in about 10 days on the backside of the troughing anomaly over the Maritimes.

I would watch for some cutters after mid month with hints of a -PNA showing up. Honestly that’s progress toward a cool season pattern, considering where we are starting this month. 

it looks record warm this month, no one is expecting any "winter like" storm activity 

23 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Here is my winter guess/forecast. Not going into huge detail to bore everyone but here goes. This is for Dec-Mar:

Oscillations (average) Dec-Mar: 

NAO: Positive

AO: Positive

PNA: Negative/RNA

EPO: Positive

WPO: Neutral

PDO: Strongly negative

AMO: Positive, w/continued New Foundland warm pool

IOD: Negative, has taken on a decided negative signature the past month

ENSO: (ONI) Weak La Niña/cold-neutral; RONI and MEI will likely be lower

QBO: Strongly positive

Solar: Very High, continued high number of sunspots, radio flux and geomag activity

MJO: Favoring phases 4-6, Eastern Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent forcing. Very strong standing wave/OLR/-VP in that area the entire month of October, pattern feedback loop

Temps Dec-Mar average (NYC metro area):

+2 - +4

Snowfall Dec-Mar average (NYC metro area): 

Below normal; *Hardest to predict given that one storm could skew the entire season*

Main analog: 2001-2002

Reasoning:

Record drought/low soil moisture, pattern persistence since August 20th. Very dry falls correspond to below normal winter snowfall. I believe this continues throughout November. Actually is a way better correlation than fall temps

PDO/EPO: Is and has been record negative (-3) , Persistent GOA/Bering Sea cold pools favor +EPO

PNA: -ENSO, -IOD; favors Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent forcing (MJO 4-6)

NAO/AO: High solar; high geomag activity, high sunspots, +QBO, -ENSO, +AMO w/New Foundland warm pool. AO: SPV projected to get very strong and very cold this month, fits with the above (solar, QBO, ENSO relationship). As far as the “SAI”, which I don’t follow for its very glaring failures in the past, but for those who do, Siberian snowcover buildup completely fell apart the last 2 weeks of October and is now perfectly normal. Not saying it’s completely irrelevant, but I don’t buy into it

WPO: Marine heatwave east of Japan strongly favoring an Aleutian High/ridge regime, which I believe will be a flat ridge as opposed to a poleward one the majority of the time

AMO: After briefly taking on a negative look late this summer, has gone right back to a positive signature. Atlantic SST profile has completely lacked any semblance of a “tripole” at any point since June; favors +NAO and beefed up SE ridge/WAR this winter, as does tropical forcing

QBO: Already eclipsed +12 in September, anomalies showing continued strengthening in October. Strongest on record (30mb) is +15, we may approach or even surpass that record when it peaks this winter; thinking the peak comes Dec/Jan

Arctic Sea Ice: Record low. I believe this will potentiate the +AO, +NAO. A recent study (2021) found that low arctic sea ice in combination with +QBO (especially in a Niña) results in a strong SPV/+AO

Volcanism: Cumulative VEI 5 eruptions of tropical volcano Ruang, which reached the stratosphere back in April. Although this will clearly NOT have the effect of a Pinatubo, it *may* possibly help to magnify the other factors mentioned influencing the AO/NAM

Atlantic ACE: Although ACE picked up to normal in October after being much below normal, it is still well below the 200+ number which has shown some correlation to the NAO in the past. So really no big signal either way on that. A non factor this time around

Good luck to everyone else with your winter outlooks

great job, think your Dec - Mar average is too low given all the indices you list.

 

 

great job, think your dec - mar average is too low given all the indices you list predicted above.  Will be hard to not be 4+ given the above.

8 hours ago, George001 said:

Over the past 90 days it has been slightly warmer than average but not a torch. The first half of November does look quite warm though.

It’s been the warmest year on record in your location

No reason to not go record warm every month, we have been locked in for the past 5 winters and the maritime heat wave due to CC has fundamentally changed our winters.

These dry frontal passages are wild

4 hours ago, forkyfork said:

halloween records:

ewr 82

lga 81

nyc 81

jfk 75

isp 73

bdr 75

hpn 73

Will break many if not all

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

 

A mild November is one thing, but I sure don't see historic warmth.

This year has been the warmest on record

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think November will have a really nice stretch.

Looks like historic warmth

8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Same here. Not worried about snowfall averages at all in the Great Lakes. More worried about retention. 

You are king IMBY, congrats

Pure insanity for end of October but the new normal unfortunately

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That wasn't my point. ..I am referring to the amplitude of the MC MJO later this month as an indicator for winter.

It’s well timed for the record warmth upcoming 

18 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

vastly warmer than normal winter with one or two short duration cold incursions

not shocked if your local climate sites are +4+ every month 

You can copy and paste that every year ever be set