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qg_omega

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Everything posted by qg_omega

  1. Wednesday rain was well modeled on OPs at 340 hours out, ensembles not so much
  2. Few years ago had that massive pack for over a month. Remember had snow stuck in my wheel causing it to unbalance and it stayed like that for weeks. Unimaginable these days
  3. Makes sense and fits the pattern and strong El Niño, have been warning on the south based block, see last winter
  4. https://x.com/ayeejuju/status/1738972353848336605?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg
  5. November was a much better winter month than December which has been horrid.
  6. Blocking further south now, not the same. Further south blocking has become a winter staple
  7. If IYBY is all of the Northeast and Atlantic Canada, agreed
  8. This is insane for the time of year and storm track, madness again. One of the worst Decembers ever. Also this storm track and outcome hasn’t changed on the OPs from 300+ hours out
  9. Posted in NYC thread I dont see anything to get excited about in the long range, transient cold to start the year but pattern favors clippers or cutters unfortunately
  10. Historically bad December in terms of winter for most of the country and Canada, rivals the most epic fail starts off all time
  11. I dont see anything to get excited about in the long range, transient cold to start the year but pattern favors clippers or cutters unfortunately
  12. Ok https://x.com/paulroundy1/status/1737798350517252271?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg
  13. Negative PNA is favored for January
  14. Insane warmth this month, November was a more wintry month yet again
  15. Last years December was miles better than this month, had record cold vs record warmth across the country
  16. Incredible warm start to winter for the country and the continent, historic warmth fueled by the super Nino. Classic well coupled strong Nino
  17. That’s the point, ensembles have showed the better pattern 10 to 15 days away and are wrong. Canada is a blow torch and I don’t see any changes until Canada cools down significantly. The conus warmth this month and into YEAR END is historic. We aren’t just going to “flip” colder without massive changes. I see nothing for the next three weeks, maybe I’ll be wrong, lets hope. The reasons I outlined two weeks ago have not changed.
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