Blizzard of 93

The 0z GFS brings more sleet than prior recent runs between the turnpike & I-80 followed by a prolonged period of freezing rain. Temps don’t rise to above freezing until around 10am Friday according to this run.

The 0z RGEM ends with Harrisburg at 28 degrees at 7am on Friday with sleet changing over to freezing rain. Heavy amounts of sleet get put down this run between the turnpike & I-80.

The 18z Euro is still icy for all of CTP. Here is the ice and surface temps at 12z Friday which is the end of the run.

I agree, I like where the Sunday system is sitting at this time. With the Thursday/Friday storm, we were once on the southern edge of the snow bullseye, and now it looks like congrats to I-90 to Massachusetts. For the Sunday chance, we are on the northern & western fringe currently with 6 days to go. Let’s reel this Sunday chance in!

Thanks! I need 2 Winter Storms this week… Let’s get it done!

Hi!

I was just making a joke. There was a lot of GFS worship & Euro trashing recently-not by you but by others on here and other regional threads on here. My joking comment was in reference to the Euro seeming to have this event nailed down well before the GFS. Every comment & response is not picking an argument!

Here are CTP’s thoughts this morning. The main focus for late week remains on a much more significant area of low pressure lifting north from the Gulf Coast. The bulk of latest guidance tracks the primary low into western Pa with secondary coastal development and a blocking high over northern New England. This scenario favors a wintry mix for much of central Pa late Thursday into early Friday. Plenty of GOMEX moisture accompanying this system should result in a fairly significant precipitation event, with latest ensemble plumes indicating 0.5 to 1 inch of precip most likely. Latest model thermal profiles currently support snow to mixed precip over the north and mixed precip to rain in the south.

But many were saying that the GFS was the new king…

Every model disagrees with this…

@MAG5035 What are your current thoughts for the Thursday/Friday event in CTP?

The 18z GFS has mostly sleet & freezing rain for the southern half of PA. This would be ugly if this played out.

This is a different situation than the last event. We have cold air in place as the precip arrives this time. Also, we are 4 days out, lots of times to see how this plays out.

The snow map is only for the next Sunday snow chance on the 12z Euro.

Here are some more photos of the 12z Euro for the next Sunday snow chance.

I won’t mind Friday if it ends up as a mostly icy mix as long as we are tracking a Moderate snowstorm for next Sunday as the 12z Euro shows for us.

Here is the 12z Euro freezing rain for Friday.

The 12z Euro has a significant ice event for most of us from around the PA turnpike on north.

We had a Warning event in early January when MDT got over 5 inches of snow. CTP upgraded us to a Warning in the middle of the event.

Here are CTP’s thoughts this morning for the late week Winter storm. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A brief period of fair and cooler conditions appears likely Wednesday PM through much of Thursday, as high pressure noses southward from the Grt Lks, returning temps close to average for late February. All guidance tracks another area of low pressure north from the Gulf Coast late next week. There is significant spread in the forecast track of this system, but the bulk of current guidance tracks a primary low west of Pa with secondary coastal development and a blocking high over New England. This scenario favors a wintry mix for much of central Pa late Thursday into early Friday.

Here is the 12z GFS for Thursday night through Friday snow, sleet & freezing rain.

My overnight low in Marysville was 14

Here is the 6z GFS snow, sleet & freezing rain.

I agree that the High strength & placement looks very good with this Thursday night & Friday event. The model runs that have brought the good snow further south in PA show a weaker & further south 1st wave earlier on Thursday. This allows the Cold fresh High to entrench further south and keeps the boundary closer to the MD line. This then produces for southern PA more snow & sleet vs. freezing rain with the main second wave overnight Thursday through Friday.

Here is another view of the 18z GFS snow, sleet & freezing rain.