Blizzard of 93

I’m just rooting for team North America from the 12z runs today that I posted earlier.

You mentioned the JMA & yes it is wide right at 12z for next weekend.

The 12z EPS still has a storm signal along the east coast next weekend.

The Euro is no go for next weekend’s winter storm chance, but the 12z GFS & Canadian say that we are very much in the game for a coastal storm. It will all come down to how nicely the northern stream & southern stream end up working together or against each other. We still have 6 days to try to figure it out.

Thanks man ! I just really enjoy tracking winter storms & this place has a great group ! Hopefully next weekend we are all shoveling, but lots of time to see how things unfold for the better or worse.

The 18z GFS shows a deepening low riding up the east coast next weekend. It strengthens from the 990s in the Carolinas to the 970’s by the time it reaches our latitude & then into the 960’s off of the New England coast. Verbatim, this run, the snow stays near I-81, but it would take only a small adjustment to get even our eastern locales into the good snow. I would take my chances with this run.

The 12z Euro has a deepening coastal storm that develops in the southeast & rides up the coast as it strengthens. To me, the precip shield looks underdone with a storm that deepens from 996 off of the NC coast to 987 near Norfolk then down to 971 off of the NJ coast. I would take my chances with this look for back here in the Susquehanna Valley. We are still 1 week out & the track & strength will of course vary with each model run. I am getting more confident that the models are leaning towards the idea of a coastal storm instead of a cutter or suppressed storm.

Coastal storms usually bring good precip, so we should be good. There is no torch this week, just slightly above average for late January can get it done here.

Exactly, tracking a legit threat is part of the fun of this hobby. We are in the game. If we get a good tracking coastal this time of year, we have a chance here in the interior.

Exactly, this feels like the old times, with the GFS out to sea. Much better than showing a cutter !

It just has to be cold enough, & southern Canada looks plenty cold. A decent coastal will work just fine this time of year.

That’s a nice start to the 12z models today!

Yes, This is what I’m getting at. Southeast modeled snow usually corrects to the north. Much better than seeing Midwest snow & hoping it corrects south or east, which rarely happens. This time, the possible solutions are different. We haven’t seen looks this year with suppression even being a possibility.

We just need a decent storm track that goes under us to our east while the low is strengthening. We are still in peak climo for winter temps. The I-95 crowd might struggle unless they get a perfect track. Back here in the interior, we stand a better chance with a slightly less than ideal track. I would be fine with a run 3-6 or 4-8 inch type of snowstorm. The chance of a magical 1-2 feet historic snow storm is always remote. I do like the change this time that suppression is on the table. That gives us a wide range of potential, & supports the idea of a storm possibly going under us. We will see what 12z has to say in the game of weather model roulette.

The models are now playing the back & forth game for next weekend. The GFS went from Apps runner to suppressed southern slider. The Euro went from near perfect track major snowstorm yesterday to a suppressed southern slider overnight. All solutions are on the table for a few more days. We have played this game many times over the years. Hopefully this time we end up winning a winter storm this time !

These pictures of snow in the mountains & up in northern PA this morning show that we could have been close to a good storm if the track ended up near some of the earlier in the week modeled ideas. Even with a bad track, it was just cold enough to get some places enough snow to cause problems this morning.

@canderson , should we all secure our trash cans yet again ?

It looks like we are back in business for next weekend ! & just for the record I was born in 1977, so I was 15 when the Blizzard of 93 hit !

We should have plenty to track over the next few weeks. It looks like we might be back in the game by the end of next week. If we keep taking swings, we will eventually hit one. Then maybe we will keep hitting until the end of March ?

Yes, that was a classic! It was 1 Euro run a couple of days before the storm that gave us “only” 10- 15 inches of snow instead of 2 feet plus, & he cancelled the storm! Those NAM runs were epic! I remember saying to people that I’d never seen amounts like that show up on a weather model for my backyard on the day of a storm, & then it verified!

I agree with you, all that we can ask for are chances for snow. I would almost rather have this with chances at moisture laden storms that might or might not give us snow, instead of weeks of extreme cold with dry frigid temps with occasional snow showers & Clippers. The next 2 weeks should present a few opportunities. I like the general concept late next week of 2 storms quickly following each other. If the first system doesn’t produce snow, then at least it can set the boundary for the next storm that could possibly come up the coast 2 days later.

Great discussion in here earlier today about snow totals over the decades. Here is a good chart from CTP that shows the snow totals since 1980 at Harrisburg, along with the average & median at the far right part of the chart.

Well, this weekend’s storm took a turn for the worse over the last day or 2.... But, it looks like we might have another chance Next weekend. One of these chances should work out if we keep getting opportunities.

Yes, it’s going to be tough for York & Lancaster to get back in this one. But I think anyone along I -81 give or take a few miles & points west should still pay attention for now. I agree that the bullseye appears to be the mountains, but I would settle here for the scraps of a possible few inches of snow along I -81, just like last nights 0z GFS.

Great forecast discussion by CTP this morning. If you are near I -81 or north & west of that, you are still in the game. Here is CTP’s Discussion: .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Focus in the long term remains on the increasing likelihood of a highly elevation dependent snow event impacting the region beginning Friday night and continuing through much of Sat night as a Miller-B type surface scenario accompanies a well defined upper low that will develop across the Mid Miss valley and track east across Southern or Central PA Sat night. The 700 mb center is progged to move east along I-80 in Ohio and PA. After a mainly cloudy and rather mild Friday with temps in the upper 30s to around 40F, the boundary layer is expected to start out warm enough for primarily rain right at the onset in most areas. However, layer cooling associated with increasing uvvel, and evap cooling as the precip falls into the dry LLVl air will help to mix or change the precip over to wet snow across parts of Central and likely most or all of Ncent PA. Height falls and 1000-500 mb thicknesses falling to below 540 DAM will allow the precip to change over to snow, that will fall at a moderate to heavy rate at times late Friday night and Saturday. Of particular interest will be later Saturday morning into Sat afternoon when elevated instability being transported north toward South-central PA and areas of fairly strong 850-700 mb frontogenesis could lead to some 1-2 inch per hour, heavy snowfall rates anywhere northwest of the I-81 corridor. Critical thickness and 850 mb zero wet bulb line will exist somewhere between I-99 and I-81 during the mid to late morning hours Saturday, and this is where the greatest uncertainty is with respect to precip type and intensity. Again, we`re messaging the point that the initially warm boundary layer and periods of strong, dynamic forcing will lead to a very elevation dependent snowfall across Central and Northern PA with notably lower chances for significant snow near and to the SE of I-81. Snow accums by late Sat night could approach 8 inches at elevations over 2000 ft MSL in northern PA with 4-6 inches possible at the same elevations in Central PA. Accums in the valleys (depending on their exact elevation) will vary from 3-5 inches in the north to between 1-3 inches in most of Central PA. The threat for any sleet and/or FZRA is very minimal at this point. Increased pops for Friday night into Sat as a result of the anomalous southeasterly low level jet (over 50 kts at 850 mb) and plume of Atlantic moisture overrunning a dome of cold/stable air east of the Appalachians. This justifies categorical POPs Friday night into Saturday. The latest GEFS mean qpf ranges from 0.6 to 1 inch across the forecast area by Saturday evening.