Blizzard of 93

This is false! Outside of last year, we have been on a great run of above average seasonal snow totals at MDT going back to 2014.

That’s a beautiful state park! I started going there as a kid with my grandparents back in the 80’s and 90’s. I’ve also taken my family there a couple of times over the last few years.

This morning is absolutely glorious! Good temps, no humidity & a refreshing breeze! Enjoy!

Another heavy thundershower is moving through Marysville now. It looks like @sauss06, @CarlislePaWx @canderson should get some rain out of this round as well. This might just push my yard over the 2” mark over the last 2 days.

I hope we make up that deficit in late November & December in the form of precip that we can shovel & plow!

I hope that you get well soon!

Congrats! Which winter storm is this photo from?

We have less than 3 days to go until Met. Fall begins!

Marysville is well on its way to the 2” jackpot! We had a heavy thunderstorm yesterday afternoon. Then we had a good heavy shower in the early morning. It looks like more is in the way later on. According to my calculations, we would already have a foot of snow on the ground. However, I would be worried about mixing or changing to rain to cost me my second foot of snow!

He is one of the best with LSV weather. I would always learn something whenever he did local forecasts on WGAL. Hopefully he will continue to talk weather on twitter.

I would like for the drought to break around December the 5th. The pattern that would break the drought would feature a series of 3 moisture laden storms originating in the Gulf of Mexico. The Miller A storm track would be from New Orleans to 50 miles east of Ocean City. Meanwhile, a -NAO would help to anchor in a wall of Arctic Highs from Hudson Bay to southern Quebec. We would be buried in snow by Christmas and break the drought at the same time! We would also then remember this period the same way as February of 2010! I think it’s time for me to wake up from my drought breaking Winter dream....!

Hopefully we can keep the MJO in phase 1 and 2 this winter!

Absolutely, beautiful morning & evening. There was a slight chill in the air near sunset.

I think their local forecast for Harrisburg called for some trees down on Front St.

I’m really confused by this post... @psuhoffman is probably the best poster on this entire website. His posting style is one that should be modeled by others.

Thank goodness that you, Bob, Show Me & a few others discuss the possibilities of the way the pattern could evolve! Even in a decent winter, there is a usually a lot of down time between events and periods of opportunity. The “next” & “winter’s over” crowd gets old every year. Good posters like you put a lot of time into your thoughts and analysis. It gets really frustrating when some posters occasionally trash good posts based on nothing and then claim that they were right about a fail. I am already reading your thoughts about next winter in your thread and look forward to your analysis of the possibilities.

MDT recorded .06 overnight. We finally got a rain shower overnight here that was enough to give the lawn & garden a little drink.

I would love if we could get a little more in depth and technical info on this board like some of the better posters do in Mid Atlantic board. @pasnownut strays there in Winter and occasionally posts there because he also has a hunger for more quality information. I lurk in their Winter long range thread all of the time to see their thoughts and analysis, especially @Bob Chill , @psuhoffman , @CAPE the guy from Hanover(for some reason I cannot remember his handle now) and some others. I think it’s important to look at all of the possibilities and also give a little reasoning behind the thoughts that are posted. It is also lots of fun to post about “trees down on Front St. in Harrisburg” or “Tamaqua got fringed again”. Sometimes it is fun to post some long range snow maps to boost morale, but mostly that is just for entertainment and should not be taken as an actual forecast! Thank goodness we have @MAG5035 He is one of the best posters on this entire website! Hopefully we get good pattern discussions going in here and share some good quality info this season while having lots of fun along the way!

Thanks for posting your early thoughts on this coming Winter. I agree that we should try to forget about last Winter. If the weak La Niña comes to fruition, it will be important to score some snow in December. Also, I wouldn’t mind a pattern of northern branch systems this Winter. Anything is better than watching every storm track west of PA with no blocking. I think many of us would be fine if we could nickel & dime our way to climo average this year with several 2 to 4 inch snow events. Of course, it would be much better if we could mix in just 1 double digit snowstorm sometime this season!

Tamaqua will be the place to be this Winter!

Lol, You would be out of business quickly as a weather forecaster if you only used the NAM !

Before you know it, you will be in the same drought boat as our Franklin & Adams County friends!

Lol, I thought that your historic drought made your grass toast this year for good!

The models were all dreadful this past winter, even the almighty Euro had a bad year. So many times this past Winter a storm looked somewhat promising even 5 days out, but then fell apart a day or two later. Nothing broke favorably for us when we got to the critical 3 day juncture!

Whenever I post a snow map of the NAM or another model in the winter, it doesn’t necessarily mean that I believe what it is showing. The models that I post, which are NOT ALL snow maps, are merely a depiction of what a particular model run is showing. No model run should be taken as gospel truth. I like to show the model output to get all of the possibilities on the table. Then, we can evaluate based on storm track, telleconnections, trends, and several other factors. Also, so many posters comment on model runs, but do not post maps. They just say “it’s a good or bad run” or it went “north or south”, with ZERO context or quality content. A good run for my yard might not be good for yours, so I take the time to post maps so people can see how things stand for their location.