Blizzard of 93

So are these….for what they are worth after today’s let down… 10-1 & Kuchera

Great call for today by CTP, MU and @canderson !

I agree, a few degrees colder would have helped, but if we had heavier precip at the onset like places to our south, west & east had earlier near daybreak, I think this could have turned out a little bit better. Oh well, onto Saturday!

I agree, it was nice to see snow falling for most of the day, even though it didn’t add up to much in the LSV. The grass & mulch & car tops were covered in northern Harrisburg and Marysville today. Mrs. Blizz and the Blizz kids reported around 2 inches of snow on the grass and car tops at work & school near Duncannon today. This could have easily been an Advisory event for most of the LSV if the radar would have cooperated early this am. Oh well…on to Saturday!

Congrats on the snow today to you and the I-99, 322 & I-80 crew! I agree 100% with you that today the temps were not the issue in the Sus Valley. The main issue was the heavy am precip shield targeted the western half of PA. The other heavy am band split off to the south & east. The Sus Valley was left with light precip until later in the morning, but it was never a sustained heavier band here. Anytime today that the precip rates picked up, it snowed at a good rate with temps near 33 to 34 in northern Harrisburg. Congrats again, but I wish that all of us could have cashed in today.

Same here at this time. The radar was disorganized earlier this morning and the heavy precip was initially pushed off to the southeast of the MD line. Unfortunately that is not what we needed to get a decent snow event going. We needed it to come in like a wall. Hopefully we get a few hours of wet snow this morning and get a couple of inches on the grass.

The Saturday storm looks interesting. This could end up being our best snow week of the season if all goes well tomorrow & Saturday.

The 3k NAM also looks good at 10-1 & Kuchera.

Indeed, here is the 12k NAM at 0z LSV jackpot!

The 18z EPS & 18z Euro Control crush the LSV tomorrow.

My current temp in Marysville is 37 with dew point of 25. I don’t expect temp issues here tomorrow is rates are half decent.

Here is the 18z 10-1 & Kuchera Boom!

The 18z Euro says game on for everyone tomorrow morning!

Elevation will help, but I still think heat islands in the neighborhood of @canderson & MU can do ok tomorrow.

The 18z GFS looks good at 10-1 & Kuchera.

There is a consensus on all models for the LSV to get 2 to 4 inches of snow tomorrow. Both NAMs looked good for most of us at 10-1 & Kuchera.

I think many people in general will be surprised by this storm. If the rates are there, the snow will stick on most surfaces until at least the late am.

I think that there will be more Advisories added later for all except maybe the far southern tier. They might wait until game time.

Here are CTP’s morning discussion thoughts. Model convergence supports high POPs for a period of wet snow over much of the forecast area between dawn Wednesday into early afternoon, as southern stream shortwave lifts through. The weak surface low is progged to track well south of the area, keeping Pa in the cold air. However, marginal surface temps are likely to result in elevation-dependent accumulations, with ptype changing to light rain in the valleys toward midday. Nearly all locations appear likely to see a small accumulation, but confidence in county-wide advisory totals remains low, so will hold off on headlines for now. Best guess of accumulations based on ensemble mean qpf and thermal profiles ranges from 2-3 inches on the ridgetops to less than an inch in the lower elevations of the Lower Susq Valley. Any slushy road surfaces Wed morning should give way to wet roads by afternoon, due to rising temps and increasing March sun angle.

Here are the 6z NAMs & high res Canadian.

Global & short range models are locked in to CTP snow for tomorrow.

Here is the 3k NAM at 0z.

It is now looks like every other model from 12z & 18z. The 0z NAM moved north vs. it’s 18z run. However, the 18z run was well south of all of the other models. Simply put…it now joined the consensus.

Lol…the long range HRRR is like… I need some help here…