Blizzard of 93

The Euro just had its best run since early yesterday for the LSV. It joined that south bound train!

Good to see the HRDPS catching on to the south bound train… Still a little snow to go when the run ends for eastern areas.

I think 2016 was also a massive cutoff. MDT had 30, but near Williamsport was close to a shut out if I remember correctly.

Snow on snow, bring it please!

Yes, very nice improvement for the southern tier.

Selinsgrove PA went from 0 at 6z to 10 inches at 18z …

Yes, but Significant shift south from 6z to 18z Icon. 6z top 18z bottom

CTP freshened up the Watch & bumped amounts up again. I liked that they mentioned the 2 to 4 hour heavy snow potential Tuesday am.

Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 249 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2024 PAZ025>028-034-056-057-059-121000- /O.CON.KCTP.WS.A.0003.240213T0400Z-240213T1800Z/ Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon- Including the cities of Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Bedford, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, and Lebanon 249 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of south-central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain will develop Monday evening and turn to snow overnight into early Tuesday morning. Snow will continue through the early afternoon hours. A two-to-four hour period of heavy snow is possible around daybreak Tuesday when snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour could occur.

3k NAM best run yet, but not nearly as generous as the 12k. I wouldn’t complain about the 5 it shows around Harrisburg.

Lol, I’d be happy with half of this!

Serious & thoroughly satisfying NAMing!

These are the 12z ensemble snow maps for day 5 through 15. These do NOT include the current early week storm. This is a great general signal for active pattern with chances in this day 5 through 15 period.

Beautiful!

Exactly, I feel we will be busy in here through mid March.

The 12z EPS joined the other 12z ensembles & also has higher snow amounts for the LSV with now getting the 4 inch line to Harrisburg. This is is best EPS run since early yesterday.

The Euro looks close to me to having a bit more snow in the LSV with the 540 line crashing with heavier precip still overhead & the low position offshore as of 12z Tuesday. The short range higher res models should help to resolve this area closer to storm time.

12z Euro slight improvement for the LSV over its last couple of runs, but still has less than latest GFS & Canadian in the LSV. The rest of CTP further north & west of Harrisburg still do well this run.

From CTP… ”A deepening low pressure system lifting out of the Gulf Coast will track across Delaware and the southern tip of New Jersey Monday night into early Tuesday bringing a Moderate to heavy snowfall across much of Central and Northern PA, while a longer period of rain for the first half of the storm leads to a slushy coating to few inches across the region east of Interstate 83 and south of the PA Turnpike.”

12z GEFS & 12z GEPS both brought the snow line further south than their previous run. Both now get 4.7 to Harrisburg by Tuesday evening.

12z Canadian similar low position as the GFS.

Despite being told it’s over last night & that me & apparently CTP were wishcasting….. The 12z GFS had Warning snow for the Harrisburg area on to the north.

CTP refreshed the Watch overnight but did mention at the end that they may cancel the Watch if amounts continue to drop in southern PA.

Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 338 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2024 PAZ025>028-034-056-057-059-112045- /O.CON.KCTP.WS.A.0003.240213T0400Z-240213T1800Z/ Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon- Including the cities of Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Bedford, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, and Lebanon 338 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain will turn to snow through the night Monday night and early Tuesday. The storm track is now expected to be slightly farther north. This should allow the precipitation to stay rain for longer during the storm. Thus, snowfall totals are expected to be less than earlier forecasts for southern PA. The watch may be cancelled if the expected snow amounts continue to drop.

6z EPS & 6z GEFS still keep the LSV in the game for Advisory snow & still have Warning snow for the northern half of CTP.