WxMan1

I feel like we've seen this script before so many times. But 6 hours of snow, with a couple 1-1.5"/hr rates before the flip, and overall averaging ~0.75+"/hr for that 6+ hour period = ~4-6" for a lot of us beltwayers before *hopefully* a flip to dry slot heavy drizzle vs. pouring rain.

You all may have touched on this already... The best case for us along/near the I95 corridor is a WAA thump that transitions to a light sleety/rain mix, or even better, drizzly dry slot, so the rain doesn't wash all the snow away. We've seen setups like this over the past several years, where that heavy rain phase doesn't come to fruition because of the timing of the transfer and a more pervasive dry slot than what was originally advertised 5 days out. I'll gladly take 4-6" of a WAA thump followed by drizzle.

Amen. Saw that with the Feb 2014 storm. Was around 20 or in the lower 20s when the snow began. Thought it would take a long while, then the winds started shifting from the east and picked up. Temps climbed into the lower 30s very quickly.

Yeah, the 02/2014 system was definitely a climatological Miller A for us. IMBY (Crofton/central AA County), we had 7.5" WAA snow to start, and at the onset it was oh so cold, then the flip to sleet, rain, and drizzly dry slot. But the best part about it was the 3-5" of backside CCB snows the following day (afternoon). I had 11-12" total, but you folks n and w of the fall line had at least 12" with round 1 alone.

Model panel-by-panel play-by-play. That's when you know things are getting interesting.

If we are, then it's about damn time. Our last El Niño was 6 years ago. We are due.

Yes. The 06Z GFS has that more classic Miller A track, which would equate to a more climo snowfall distribution. In other words, MBY here near Rte 50 east of 95 would more likely have some mixing potential than be in the max snow zone this time around.

That's a hint of the Feb 9-11, 1973 storm that brought 23" of snow to Sumter SC. Too bad I was only 2 1/2 and don't remember a thing about it. (My Dad was stationed at Shaw AFB at the time).

That 12Z GFS is straight-up meteorological porn.

Measured 3.75" in Crofton, which along with the 10.25" on Monday 1/3, brings my seasonal total up to an even 14 inches.

What sucks is when you have an operational shift on site.

What a glorious 4-5 day period that was. In West Springfield I had 11.5" on Thursday 1/22/87, then another 11" the day and night of Super Bowl Sunday, 1/25 into the early morning hours of 1/26. Fond memories.

Low was 10.2 here in Crofton. 10-10.5" of snow yesterday, compacted closer to 8" now.

I remember that one. Jan 2-3, 2002. We did very well in south-central VA (I was working at AKQ at the time). That was a clean, all snow event for all of southern VA -- a rarity!

Do you happen to know offhand how the west-NW end did? Short Pump, Glen Allen, Midlo?

The last hurrah. 10.5" in Crofton with clumping flakes now along that last def band. Just an incredible event.

The GFS led the way with this system, let us not forget. I even recall it had *something* at times for Jan 3-4 10-14 days out. In the near term, NAM3 did well, as did the HRRR and RGEM (generally). The sharp deformation and S-N gradient was nailed.

9.5" as of noon here in Crofton, central AA County. 5.5" since 9 am. Just 1/2 inch more please!

Here in Crofton, central AA County... 4" at 9 am... 6.5" at 10 am... 8.0" at 11 am. 4 glorious inches in the past 2 hours. Picking up the pace again. God forbid we go down to *only* 1"/hr! ❄️☃️

Here in Crofton... 4.0" as of 9 am... 6.5" as of 10 am Still pouring snow. ☃️❄️

Absolutely! This is heaven!

4" even on the deck here in Crofton. 32F. Coming down at a good pace.

You're not kidding with the 06Z NAM. We're gonna be right on the edge of that jackpot here in the Crofton-Bowie area.

Steady snow snow in Crofton/central AA County, 32.2F. Pasty 0.5" accumulation.

04Z continues the string of crush jobs across the sub forum from the HRRR. Not concerned about absolute values here with the snow totals (I'd be happy with 75% TBH), but the location (and trends) with the max snow axes. HRRR continues to be not as far south. 04Z HRRR snow thorough 17Z, and still snowing.