Blizzard of 93

I think that Pillow is a more central location for our group to meet!

lol… don’t look… just post!

Lol…where do you get your info….? Check out the 18z GFS.

Lol…and more lol… The 18z GFS strongly disagrees….

It would have been washed away today anyway! Might as well wait until temps drop towards freezing in the am.

Harrisburg Freezing rain is .34 on the 18z GFS.

18z GFS still brings in the Freezing rain to the Harrisburg area before 7am and keeps it going until early afternoon.

Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 402 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022 PAZ036-056-057-059-063>066-040000- /O.EXB.KCTP.WW.Y.0009.220204T0600Z-220204T1800Z/ Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 402 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total sleet accumulations of less than 1 inch and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 1 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the Friday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain will change to a wintry mix late tonight and continue through Friday morning.

The 3k NAM has a good amount of freezing rain for CTP.

Here is the sleet on the 0z 12k NAM

HRRR is reliable approximately from 6 hours out.

They will change this approximately 20 to 30 times by Friday am.

Every event…don’t worry.. they will put something out & then change it 20 times before the event begins!

Lots of people could be put into danger on the roadways if the word does not get out properly on this ice.

Don’t tell that to @Bubbler86 ! Lol!

Here is the current CTP forecast for Harrisburg. There is no “torch” before this system. Highs in the low 40’s means that temps will not need to fall much to get back below freezing when the front moves through. Weeks of frigid temperatures and snow cover in many areas near Harrisburg will not be eliminated by 2 days of temperatures in the low 40’s. The ground temperatures will freeze again quickly once the front moves in. Wednesday Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 42. Calm wind becoming southeast around 6 mph in the morning. Wednesday Night A chance of rain and snow before midnight, then rain. Low around 34. Southeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Thursday Rain. High near 44. South wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Thursday Night Rain before 4am, then rain and sleet. Low around 28. East wind around 7 mph becoming west in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Friday Sleet, possibly mixed with rain, snow, and freezing rain before 1pm, then a chance of snow. High near 33. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

He is a good Met and he gave a good well written post. This forecast is complicated, so let’s see what the next couple of days bring.

His audience is also mostly Lancaster, so we all need to keep that in mind as well.

I liked Kyle’s post and said nothing to the contrary… I’m not sure why my response was lumped in with the @paweather response to your post?

This sounds exactly like the current forecast for Harrisburg… And for the record, I can’t stand Dallas! Lol!

It only takes a little bit of ice to cause major problems on the roadways.

Exactly, tons of time for a shift of 50 miles. I am hoping for a couple of inches of snow to top off my ice.

Do you think that there are any more trends left in the models over the next 2 days? Could the cold press a bit more & the second wave slow a little to produce more snow towards the LSV as some Euro, Ukie & GFS runs over the last few days have occasionally shown?

18z Euro still has frozen precip for most at 1pm Friday,

18z Euro is looking very icy for Friday am especially from the Harrisburg area on west & north. Hopefully this trends back into more sleet & snow over the next 2 days near the LSV. Freezing rain is the worst. Here are the 7am Friday temps & surface map with precip type.