Blizzard of 93

I still haven’t fully thrown in the towel for the weekend event in the LSV. Maybe there will be a little trend back north with 3 days still to go. The pattern could improve later this month as the MJO is forecast to go into phase 8.

Lol, you can read this a few ways…

It was a great sunset.

I love the reverse psychology…. Lol, See you at 0z !

The 18z EPS control run also gets it done.

Here is the 18z EPS snow map. The best snow this run is in south central CTP, but it involves all of the LSV.

Here is the 18z EPS mean low position at the height of the storm for us.

Apologies for interrupting the “bugs” & “winter’s over forever” posts…. The 18z EPS says CTP & the LSV are very much in the game for the Sunday storm.

Why, it’s Wednesday & the storm isn’t getting to our region until Sunday. We have seen this scenario countless times over the years. The Euro ensemble at 6z today had 2-4 inches of snow across most of CTP. I will “stop” when it is crystal clear it’s not happening.

@MAG5035 Any current thoughts on the weekend storm potential?

Great post from pro Met. @wdrag in the NYC forum that I think could apply to us in Central PA. “fwiw... if the ULL tracks east, probably no go for us n of I80 but if the ULL tracks 1 or 2 degs further N, then I think the I84 corridor has a good chance of deformation zone snow (4") in n-nw edge of 7H LOW where FGEN-convergence occurs. I'll be watching trends in the modeled 7H-5H lows the next several days. In the meantime, 12z op model heights at 500MB are generally 30-60M higher than the 12z EC op. That makes a significant difference in ptype nw edge. Thermal profile are marginal but I'm pretty sure if models reverse the se trend in today's models, that we'll see a pretty decent amount of snow in the Pocs-I84 corridor. This still has a chance to edge a little further north than recently modeled. It's not an overwhelming amount of cooling in the column that is needed, in my opinion. It's latitude of the 7H-5H low that I think is important fgen significant snow N of I80.”

There certainly isn’t a cold front or a pressing High to push it to the south either. The better solutions that showed more snow in CTP on & off the last few days have featured a little more of a progressive system with a good upper low track under us.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see this weekend storm trend a little further north over the next few days to get at least the LSV involved in some Winter weather.

The 6z GFS was close for the LSV this weekend. I think a low taking this track from NC to the DelMarVa would have more precip in general on the northwest side.

Yes & the 0z EPS mean snow map bumped up again as well for this weekend.

Yes, the 0z EPS has a good mean track and multiple low tracks on the individual ensemble members that will work for us.

I’m staying out of this… Lol! @Itstrainingtime will be on here in no time to straighten you guys out!

Snow map on the 18z EPS bumped in the right direction as well.

The 18z EPS also improved for the Sunday chance of a Winter storm.

Positive trends on the models today for the weekend potential. The 18z GFS is right where we want 5 days out…

23 & frost here as well.

The 0z & 6z GFS did not back down on the Winter storm potential this weekend. Both runs have snow in the LSV, but the heaviest is to our south & east. The 0z Euro was a whiff because the storm didn’t get its act together & has some light rain as the low scoots out to sea. Still 5 days to watch this to see if we get lucky in a bad overall pattern.

Great to see the MJO rocketing through the warm phases back towards phase 8 by the 20th. The Euro MJO posted below agrees with the GEFS that you posted as well. Hopefully late February & March bring us a few weeks of solid Winter storm potential.

Now you’re talking! Hopefully we have a strong 4th quarter of Winter.

Well, the happy hour GFS produced the goods, so where is the old snow train?