Morch Madness

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Everything posted by Morch Madness

  1. Not saying it hasn't, but people forget it was the first model to sniff out the blizzard. It's not infallible like we once thought but it is still the best, especially medium to long range.
  2. Every model has sucked this winter, and every model has trended north with the storm. Euro is still the best model in the world, and anyone who is gonna throw it out for future storms because of its recent history had better prepare to be wrong most of the time.
  3. Yes I believe other models may be underestimating the strength of the CAD
  4. Depending on how strong the confluence and 50/50 are, this could be as far north as it comes. I think there is a reasonable chance we see a tick south tomorrow.
  5. I am cautiously optimistic for 12z tomorrow. Even the slightest tick south would be good.
  6. Euro looks decent north of the turnpike. Would not take much at all, literally less than 25 miles, to put PHL back in the heavy snow.
  7. When NYC got screwed with the last storm, you would have thought the MA had just gotten 2 feet of snow. Very bitter, occasionally nasty forum.
  8. 18z GFS looks like a nice front-end thump PHL north
  9. Yeah haha, that's assuming you care about the NAM at all. If I could pick one model that I wouldn't mind portraying a less than optimal solution, it would be the NAM 72 hours out.
  10. NESIS stands for Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale, so whatever happens in the Midwest doesn't matter. This won't be a very high NESIS storm anyways as the snowfall amounts won't be terribly high. Still a big event though.
  11. It wasn't gonna change from 12z anyways. Nothing to get terribly concerned about, at least until tonight's runs.
  12. He's hilarious, I love Mikehobbyist posts. Last year he predicted 50" snow depths in Central Park and a frozen Hudson until May. He's the apex of weenieism and I love it.
  13. The idea of a cutter is pretty much dead at this point. The high to the north is clearly stronger than the high over the Atlantic, and the PV is not going to let this thing ride up into Canada.
  14. No, much different setup, but still lots of potential. Certainly no ridiculous amounts like last time, but a solid 8-12/10-14" of heavy wet snow is possible
  15. I would be surprised if it didn't, this is a pretty good setup
  16. The low really bombs out as well, if we could somehow get this thing to slow down it could be much better. The NAO appears to be heading slightly negative around that time, hopefully it can jam it up enough. Verbatim, it's still a really powerful thump of heavy, wet snow.
  17. This has all the makings of another impossibly difficult forecast. I hope mets are extremely conservative in talking about this storm.
  18. Very true, I'd really want 100% model consensus before feeling confident in any storm after this. I would not start getting excited until the GFS/CMC catch on.
  19. Certainly does. Euro shows a potent Miller A on it's tail just 3 days later as well.
  20. Followed by Miller A potential 3 days later. Great run.
  21. Fair I guess. I just think after this past storm these boards would be better off with fewer clown maps.
  22. Just when I think it's over, it keeps on coming. Historic does not do this storm justice.
  23. Do you really want more Euro snow maps lol. The only thing that matters is that its a better run for the area. Pointless to ogle over day 5 snow amounts.