Blizzard of 93

Here is the trend on the Canadian from 12z yesterday to 12z today. Check out difference in the low position. The trend could be our friend this time for more wintry outcome.

Yes, Thursday pm into Friday has been trending towards a better cold press with a solid wave running along the slowly moving front. The 12z Canadian & GFS are slowly trending southeast with the cold press and the 12z Euro showed how CTP can win in this set up. Let’s see how this trends over the next couple of days.

The 6z GEFS has temps below normal for the first half of February with a few Winter storm chances. Once we get past our quick few day warm up this week, we should be back in the Winter storm chance business. Here are GEFS temps for week 1 and 2 and then the 10 day snow from day 5 to 15.

Where is @canderson with a Harrisburg wind report?

Absolutely brutal wind… Temp 15 Wind chill is 6

Steady light snow continues in Marysville continues at a moderate rate. Temp 28 Eye balling about .5 of an inch of new snow so far.

Decent area of light snow seems to be filling in to the west of Harrisburg through the LSV.

Light snow is picking up intensity in Marysville.

Light snow rate is picking up in Marysville with current temp of 25.

Unbelievable what a difference over just 100-150 miles!

I’m going to post this again for some posters that don’t bother to go back a page….

Yes, it is getting more interesting. Advisories & warnings might be needed for some LSV counties if the NAM is right.

Here are the 6z NAM snow maps in Kuchera for the 3k & 12k.

The 6z NAM continues to increase snow amounts for the LSV, especially York & Lancaster. Most west of the river is front the front running preliminary system, but south & east of Harrisburg gets into the western edge of the coastal precip this run.

Light snow currently in Marysville. Car tops already have a dusting.

3z HRRR is continuing to juice up the front running snow tomorrow. MDT this run has 1.1 inches of snow by 4 pm tomorrow-this is 10-1 ratio, so Kuchera would be even better. Several more hours of light snow would follow before any possible enhancement from the coastal low.

Yes, it especially upped the ante for Lancaster county this run. Here is 0z & 18z RGEM to compare.

Here is the 0z NAM

Very impressive run for them. Here at home, low end Advisory snow for the LSV is on the table.

Here are CTP’s forecast discussion thoughts this evening: SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Shortwave energy dropping out of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes Friday morning will phase with southern stream energy moving through the Southern Plains into the Deep South Friday afternoon/night. 500mb height falls combined with increased moisture/lift should yield light snow across most of CPA Friday. While some of the hires ensemble guidance was trending bearish in terms of snowfall potential, there is enough support from the global guidance |particularly the 27/12Z ECMWF| to increase POPs by 20-40% over previous fcst based on what we expect to be a very light, but measurable snowfall (0.1-0.5") on Friday into Friday night. Model QPFs and associated snowfall pivot and shift south and east into Saturday morning as the coastal storm intensifies and lifts north off the Mid Atlantic coast. Areas along/south of the PA Turnpike and I-81 corridor will see the highest probs for accumulating snow late Friday night through Saturday morning with the main axis of snow shifting toward the I95 corridor. Updated storm total snowfall ending 00Z Sunday shows a tight gradient along I95 trending lower farther to the north/west. The latest snowfall fcst has remained consistent in showing 1-2" east of the US-15/I-81 corridor with max amounts around 3" in far southeast Lancaster County.

The Euro keeps ticking slightly west each run today. I want my LSV Advisory snow tomorrow. Here are 6z, 12z and 18z Euro today.

Now casting time! All of the models have struggled more than usual with this event. It’s a very complicated set up, so let’s see how it plays out.

I’m going with a combo of the DT forecast with the RGEM. 2 inches of snow for MDT!

@CarlislePaWx & @MAG5035 The 6z GFS also has the February 5th/6th snowstorm chance.

The 0z GFS run was beautiful. If that comes close verifying, many of us would be near or over climo average snow for the season by February 11th.