Blizzard of 93

December 8th is looking rather interesting on the 0z Canadian & GFS. The Canadian slides off to our south, but the GFS is a moderate hit this run.

Here are CTP’s comments on the midweek Clipper potential. By the middle of the week, flow once again becomes more southwesterly ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Ensembles seem to be coming into agreement that this low will track over the Great Lakes and will bring light snowfall to most of Central PA Wednesday into Thursday. Cyclonic flow remains overhead through the end of the week and will support continued upslope snow showers over the western mountains and lake effect snow over the northwest. Temperatures will remain well below normal through the extended period with highs generally in the 20s and 30s and lows in the teens and 20s.

I also like still seeing a juiced up system on 18z GFS on the 11th & 12th, even though it didn’t work out for us this run. With the advertised pattern that should be in place, I like our chances of the surface working out in our favor.

I don’t mind seeing the wave on the night of the 7th getting juiced up, but sliding just under us at this range.

Plenty of cold available in week 2 as well on all 3 ensembles.

12z ensembles continue to have a workable look for week 2.

Clippers next week while we watch to see if something more significant develops around the 10th or so.

They should be able to make plenty of snow this week if they want it.

Some light flurries in Marysville recently.

6z GEFS gets the 2” snow line all the way down to Fredericksburg by day 16. The trend is our friend.

The 6z GFS then has a larger storm chance on the 11th the gets the southern stream involved. It looks like a Miller B set up with a low then developing on the North Carolina coast. It’s a snow to mix event for many of us this run. Lots of tracking in our near future.

The 6z GFS serves up Clippers on the night of 4th & 7th.

I’m enjoying the Turkey Day activities, but I’m loving these model run comments!

Week 2 temps on the ensembles support plenty of cold in the east.

Week 2 temps on the ensembles support plenty of cold in the east.

The good pattern look for week 2 continues on the three global ensembles.

The good pattern look for week 2 continues on the three global ensembles.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone l I am thankful for this weather community that I have now been a part of for 10 years! I hope that you all enjoy the day with family & friends while feasting!

.58 of benefiical rain this morning. I’m thankful that I have not yet seen a drought monitor map this week!

Awesome! So, it did snow in CTP on Thanksgiving…looks like some of the maps DID indeed verify…

The 18z GEFS has brief transient ridging in the east on day 12/13, but then quickly evolves back into a more favorable look by day 15. Temperatures at day 15 are below normal as well.

The 12z ensembles each end with below normal temps at the 360 hr. time stamp.

The 3 main global ensembles at 12z still maintain a favorable look in the day 10 to 15 period.

Patience…maybe we enjoy a dusting to an inch or 2 with a couple of Clippers while we track storms with more upside the following week. Step 1 is getting the cold entrenched this weekend.