Blizzard of 93

I’m going with a combo of the DT forecast with the RGEM. 2 inches of snow for MDT!

@CarlislePaWx & @MAG5035 The 6z GFS also has the February 5th/6th snowstorm chance.

The 0z GFS run was beautiful. If that comes close verifying, many of us would be near or over climo average snow for the season by February 11th.

Great work Sir! I was actually going to post some of these maps this morning to try to give us something good to look forward to next week. Good to see our next chance not too far out.

Need to see more models move this way at 12z. The 6z GFS , 6z NAM & 0z Euro do not have snow as far west at the RGEM.

The 6z RGEM has Advisory snow for most of the LSV. Warning level snow gets to eastern Lancaster & Berks counties.

Here are CTP’s forecast discussion thoughts tonight. Shortwave energy dropping out of the Great Lakes Friday morning will attempt to phase with southern stream energy moving through the Southern Plains into the Deep South Friday afternoon/night. 500mb height falls combined with increased moisture/lift should yield a bit of light snow or flurries across most of CPA Friday evening into early Friday night. Model QPFs and associated snowfall pivot and shift south and east into Saturday morning as the coastal storm intensifies and lifts north off the Mid Atlantic coast. Areas along/south of the PA Turnpike and I-81 corridor will see the highest probs for accumulating snow Friday night into Saturday morning with the main axis of wintry precip shifting toward the I95 corridor. Storm total snowfall ending 00Z Sunday shows a tight gradient along I95 trending lower farther to the west. The south/east parts of York and Lancaster County are forecast to receive the heaviest snow at this time with amounts in the 1-3/2-4" range.

Let’s see what the next 24 hours bring. Plenty of time to throw in the towel if needed. Again, I’m just hoping to squeeze out an Advisory level event for the LSV.

Desperate times call for desperate measures!

Here are the snow maps from the 12z & 18z EPS showing the improvement at 18z.

The 18z EPS moved slightly back to the west and gets MDT to 2 inches of snow and Lancaster over 3. Still several ensemble members are west of the mean low position.

It really would not take much to get the LSV back into a solid Advisory level storm. A few tweaks here & there with the phasing and timing of the pieces and this could have been a blockbuster storm even around here. But, as others have said, some form of blocking would have helped the overall chances for much more in our region. Plenty of time to fully throw in the towel tomorrow night or Friday am if needed.

I’m just hoping at this point that we get back the 2 to 4 inches of snow from the northern stream low along the Arctic front on Friday that most models had for us earlier in the week.

Not sure why everyone is so down…lol… According to JB, we still have the JMA on our side… Maybe for the second time ever the JMA will be right?

Here is the 6z Euro snow

The 6z Euro still gives hope to the LSV. On to 12z

The 0z EPS still gives hope of a more westward track for the coastal with a decent cluster of lows to be he west of the mean low position.

This is a fantastic discussion, but the part that I just quoted is what should keep us very much in the game.

Lol, that is beautiful.

Yes, very nice NAM run! More room to improve surface in time if that 500 look holds.

Here is the Euro Control precip & snow at 10-1.

Here is a frame from the height of the Euro showing the deform wrap around.

The 18z Euro Control run is impressive. It’s not far from delivering a major storm to the LSV. As it is, it still delivers low end Warning level snow to the LSV at 10-1 ratios. It has the low pressure at 964 at our latitude off of the coast of NJ. With this much deepening, I would think the deform band would expand even further west than depicted on this run. So much potential, we just need a little bump west….

Here is the 18z EPS snow map, which is similar to the 12z EPS.

The 18z EPS says the the LSV is still in the game. Several ensemble members are taking the inner track more towards the coast and to the west of the mean. If that western cluster of lows ends up winning out as the final track, then we are in business back here. Some of these ensemble members have 960’s lows south of our latitude! This is far from over…