WxMan1

https://twitter.com/MikeTrout/status/1486854871743610881?t=g6qqB584yfS5ccOi5m4m1Q&s=19

It's like a Cowboys fan (like me) recalling the glory days, now over a quarter century ago. Thankfully we don't have to wait that long for a historic, at least Top 10 snowfall around these parts. Reminisce with these GEFS panels just before the 1/22-23 event 6 years ago. Every member had at least a foot for DCA. We'll get there again someday, and it will be oh-so-sweet when it happens!

They're already on it...wowzers...their storm thread is over 300 pages now. I already know 2 folks flying out of BWI tomorrow to go chase.

Op GFS reminding us that the in-situ dry slot can be a real deal with a transfer/low deepening offshore. What's more, I think we're all wary of several hours of pixie dust snow/lack of dendritic growth and light rates when it actually does snow. I have no idea what the 'bar' for this storm is yet. 2-4" for the Beltway region? Sure, let's start there..

Nice lift in the dendritic growth zone at FH084 around DCA.

I had a heck of a time getting the cities to match up with the graphic. Thankfully the shift before last night got the key messages started. Notice how the probs went up, especially in New England. We also now see the storm in the day 4 WSO! Let's hope the probs keep going up for us!!

That would be a second time this winter for us easterners. I had 10.25" with the Jan 3rd system here in Crofton.

Hello all! I figured this forum (banter) would be as good as any to put this in. Many have been talking about Miller A vs B. A few years back we did a review of the Miller Cyclone classification system -- based off of James E. Miller's research that was published in the Journal of Meteorology (June 1946). We also applied the classification to some more recent examples (and by recent, I mean the past 10-15 years). As many of you noted, there are many "hybrid" A/B types, but even in those situations, the characteristics are going to be either A or B dominant. Not the gospel on the subject by any means, but I thought perhaps it would provide a little more clarity to the topic. Or not. Miller_Cyclogenesis_Classification_US_Atlantic_Coastal_Region.pdf

GFS is pretty bullish with the snow *fall*, but this could be one of those instances (ground sfc temps initially) where the actual snow is closer to the pos snow depth change map, or something between the two..

AVN's claim to fame: It NAILED the March 12-13 1993 Superstorm/Storm of the Century at least 5 days prior. It was very well forecasted, much like the Jan 22 2016 was once we got within 120 hours.

I hear ya. Gonna be 52. DiFax charts with the ETA, but before that, the NGM, AVN, MRF, and (*cough*) LFM. Baratropic model was a little before my time (Thank God).

Yes, we definitely cannot sleep on that potential next Fri-Sat, 28-29th.

There was also the Boxing Day snow on Dec 26, 2004. Same day as the big Tsunami in Indonesia. I was working at the Wakefield NWS at the time. 8" in Norfolk, 13" in Newport News, and 3.1" at the Wakefield NWS. Back at my house in Chester -- less than an inch. Wild storm.

If off of the WPC's interactive surface analysis website... https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfc-zoom.php You can also use this one to overlay satellite imagery (data quality of course dependent on how far back you go)...just click the 'archive' tab in the upper right to get to the event you're looking for, and the tab on the upper left to choose what kind of satellite imagery you want to overlay.. https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfc-zoomIR.php

It was also during Super Bowl 25, I believe the Giants vs. the Broncos. I believe the forecast for my area (West Springfield at the time) was 6-10", and we ended up getting around a foot. Fluffy stuff. At one point, DCA was getting several hours of mod-heavy snow with temps in the upper teens.

Yeah, it certainly looks like a cold system at low levels (surface temps in the 20s), but as we know, what do the thermals aloft look like, and in particular, the lift in the DGZ? Waaay to early to quibble over those details -- the 850/700/500/250mb setup looks terrific, as does the surface low track. Reminds me a little of the Jan 26 1987 system (2nd one)...the cold Miller A that isn't overly explosive going up the coast. At least for now..

Irony... There were people that couldn't believe we'd have snow and temps falling into the 20s during the day on Monday, Jan 3, with highs in the 60s the previous day. And yet here we are today, temps in the mid 20s, dewpoints 0 to -6F, and yet we could be looking at plain rain in a little over 24 hours. Just goes to show how it all comes down to the storm track (dictated by upper levels) and where the winds are blowing in from.

Absolutely spot on! While not the result we all want, it's such an anomalous track, which in of itself it pretty cool. My neighbors now have discovered a new way of figuring out whether or not we're going to get a big winter storm. Since the pandemic, we've had the capability of working forecast ops from home. It's a great option too when the roads are awful. So my neighbors wait to see if I'm going to work (College Park). If the meteorologist leaves his house to go to work, they know we're not getting much. I told them all yesterday I'll be driving to work, lol.

CPC earlier this morning was talking about the spread among the ensembles with respect to the AO (in particular) at 2 weeks. Pretty good polarity with some of the members, indicative of some key players that need to be resolved over the next week.

Yeppers...

Seems like the over/under is 2-3" for many of us near/along the beltway in this setup. As noted, when the models suggest maybe 6 hours of snow, it's more like 3-4 before the mix. We can get a quick 2+ inches though because of good rates in that 3-4 hour burst.

I've seen this script before, as have many (all?) of you being active in this and the Eastern US weather boards over the last 15+ years. My bar along and east of 95 here in the beltway region is 2.5-3.5" before the flip. Yes, with strong WAA and a retreating high the snow always seems to come in faster. ...but then the changeover seems to happen a little quicker too. I have no issues with the GFS snow maps given what we know now.

Yeah, awfully tough to not given the 60-70kt winds between 925-850mb.

I think it's all good. Perhaps because MBY has already received 14" in Jan, including a little over 10" last Monday. With a La Niña, and being in the perfect spot 1/3, it's like playing with house $ at this point. I'd be more than happy to take 4-6" of clingy, greasy heavy wet snow while others have their turn getting heavier amounts this time around.

Yeah. I think we can get to 4-6" in a lot of areas with around 6 hours before the flip. Like low-end warning criteria that someone pointed out.