qg_omega

On 11/18/2023 at 9:43 AM, qg_omega said:

Not seeing any cold, she’s gone

14 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

CPC drunk with this map. The whole thing should be shifted some 750 miles west

With regard to SNE, there is one day BN on the 6z GEFS through next weekend, and that’s tomorrow. 

Tuesday will start cold but end normal to slightly AN for most. 
 

 

Old data before the GFS sht the bed

23 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

@ORH_wxmanwas tracking 2 potential snowstorms during this window

The GEEFSE just shit on his head

 

CMC and Euro FTW

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

As usual it’s always some sort of a compromise. 

Not seeing any cold, she’s gone

Models have done a 180 on the cold, not a good sign for the winter

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro is cold. 

One day before another cutter

Cold is completely gone, same old pattern.  GFS should never be used

Euro is very warm next week

Cold after thanksgiving is fleeting 

Updated

2 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Big GL Cutter. We knew. Warm sector easily up to Winne. +NAO with deepest surface cold over the upper midwest. Nothing stopping a bend back into central ontario

 

 

 

This won’t age well 

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Next weeks storm keeps trending west. Nice cutter now 

Nice cutter

Missing a good phasing opportunity this weekend

Another warm thanksgiving on the models

5 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

i understand how ensembles paint a decent picture of the upcoming pattern, however; the GFS operational model has been consistently showing a thanksgiving cold shot. it's out in fantasy land still so who really knows what will happen. just another view, who really knows?

Fantasy, use ensembles good agreement on warmth

Looks warm for thanksgiving

14 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.8° (0.2° below normal).

Time will tell but I have a hard time seeing how November doesn’t finish at least 1 degree above normal if not more

On 11/7/2023 at 7:34 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Temperatures rose into the 60s across the region today. However, parts of the Plains States saw monthly record highs. Monthly records included: Amarillo: 88°; Borger, TX: 91°; Childress, TX: 94°; Gage, OK: 93°; Hollis, OK: 95°; Vernon, TX: 92°; and, Wichita Falls, TX: 90°.

Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler before milder air returns on Thursday.

Afterward, a strong cold front, perhaps preceded by some showers, will bring a period of colder weather to the region. Overall, the first 10-14 days of November remains on track for a cold anomaly.

The long-range guidance is continuing to move into consensus that the second half of November could be generally warmer than normal. Whether that will set the stage for a mild Thanksgiving week remains to be seen.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around November 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.58°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. That transition is currently underway.

The SOI was -18.71 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.580 today.

On November 3 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.122 (RMM). The November 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.310 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.8° (0.2° below normal).

 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.8° (0.2° below normal).

Time will tell but I have a hard time seeing how November doesn’t finish at least 1 degree above normal if not more

Sleeting

9 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

why can’t you just have a reasonable take without going balls to the wall? i agree that Dec is likely +1-3, but why not just say that instead

fair, I will take the over on +3 throughout the Northeast

7 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the +EPO/+NAO pattern on the EPS matches up with most mod-strong Ninos... the hand wringing about this being the winter pattern by some is pretty ridiculous as Nov/Dec are usually quite warm here

What happened to the lack of El Niño forcing everyone was harping on?

7 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

my point is that what's happening in November isn't representative of the deep winter pattern

December is likely going to be crappy and meltdowns will begin, I'm pretty sure of it. same shit happened in 2015 when everyone was crying before Boston got 100" in 6 weeks

Well above normal looks likely for December

59 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Looks like a mild tomorrow and then fairly typical November temperatures.

Well above normal upcoming

3 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Reality Check-

 

The first 15 will be average, maybe slightly below with some -10 departures in there.

The mets who know more than 90 percent of us have been calling for it to get milder mid month

Winter is 12 weeks long and we are still 6 weeks before it even starts

The average high for BOS is currently 55

A call for 70s on Thanksgiving day has as much a chance of verifying as the 12Z GFS 384 Op showing 30s for highs three days before T-day.

The entire month of November was not a torch as some advertised in mid October nor did any of my kids Halloween candy turn to diarrhea

 

Winter starts December 1st