Blizzard of 93

The 18z EPS snow map is still impressive. About 1 inch of this is from Monday and the rest is all from the main event!

The 18z EPS low track is slightly further east with several individual ensemble member tracks that are ideal for all of CTP.

Here is the Horst tweet that you mentioned. “expect a bullseye of 16" to fall somewhere in Central PA (too early to pick the spot). Rain/snow line near Philly. Snow/mix line near York/Lanc...w/ all snow N&W of Harrisburg.”

Here is a another view of the 18z GEFS. CTP is in a great spot!

We know exactly where that 16” of snow will verify.... @Cashtown_Coop !

If we even just exceed 6 inches of snow with this storm we will have beat all of last season as of December 17th in the LSV!

Here is the Kuchera ratio map for both events this week from the 18z GFS.

The 18z GFS looks awesome for most of CTP! The I-83 to Rt.15 corridor over the entire length of PA and the entire I-81 corridor look to be in the heart of the storm this run. This run does show some mixing in Lancaster & York, but they look to score substantial snow as well this run.

The 18z GFS still likes the idea of a couple inches of snow for some of us on Monday.

So, you are saying that the I-81 corridor jackpots! I won’t have a problem with that!

The 12z EPS also crushed CTP!

Yes, welcome back! This week should be great tracking!

Crushed!

@psuhoffman What are your thoughts on the round 1 Monday event for southern PA to northern MD ?

Yes! Great to see you stopping by here. I read your thoughts in the other thread, but please keep us posted here as we embark on this potentially great week of winter!

Here is the 12z GFS combination of the 2 events as of Thursday. Amazing!

Here is the map that most us want to see! This is just for the Wednesday/Thursday event, not counting Monday.

Here is the12z GFS regional look for Wednesday night....Wow!

Here is the 6z EPS for the Monday appetizer to small plate event. It gets snow further north into CTP than the Op runs.

Here are the 2 NAMs from the 12z run. The answer probably will end up in the middle of these 2 solutions.

What are your thoughts on how the 2 storms play out this week? P.S. I love being able to just ask this question after what we endured last season!

They always say that you need to smell the rain to get the best snow!

Thanks man! I was just joking around. Some of us remember in January 2016 when you canceled the storm after 1 off Euro run!

If we have 1 off run I’m sure that our friends @Eskimo Joe & @canderson will cancel the storm!

The Monday storm still needs to be figured out. Will it be a tiny appetizer or a small plate? Here are CTP’s thoughts this morning on the Monday event: “The models are not in total agreement with the northward extent and QPF amounts, even though timing is similar. Neither of the solutions is generally preferred, and the spread is also good info. For now, we have bumped up the PoPs across the S to categorical (>80%) and mentioned 1-2" of snow in the southern half of the area. There are motions by the 00Z European and 06Z GFS representatives to push the heavier precip farther to the north. The 06Z NAM takes the QPF to another level and would make a significant snowfall event if it were to come to fruition. The arguments against the heavier QPF are two-fold: The fast W-E storm speed, and the Wrly/NWrly flow throughout the event which could bring in drier air and cut down both the northward extent of the precip and the QPF amounts.”