qg_omega

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I need something to break right....I feel like the last two years, last season and this one, I have had damn good seasonal efforts that just haven't amounted to anything where it counts...snowfall. I feel like I have largely had the pattern right, but it just refuses to snow. You try to point out great looks to validate the forecast and it just gets eye rolls.

It’s been a historically warm DJF, snowfall aside

44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe some light snows in Southeast mass early next week?

Congrats

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

At least the useless cold shot is trending warmer. Maybe I can have my first winter without a below 0F temp.

From this

To this and we aren’t done trending, LOL, horrific.  Just end this “winter”

Not shocking, we lost the direct shot of artic air this weekend.  Now it’s glancing at best, whole setup shifted east.

Omega block looks to roll east 2nd week of February while the weekend cold shot trends milder.  One of the quietest first two weeks of February I’ve seen modeled.  Makes sense we would regress a bit from the epic wet pattern of the past many months

7 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Not boring…..Not

19 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ok so you say no threats at all Feb 1-14? Let’s exchange Venmo’s for a friendly wager? I can use that for a valentines gift for the wife. 

Done, PM me

16 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I’m with you, it’s hard to write off Feb 1-14 that’s peak climo. The pattern doesn’t look like an all out torch so I’d lean that there will be something to at least track whether it’s a hit/miss  or light/moderate event  I’m sure something will creep up.  Then the weenie set up we’ve all been waiting for is now Feb 12th ish to early March. Let’s see I’m not sold on any great pattern setting up since one hasn’t set up in over 2 years. 

lol nothing changes in two weeks, how can you constantly be wrong and continue doing the same thing

1 hour ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

It's back. And right now with CMC indicating snow over the mid Atlantic States the likely track would keep this too far to our south and east and we'd stay high and dry. But the HP position is perfect on this run. It would only take some subtle changes to cause this system to track a little further north or turn up the east coast (less likely but still not impossible). So we watch and wait but it's still NOT boring.

WX/PT

It’s actually very boring, looks dry with nothing of interest for the next two weeks at least

Few saw this coming

Nothing of interest from now to Valentine’s Day at the earliest

This will likely verify from 300 hours out, as they do

56 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

big Nino stuff here

could be good for NC and VA or could be rain, not a good pattern for the NE tho

4 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Two runs in a row pointing to a major storm of some kind somewhere on the east coast on February 5th. Yes, temperatures are marginal but this kind of storm can make its own cold air and its centered around February 5th, a rather historic time-frame. Not only that comparing last night's run to this one, changes are not subtle from run to run, last night's run being colder. I think it's worth watching this.

WX/PT

 

6 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Boom! It's not boring.

WX/PT

Nice El Niño rainstorm but that is pure fantasy, pattern does not support

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

I am so sick of this weather… It’s like Nova Scotia on a bad day in July. Terrible.

Beauty of a spring day today

4 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

This might or might get this far north but not boring. 

WX/PT

Zzzz, pattern supports upper level lows diving into the SE and then crushed out to sea.  It’s a spring time pattern

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have news for you...models do not print out physically implausible solutions. Don't waste any more of your 5 disputing this fact, dude.

If you actually took any meteorology courses you would know that statement is incorrect

32 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i don’t think that the GFS solution is likely by any means, but it certainly is a possibility

No, it’s not.  Zero

12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

are we even punting at this point for storm potential? let alone a torch

lol its fake, a country wide torch is much more likely then the GFS shown pattern

Two weeks of zero on the Euro after the rain on Sunday

47 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

In more exciting news, my snow depth actually increased to 17" today! Had to measure on a hill as it was the only untouched spot I could find. I found this unedited snippet from JPL that could explain the increase. It was likely due to the warm weather and water expansion.

By far of the biggest posts ever, wow

This looks like zero for NYC and the coast

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc is further north.  Congrats guys.