Blizzard of 93

Here are CTP’s thoughts for early next week. Cooler temperatures will slowly seep back into the area Sunday into early next week in the wake of the aforementioned cold front. At the same time, an upper- level trough traversing the central United States should aid in the development of sfc low pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Long range models track this low towards the Mid-Atlantic region in the Monday/Monday night timeframe. There is still considerable uncertainty in terms of the amount of cold air in place ahead of the system as well as the track of the surface low. These two ingredients will be critically important for what, if any, impacts there are from wintry precipitation. A few members of the GEFS and ECENS depict potential for significant snowfall across portions of Central PA but many others bring little to no snow to the region. Our current forecast depicts a consensus forecast with snow across the northern tier and Laurel Highlands with rain in southern PA. This matches well with the WPC Winter Storm Outlook that paints a 10-30% chance of plowable snowfall in the Laurels and northern mountains. Significant changes in the forecast are possible (if not likely) in the coming days and interests should check back on the forecast frequently.

It’s all good & I appreciate your posts & contributions on here. Truthfully, no one knows exactly how this will play out over the last 6 weeks of realistic snow season. I am looking forward to tracking the good & bad on here over the next several weeks. Hopefully we get a few snow wins before we start counting mows in April.

Again, see you at 0z…. Seriously, relax, it’s 1 freaking long range GFS run. It just had a fantasy snowstorm the previous 3 runs, but as soon as that goes away, you believe that one?! I don’t get it…

18z GFS was not too far off from the good run at 6z earlier today. I think we are still in the game with 5 days to go.

Lol, 1 bad run & you’re out….?!? See you at 0z…!

6z GEFS is on board for early next week.

If we can score even a little bit with early next week, while tracking something like what the GFS has for PD weekend…. Oh my….

21 in Marysville

For PD weekend, the 0z & 6z GFS both had coastal storms that hit the Mid Atlantic.

6z GFS also has a rain to snow scenario with a rapidly strengthening low that gets down to the 970s just before our latitude. The track this run rides up I-95 & crushes most of CTP this run, with heavy amounts the further north & west in our region.

0z Euro has a rain changing to snow scenario for early next week for our region with minor accumulations.

0z GFS gets snow to CTP, with more from the turnpike on north for early next week this run.

Read the @psuhoffman post that I re-posted on the previous page… Again, buckle up!

@psuhoffman is one on the best & most knowledgeable posters on this entire forum… He does not hold back when things do not look good. When he is optimistic & confident, it certainly gets my attention.

Great post today by @psuhoffman on the upcoming pattern potential. Rest up & buckle up!

18z GFS has a strengthening low passing off to our south & east for early next week. Plenty of upside potential if this track would be close to verifying. This is a way to win in a marginal situation.

SOI continues to absolutely tank. Largest single day contribution yet with a -41

6z GFS shifted a bit north overnight & this run was a good snow hit most most of CTP to roughly north of the turnpike. All of us are still in the game for early next week.

0z Euro is on board for the early next week chance. The low really intensifies off of the DelMarVa this run.

The 0z GFS then has a follow up smaller snow event a few days later to tack on a few more inches of snow.

Lol, I really want to believe this 0z GFS for early next week.

Thanks for the detailed post. I have a good feeling that this place will be very busy in the coming weeks with all of the potential on the table.

My main focus for now is trying to get this pattern change off to a nice start if the 12th to 14th period can work out.

I’ve seen the ensembles & just posted them. I see nothing but exactly what we should be rooting for if you like Winter Storm chances in February. This is a beautiful pattern on the way & there has been no can kicking. All we do now is wait for the specific opportunities.

12z Canadian ensemble day 8 & 16