Blizzard of 93
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Everything posted by Blizzard of 93
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We still have a long way to go until the Monday night/Tuesday am event. Later today, the NAM & RGEM wil be in range towards the end of their runs. The Euro & GFS say we are in the game, so it will be interesting to see where this ends up by Monday.
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It kind of looked that way at the end of the RGEM as well.
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I’d rather have it showing the chance of a whiff instead of congrats Binghamton & Worcester like many models showed a day or 2 ago.
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6z GEFS individual ensemble members for early next week say that there is more of a risk of a whiff with not much of a storm instead of a miss to the north. Plenty of good snow hits for CTP on the individual members as well.
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6z GEFS moved moved with its snow line. It actually keeps DC in the game this run. It puts the LSV in the sweet spot this run. 6z top 0z bottom
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Convergence continues with the 6z GFS moving the snow line a bit north, but this still works well for most of CTP.
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0z Euro has continued its march to the south & now looks similar to the GFS. Convergence is underway & it puts most of CTP in a good spot. Here is the 0z Euro.
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If anyone wants a late night treat, the rest of the 0z GFS brings a few more snow events throughout the run. The total snow map is a thing of beauty.
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Good, I want the lows to Erie or Cleveland eliminated. Give me a track under us or one that has a low dying off in WV before a jump towards the coast.
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0z GEFS has the mean low position a little south east of 18z.
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The 0z Canadian tonight also continues to adjust south. Check out the difference between 0z tonight & 0z last night. Top-0z last night with a low near Erie Bottom-0z tonight with a low in NC
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Yes indeed! The Initial low dies in southern WV & then secondaries off of the DelMarVa while rapidly strengthening into the 980s. Then it exits northeast.
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18z EPS slight shift south over 12z. 18z EPS also upped snow amounts for the LSV this run. 12z top 18z bottom
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Hopefully it’s the beginning of convergence.
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I can’t wait for his snow map for us on Monday…
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PD storm is alive on the 18z GFS.
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This 18z GEFS now looks similar to the 12z EPS for most of CTP. Here is EPS at 12z to compare.
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18z GEFS ticked north from its 12z run, but is still good for all of CTP.
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Hopefully 0z tonight or 12z tomorrow brings some convergence between the models. It was good to see the Euro & EPS step towards the GFS today. I think a compromise will still work well for most of us in here.
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I think all of us would sign now for this 18z GFS run.
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Lock it in please… if only…
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Nice shift south on the 12z EPS as well. 12z top 6z bottom
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A compromise might put us in the sweet spot…
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Canadian also made quite the shift south as well. 0z was near Erie & 12z is in the DelMarVa at the same time stamp. 0z top 12z bottom
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Checking in over lunch & good to see the Euro make a large shift south from 0z to 12z. The “blue” made about a 75 mile shift south this run. 0z top 12z bottom
