Morch Madness

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Everything posted by Morch Madness

  1. Yeah this would not be a MECS, but a quick, intense, moisture-packed bomb. Could be a really nice storm.
  2. This is just my opinion, but I think it would be helpful if there were fewer pinned threads. I think having 5 pinned threads makes it a bit harder to navigate, because a number of threads get shoved towards the bottom of the page - the ones that actually are active - and some of the top, pinned threads are not active. I think this makes it harder to get to actual discussion and it make the board "appear" dead. A minor detail but I thought I'd mention it.
  3. I'll be in West Hartford this weekend, but I'd really much rather be in Boston. Not looking forward to low level warmth melting all my snow while Mount Kevin gets 6+" of paste.
  4. I am very ok with today's day 8-14 analogs
  5. I would keep an eye on the clipper in the middle of next week. These events tend to surprise, I wouldn't be shocked if we picked up a few inches then.
  6. For consistent cold and storminess, I'd say the EPO/AO. For blockbuster storms, I'd say PNA/NAO.
  7. If ever there was a time to put aside LR forecasting biases, this is it. This is when pure, objective analysis is paramount, and, as Ray said, this board has done an excellent job. A pleasure to read.
  8. Considering the pattern flip is over 240 hours away, I'd like it if we stop discussing OP model runs at all.
  9. I have to say, I am a fan of this time frame. First, examining the pattern, this appears to be around where the transition to a colder second half of January will occur. The favorable combination of a -AO, +PNA and -EPO look to be present for the foreseeable future, and the NAO looks to be heading neutral or even slightly negative around this time frame. Both the GEFS and the European ensembles have shown an increase in activity from the sub-tropical jet around the 2nd week of January. Tonight's 0z GFS picks up on this threat, as have the past few runs of the GFS. Obviously it's much too early to go into specifics, but it's encouraging to see models picking up on potential disturbances during this time frame, as they would have a good chance at developing into a wintry threat for this area. Whether this threat comes to fruition or not, it is hard to deny the many indicators that point to the second half of January into February being a very nice look the Northeast.
  10. I completely agree with Forky. This board clearly has the highest quality of posters (i.e. most mets and veteran posters), but I think that other boards, like americanwx.com, are set up better with their subforums. For those concerned about differences in climo - the difference between Stove, VT and Boston is significantly greater than the difference between Philly and Boston. The med-long range pattern interests of SNE and Philly are essentially the same, and we can create more localized threads for short-term threats/disco. If you can have Maine and Cape Cod in the same subforum, you can have Philly, NYC and Boston in the same subforum.
  11. Glenn seems to be on board for a mid-Jan pattern change, possible storm around the 10th.
  12. Do you mean January? I think it's kind of early to be talking about February. If anything, it looks like Feb cold should be relatively locked down.
  13. Can I please get a dang snowstorm so I can forget about the Eagles
  14. GEFS are really gung ho on a +PNA through the end of the run. Hard not to like what they're selling.
  15. All-around bad run. Stronger low, weaker high, no shot at a transfer. This was a pretty big shift from 0z.