Blizzard of 93
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Everything posted by Blizzard of 93
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I fell asleep early last night & missed this 0z coastal storm on the GFS for the 13th.
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It’s a shame, hopefully he can be back towards the end of the season for the playoffs.
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Disclaimer: These 15/16 day ensemble maps are just being shown to show a trend & to just be a tool to monitor pattern potential… Anyway, today is the first time since the last snowstorm on January 20th that each of the 3 ensembles have shown the “blue” pushing this far south into northern MD.
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Lol, same here. I’m hoping the threat on the 12th to 14th gets us some frozen to track. As @psuhoffman said recently, the H5 looks that we are seeing don’t come around often. Many times there are several years in between when we get these kind of pattern chances. The long range guidance was consistently showing the potential & now the ensembles have the pattern progression beginning on the 12th.
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I gassed up my snowblower today…
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I see great blocking up top, an undercutting STJ & a 50/50 low. I am not concerned in the least with Super week ridging showing in the upper Midwest on day 16, Also, yesterday the ensembles tried to do the same thing as what you showed, but it was gone by 12z today across all ensembles by day 16.
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Like you, @mitchnick & I just posted… the GFS is swinging wildly from run to run…no reason to worry or get excited by anything it shows, especially beyond day 7. All of the ensembles are locked in on a pattern change by the 13th with no can kick.
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Lol, just look at the changes that I just posted above with the changes at day 8 just from 12z to 18z…. I think this upcoming blocking is frying the GFS circuits!
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Yes, huge change on the GFS. 12z had a low over Cleveland & the 18z has a low over New Orleans at the exact same time.
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Either way, whether there are 1 or 2 waves in this period, it is the beginning of the new pattern & certainly 1000000% better than what we are dealing with during this current week.
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Here you go
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This runs from Sunday evening until Wednesday evening, but give me a minute.
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Here is the 12z EPS snow just for this 12th to 14th period.
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Good signal on the 12z EPS for the 12th to 14th potential. The precip panels seem to indicate a flatter potential, but the mean low positions have the same general idea with a western track low transferring to the coast. Long way to go, but we might finally have something specific to track.
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Same theme on the 12z GEFS. Better pattern arrives by the 13th & is going strong with impressive Greenland blocking by the 20th.
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Here you go.
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Here is the 12z Euro snow map for this run for this potential event on the 12th.
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The Euro has a Nice front end thump of snow on the 12th. Then it changes to a mix & rain for the southern tier. The low transfers a bit late for us this run to keep us all frozen, but we have a long way to go. I would take this to start off the new pattern.
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Canadian ensemble looks good at 10 & continues through day 16. Look at that blocking on day 16…
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I wouldn’t recommend planting anything now with what looks to be on the way for the second half of February.
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Good thing the GEFS is still on track with the better look on day 10 & 12.
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It really went off the rails this run. Hopefully it gets a clue in the coming days.
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The SOI continues its tanking, which it has been doing for the last several days. Here’s the latest.
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Hopefully the other guidance continues to push the 13th chance south. Just a day or 2 ago it was showing as a cutter on the long range GFS & ensembles.
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Lol, I do not know that particular snowman…!
