Blizzard of 93

Plenty of time for a slight north trend for my backyard to jackpot!

@losetoa6 How is the 18z Euro looking for rain from Elsa for our region? Do you happen to have the rain total map?

Lol, I was just joking around!

Lol… I didn’t know that Harrisburg was 90 miles away from Juniata & Snyder county!

CTP thinks the Eastern part our region is in the game for good rain. Focus shifts to heavy rain potential on Thursday as the approach of mid/upper trough through the Great Lakes combined with moist south/southwest flow ahead of TS Elsa continues to raise concerns about potential heavy rainfall on Thursday. An overall western trend has continued in model guidance today, raising some concerns for my far southeastern counties to potentially be on the periphery of heavy rains. There remains uncertainty in how convective bands may setup, leading to low confidence in how far west precip trends will evolve. WPC D2 SLGT risk ERO (2 out of 4)includes the eastern 1/3 of the CWA. We will continue to monitor with heavy rain/ff becoming the primary hazards on Thursday. As of now, PHI and LWX will be bordering our southeast counties with Flash Flood Watches as 2 to locally 4" is targeting areas just ESE of my counties. Increased cloud cover and anticipated widespread shower activity will shave about 7-10 degrees from recent highs with fcst maxTs in the mid 70s to mid/upper 80s. It will remain humid with dewpoints holding in the 65-70F range. Latest NHC track takes TS Elsa off the NJ coast by 12Z Friday but the cone of uncertainty has been brought a bit farther to the west so we may see some rain from Elsa clip the southeast.

MDT had a high of 96 today, which was 5 degrees short of the daily record.

It’s clouding up here in Marysville now, but it looks like the majority of the storm will pass to my Northwest.

No, below normal in October does us no good for snow chances. Let’s save the below normal temperature months until November and beyond!

Good point! The above normal days really were very above normal, which skewed the average.

Can you please post the event total rain amount from this run if you get the chance?

That would put a dent into the rain deficit.

Nice little breeze outside here this evening.

I like that we had many breaks in the June heat. I also like that we had a cool Memorial Day weekend and July 4th weekend was cool until it warmed up yesterday. This Summer has been tolerable to me up to this point.

CTP is confident in our rain chances on Thursday. Latest NHC track of TS Elsa is consistent keeps it south of the CWA - going offshore around the DelMarVa peninsula early Friday morning. But, the plume of higher/tropical moisture will likely give us extra juice for the showers and storms which form on Thursday. The heavy rain puts us in a MRGL risk for flash flooding for Thurs.

Still 92 at MDT at 7 pm.

MDT made it up to 95 for the high today.

CTP likes our rain chances later this week: Tropical Storm Elsa and its remnants will be tracking northward, likely contributing to moisture in our region. While we will not see direct impacts from Elsa, moisture and upper- level disturbances will likely contribute to higher QPF values Thursday through Friday. GFS and Euro disagree slightly on how quickly Elsa will track northward, but they do agree on keeping Elsa out in the Atlantic. By Thursday afternoon, the upper-level trough axis will be situated over the Ohio Valley region, and the surface low just to the east of the trough. With the influence of upper-level forcing and Elsa approaching from the south contributing plenty of moisture, widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely Thursday through Friday. Temperatures Thursday and Friday will be slightly cooler due to the cold frontal passage and ample cloud cover/rain.

The heat is building back already today. At least we had a nice break for a few days.

Another beautiful below normal July day at MDT with a high temp of 84. Very pleasant evening as well to watch the local backyard fireworks.

Lots of backyard home fireworks shows in Marysville tonight as well!

Glorious morning for early July!

Good morning and Happy 4th of July everyone! Have fun & be safe!

I also noticed that the record high at MDT for today’s date was 107 way back in 1966.

MDT had a high of 77 today and recorded .35 of rain. It is nice to start a month with below normal temps and above normal precip.

That’s really funny! We have 7 and 10 year old daughters, so “Frozen” has been watched a million times in our house!