Blizzard of 93

There is a consensus on all models for the LSV to get 2 to 4 inches of snow tomorrow. Both NAMs looked good for most of us at 10-1 & Kuchera.

I think many people in general will be surprised by this storm. If the rates are there, the snow will stick on most surfaces until at least the late am.

I think that there will be more Advisories added later for all except maybe the far southern tier. They might wait until game time.

Here are CTP’s morning discussion thoughts. Model convergence supports high POPs for a period of wet snow over much of the forecast area between dawn Wednesday into early afternoon, as southern stream shortwave lifts through. The weak surface low is progged to track well south of the area, keeping Pa in the cold air. However, marginal surface temps are likely to result in elevation-dependent accumulations, with ptype changing to light rain in the valleys toward midday. Nearly all locations appear likely to see a small accumulation, but confidence in county-wide advisory totals remains low, so will hold off on headlines for now. Best guess of accumulations based on ensemble mean qpf and thermal profiles ranges from 2-3 inches on the ridgetops to less than an inch in the lower elevations of the Lower Susq Valley. Any slushy road surfaces Wed morning should give way to wet roads by afternoon, due to rising temps and increasing March sun angle.

Here are the 6z NAMs & high res Canadian.

Global & short range models are locked in to CTP snow for tomorrow.

Here is the 3k NAM at 0z.

It is now looks like every other model from 12z & 18z. The 0z NAM moved north vs. it’s 18z run. However, the 18z run was well south of all of the other models. Simply put…it now joined the consensus.

Lol…the long range HRRR is like… I need some help here…

I like that the timing gets this underway before daybreak. It is important to put down a good base in the am as rates increase.

Our area is due to jackpot! Fill in that seasonal snow hole!

Warning or bust…Lol! My guess for the CTP call is a late WWA for 1 to 3 inches of snow with isolated areas of 4 inches in elevated areas.

18z Euro has a LSV Wednesday jackpot! Here is Kuchera & 10-1. If the rates are there, this could produce!

I’m riding the Canadian models for the Wednesday event. The Canadian sniffed out this event before any other model a few days ago and it has not wavered. Here is the 18z RGEM.

Most models agree with your call. We are due for an over performing storm.

This was the post of the day! So many great points, especially about how March snow can actually accumulate! I laughed out loud and got some strange looks when I read your @canderson comment! Well done….

The 6z GFS & 6z Euro are also onboard!

Just about every model is now showing snow for most of us on Wednesday.

Crazy March weather the next few days with 70 and a thunderstorm chance today and then snow possible on Wednesday.

The 0z RGEM is ready to cover more than just the mulch….

I’ll be happy on Wednesday just to see several hours of snow that stick mainly to the grass & car tops.

Speaking of @canderson The wind today really took away from the warm temperatures. I had shorts & a T-shirt on today, but I needed to put a sweatshirt on for the family early evening walk because of the wind.

So is the Met from MU…. (just kidding Lancaster county posters…!)

18z EPS also ticked further north for the Wednesday snow chance.

The 18z GFS agreed too… I am legit looking forward to the 0z runs tonight!