Blizzard of 93

Here is the 0z NAM

Very impressive run for them. Here at home, low end Advisory snow for the LSV is on the table.

Here are CTP’s forecast discussion thoughts this evening: SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Shortwave energy dropping out of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes Friday morning will phase with southern stream energy moving through the Southern Plains into the Deep South Friday afternoon/night. 500mb height falls combined with increased moisture/lift should yield light snow across most of CPA Friday. While some of the hires ensemble guidance was trending bearish in terms of snowfall potential, there is enough support from the global guidance |particularly the 27/12Z ECMWF| to increase POPs by 20-40% over previous fcst based on what we expect to be a very light, but measurable snowfall (0.1-0.5") on Friday into Friday night. Model QPFs and associated snowfall pivot and shift south and east into Saturday morning as the coastal storm intensifies and lifts north off the Mid Atlantic coast. Areas along/south of the PA Turnpike and I-81 corridor will see the highest probs for accumulating snow late Friday night through Saturday morning with the main axis of snow shifting toward the I95 corridor. Updated storm total snowfall ending 00Z Sunday shows a tight gradient along I95 trending lower farther to the north/west. The latest snowfall fcst has remained consistent in showing 1-2" east of the US-15/I-81 corridor with max amounts around 3" in far southeast Lancaster County.

The Euro keeps ticking slightly west each run today. I want my LSV Advisory snow tomorrow. Here are 6z, 12z and 18z Euro today.

Now casting time! All of the models have struggled more than usual with this event. It’s a very complicated set up, so let’s see how it plays out.

I’m going with a combo of the DT forecast with the RGEM. 2 inches of snow for MDT!

@CarlislePaWx & @MAG5035 The 6z GFS also has the February 5th/6th snowstorm chance.

The 0z GFS run was beautiful. If that comes close verifying, many of us would be near or over climo average snow for the season by February 11th.

Great work Sir! I was actually going to post some of these maps this morning to try to give us something good to look forward to next week. Good to see our next chance not too far out.

Need to see more models move this way at 12z. The 6z GFS , 6z NAM & 0z Euro do not have snow as far west at the RGEM.

The 6z RGEM has Advisory snow for most of the LSV. Warning level snow gets to eastern Lancaster & Berks counties.

Here are CTP’s forecast discussion thoughts tonight. Shortwave energy dropping out of the Great Lakes Friday morning will attempt to phase with southern stream energy moving through the Southern Plains into the Deep South Friday afternoon/night. 500mb height falls combined with increased moisture/lift should yield a bit of light snow or flurries across most of CPA Friday evening into early Friday night. Model QPFs and associated snowfall pivot and shift south and east into Saturday morning as the coastal storm intensifies and lifts north off the Mid Atlantic coast. Areas along/south of the PA Turnpike and I-81 corridor will see the highest probs for accumulating snow Friday night into Saturday morning with the main axis of wintry precip shifting toward the I95 corridor. Storm total snowfall ending 00Z Sunday shows a tight gradient along I95 trending lower farther to the west. The south/east parts of York and Lancaster County are forecast to receive the heaviest snow at this time with amounts in the 1-3/2-4" range.

Let’s see what the next 24 hours bring. Plenty of time to throw in the towel if needed. Again, I’m just hoping to squeeze out an Advisory level event for the LSV.

Desperate times call for desperate measures!

Here are the snow maps from the 12z & 18z EPS showing the improvement at 18z.

The 18z EPS moved slightly back to the west and gets MDT to 2 inches of snow and Lancaster over 3. Still several ensemble members are west of the mean low position.

It really would not take much to get the LSV back into a solid Advisory level storm. A few tweaks here & there with the phasing and timing of the pieces and this could have been a blockbuster storm even around here. But, as others have said, some form of blocking would have helped the overall chances for much more in our region. Plenty of time to fully throw in the towel tomorrow night or Friday am if needed.

I’m just hoping at this point that we get back the 2 to 4 inches of snow from the northern stream low along the Arctic front on Friday that most models had for us earlier in the week.

Not sure why everyone is so down…lol… According to JB, we still have the JMA on our side… Maybe for the second time ever the JMA will be right?

Here is the 6z Euro snow

The 6z Euro still gives hope to the LSV. On to 12z

The 0z EPS still gives hope of a more westward track for the coastal with a decent cluster of lows to be he west of the mean low position.

This is a fantastic discussion, but the part that I just quoted is what should keep us very much in the game.

Lol, that is beautiful.

Yes, very nice NAM run! More room to improve surface in time if that 500 look holds.