Blizzard of 93

The 18z NAM got a little closer to threading the needle for some CTP snow. We need the perfect track and also need the low to strengthen at the right spot to get any snow out of this. Rates and Elevation would then help the cause as well. I would sign up for this solution right now. Let’s see what the 0z runs show tonight.

MDT recorded another Trace of snow this morning. That is now the second “T” that MDT has recorded this season.

There must have been a decent snow shower overnight in Marysville because I woke up this morning to my first car topper of snow this season!

Congrats! Thanks for starting the Winter thread. What are your thoughts on the chances for the potential storm this weekend?

Yes! Winter is here !!!

@pasnownut what do you think of our winter storm chances during the first half of December?

Yes, this weekend’s storm can’t be totally ruled out for CTP. The 18z EPS mean puts us in the ballgame & the Control run actually gets the job done for CTP snow this weekend. We would need a perfect track with an intensifying low that puts dynamics in play to get us cold enough to snow when the precip rates are good. It will interesting to track this one over the next few days. If this doesn’t hit, at least we are at the beginning of our window of opportunity over the next 2 weeks.

Congrats! I had on & off flurries today here in Marysville. Happy Met. Winter everyone !!!

The 0z Euro Op run looked interesting for a couple of snow chances next week. First, it shows a Clipper that brings light snow to us on Monday into Tuesday. Then it has a coastal storm for the end of next week. Fun tracking times are ahead!

The ensembles are improving their snow look for the Second week of December. The amounts have slowly been improving the last few runs. The overall look of the pattern looks good for chances. That’s all that we can ask for...it’s good to just be in the game instead of facing a shutout pattern. Hopefully we are tracking a specific threat in the not too distant future.

You inspired me today to do my first “snow mow”! I don’t like when blades of grass show through the snow, so this should help! Now, it’s just a matter of getting some snow on the ground.

Nice! You know that we are getting close to game time when Horst quotes start showing up on here!

Yes, patience is the key. The upcoming pattern should present chances starting next week. The telleconnections look to be lining up favorably for a good pattern in the east. Maybe this storm in 2 weeks will be the first widespread winter storm for our region? Here is the 0z GFS for December 13th.

The average high temperature for yesterday is still 48 at Harrisburg. The high yesterday of 57 was 9 degrees above normal. The record high for the date yesterday was 71 set way back in 1896 ! Don’t worry, the pattern change starts later this week. We should see at least near average temperatures this week after the rain storm passes on Tuesday. Below normal temps should arrive the following week. Yes, that should mean winter weather opportunities as we begin the second week of December!

The 18z GEFS brought the 3 inch snow line down to Harrisburg. About half of the individual ensemble members look at least decent for CTP. The upcoming pattern over the next 2 weeks should give us chances to get on the board.

The storm early next week is snow for parts of Ohio and Indiana. Our time to track snow for central PA should arrive after that early week storm passes. We should at least have some chances to track.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! I am thankful that I will get to track Winter Storms with all of you soon! Here is the Euro from last night for the sacred date of December the 5th. The storm is right where we want it 9 days out...

The upcoming pattern to start December looks to be full of potential for Winter storm chances. The positive PNA could pay off with this southern storm track that is advertised on the GEFS & EPS from December 4th to the 9th. This pattern has been showing on the ensembles consistently over the last few days. If this look holds, there should be some fun Op model runs showing up soon. There is a chance that we could be actively tracking out first legit winter storm threat by the end of the first week of December.

That week in 96 and that winter were epic for so many reasons.

There should be a winter storm window in the first half of December with the PNA forecasted going positive on most model guidance.

@MAG5035 What are your thoughts on the upcoming pattern as we roll into December?

As we head towards the end of the month, the PNA looks to go positive, which would put the trough in the east. The pattern looks to get active which could present us with winter storm opportunities. The 6z GFS showed one of those opportunities during the first week of December. Let’s just try to move this storm 50 to 75 miles to the east to get all of us in the jackpot zone!

Also, MDT recorded its first Trace of snow yesterday! We are officially on the board with a “T”. You need to start somewhere!

It sure felt like early Winter cold out there today. The high temp at MDT was only 42, which is 10 below normal for the date.

No, that fantasy storm looks like a widespread front end CTP 3 to 6 inch special ending as a mix. The 1036 High over PA just needs to hold in place a little longer to deliver 6 + of snow to all of us! Let’s lock it in! Ok, back to reality...It’s great to see Op runs taking us into early December!