Blizzard of 93

I think their local forecast for Harrisburg called for some trees down on Front St.

I’m really confused by this post... @psuhoffman is probably the best poster on this entire website. His posting style is one that should be modeled by others.

Thank goodness that you, Bob, Show Me & a few others discuss the possibilities of the way the pattern could evolve! Even in a decent winter, there is a usually a lot of down time between events and periods of opportunity. The “next” & “winter’s over” crowd gets old every year. Good posters like you put a lot of time into your thoughts and analysis. It gets really frustrating when some posters occasionally trash good posts based on nothing and then claim that they were right about a fail. I am already reading your thoughts about next winter in your thread and look forward to your analysis of the possibilities.

MDT recorded .06 overnight. We finally got a rain shower overnight here that was enough to give the lawn & garden a little drink.

I would love if we could get a little more in depth and technical info on this board like some of the better posters do in Mid Atlantic board. @pasnownut strays there in Winter and occasionally posts there because he also has a hunger for more quality information. I lurk in their Winter long range thread all of the time to see their thoughts and analysis, especially @Bob Chill , @psuhoffman , @CAPE the guy from Hanover(for some reason I cannot remember his handle now) and some others. I think it’s important to look at all of the possibilities and also give a little reasoning behind the thoughts that are posted. It is also lots of fun to post about “trees down on Front St. in Harrisburg” or “Tamaqua got fringed again”. Sometimes it is fun to post some long range snow maps to boost morale, but mostly that is just for entertainment and should not be taken as an actual forecast! Thank goodness we have @MAG5035 He is one of the best posters on this entire website! Hopefully we get good pattern discussions going in here and share some good quality info this season while having lots of fun along the way!

Thanks for posting your early thoughts on this coming Winter. I agree that we should try to forget about last Winter. If the weak La Niña comes to fruition, it will be important to score some snow in December. Also, I wouldn’t mind a pattern of northern branch systems this Winter. Anything is better than watching every storm track west of PA with no blocking. I think many of us would be fine if we could nickel & dime our way to climo average this year with several 2 to 4 inch snow events. Of course, it would be much better if we could mix in just 1 double digit snowstorm sometime this season!

Tamaqua will be the place to be this Winter!

Lol, You would be out of business quickly as a weather forecaster if you only used the NAM !

Before you know it, you will be in the same drought boat as our Franklin & Adams County friends!

Lol, I thought that your historic drought made your grass toast this year for good!

The models were all dreadful this past winter, even the almighty Euro had a bad year. So many times this past Winter a storm looked somewhat promising even 5 days out, but then fell apart a day or two later. Nothing broke favorably for us when we got to the critical 3 day juncture!

Whenever I post a snow map of the NAM or another model in the winter, it doesn’t necessarily mean that I believe what it is showing. The models that I post, which are NOT ALL snow maps, are merely a depiction of what a particular model run is showing. No model run should be taken as gospel truth. I like to show the model output to get all of the possibilities on the table. Then, we can evaluate based on storm track, telleconnections, trends, and several other factors. Also, so many posters comment on model runs, but do not post maps. They just say “it’s a good or bad run” or it went “north or south”, with ZERO context or quality content. A good run for my yard might not be good for yours, so I take the time to post maps so people can see how things stand for their location.

The NAM this past winter was worthless. We would have had a normal snow season if the NAM was consistently right inside of 24 hours.

The 18z NAM & 12z Euro have very little precip this weekend for CTP.

I agree, much better than a few days ago!

Remember the storm around Valentine’s Day 2014 that gave us around 10 inches of snow? The GFS had no clue until most of us already had a few inches of snow on the ground!

Here is my top 5 : 1. Blizzard of 1993 - (Surprised?) 2 feet of snow in the Harrisburg area, crazy wind, drifting, historic national impact. 2. January of 2016 - #1 snowstorm total of all time of 30 inches at Harrisburg. That might be a record amount that stands for decades. 3. February of 2003- Long duration of snow that began on Sunday morning with temperatures in the single digits and continued until Monday afternoon, delivering around 2 feet to Harrisburg. 4. January of 1996-Great historic region wide snowstorm. This storm began one of the greatest weeks of Winter weather ever in Harrisburg. 2 Feet of snow from the blizzard, 2 or 3 inches from a Clipper a couple of days later, then another coastal storm that dropped around 10 more inches of snow at the end of that week. 5. February 5th 2010- The first of the 2 back to back great snowstorms that hit that week. This first storm delivered 18 inches of snow to Harrisburg. The next best part was digging out from that storm while tracking another great snowstorm that was going to arrive just 5 days later!

Watching that radar loop of the January of 16 #1 snow of all time at MDT brought a tear to my eye!

You never want to be in the bullseye this far out!

For me, it can’t end soon enough. The heat really started to bother me this weekend. I had thought that I was more than used to it by now after the historic July that we just experienced. For some reason, I could not bear to be outside for more than a few minutes at a time this weekend.

Let’s hope the Euro is right. I am so done with the heat this Summer!

I wish that we could get even half of that precip in a week during Winter and convert it into snow. That would be a week to remember!

Last evening was very pleasant with cooler temperatures & a slight breeze. We took a family walk with our new puppy and there was a slight chill in the air. The sunset is happening noticeably earlier. Good signs that Fall is not too far away!

Yes, same here in Marysville. Things escalated quickly with those rain showers this evening. Happy Birthday!

I can’t wait! 25 days to go until Met. Fall begins!